Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚛馃嚜 2. Bundesliga

league draws 24% · chaos 33orderly

1. FC Heidenheim (3rd) v Holstein Kiel (16th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: 1. FC HEIDENHEIM
1 43%
X 27%
2 30%
Prediction: 1. FC Heidenheim to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 66%
vs performances: 1. FC Heidenheim +0.40 (3g) · Holstein Kiel -1.08 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes 1. FC Heidenheim narrow favourites at 43%, with Holstein Kiel at 30% and the draw at 27%. 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3 of their last five (11 scored, 10 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 66%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 66%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with 1. FC Heidenheim the stronger. Watch Frank Feller 馃嚛馃嚜 and A. Ibrahimovi膰 for 1. FC Heidenheim, and Phil Harres 馃嚛馃嚜 and David Zec 馃嚫馃嚠 for Holstein Kiel.

1. FC Heidenheim: Small-town overachievers (Heidenheim), a modest-budget Bundesliga side that reached Europe in 24/25; tiny Voith-Arena on a hill. · Holstein Kiel: Schleswig-Holstein club, a modern overachiever recently in the Bundesliga; the small Holstein-Stadion.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

1. FC Heidenheim (3rd)

Small-town overachievers (Heidenheim), a modest-budget Bundesliga side that reached Europe in 24/25; tiny Voith-Arena on a hill. Predicted qualifier; disciplined, punches above its size.

Squad quality 64.3 in league · 3rd of 15
Seasons 2026 so far: 3rd (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 SpVgg Greuther F眉rth2. Bundesliga
  • WH5-3 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • LA1-4 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • WH4-3 VfL Osnabr眉ck2. Bundesliga
  • LH0-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYN match totals 7,5,8,1
Key players Michael Heule 馃嚚馃嚟 62.9, Marcel Costly 62.6, Jan Sch枚ppner 馃嚛馃嚜 60.1, Patrick Mainka 馃嚛馃嚜 57.0, Budu Zivzivadze 馃嚞馃嚜 55.0
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 23 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃嚞馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
293rd08-08 v VfL Osnabr眉ck: +2.308-15 v Hertha BSC: -4.508-29 v Dynamo Dresden: +3.909-06 v SpVgg Greuther F眉rth: +2.0

Holstein Kiel (16th)

Schleswig-Holstein club, a modern overachiever recently in the Bundesliga; the small Holstein-Stadion. Attacking, well-run, yo-yo profile with a tiny ground.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 30.1 in league · 14th of 15
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 16th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 1. FC N眉rnberg2. Bundesliga
  • LA0-2 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • DH2-2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • DA2-2 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • LA1-2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 3,4,4,2,4
Key players Guillermo Balzi 馃嚘馃嚪 61.5, Phil Harres 馃嚛馃嚜 59.2, John Tolkin 馃嚭馃嚫 49.8, Jonas Therkelsen 馃嚦馃嚧 49.7, Ivan Neki膰 馃嚟馃嚪 49.4
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 22 路 馃嚫馃嚜 3 路 馃嚫馃嚠 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
61716th08-08 v SV Darmstadt 98: +0.308-14 v FC St. Pauli: -0.208-30 v 1. FC Magdeburg: -2.409-05 v 1. FC N眉rnberg: +0.0
league draws 24% · chaos 33orderly

Karlsruher SC (9th) v Energie Cottbus (11th)

1 42%
X 27%
2 31%
Prediction: Karlsruher SC to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 77%
vs performances: Karlsruher SC +0.23 (3g) · Energie Cottbus +0.06 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes Karlsruher SC narrow favourites at 42%, with Energie Cottbus at 31% and the draw at 27%. Both teams to score looks likely at 75%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 77%. Watch Marvin Wanitzek 馃嚛馃嚜 and Fabian Schleusener 馃嚛馃嚜 for Karlsruher SC.

Karlsruher SC: Baden club (KSC), historic Bundesliga side with a loyal following; the modern BBBank Wildpark. · Energie Cottbus: Eastern club (Lausitz) with a fervent, notorious ultra following; the Stadion der Freundschaft.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Karlsruher SC (9th)

Baden club (KSC), historic Bundesliga side with a loyal following; the modern BBBank Wildpark. Solid mid-table second-tier fixture.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 28.9 in league · 15th of 15
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 9th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • LH2-5 VfL Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga
  • DA0-0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • WH2-1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • LH1-2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,3,0,7,4
Key players Marvin Wanitzek 馃嚛馃嚜 76.7, Shio Fukuda聽 馃嚡馃嚨 62.3, Marcel Franke 馃嚛馃嚜 51.4, Fabian Schleusener 馃嚛馃嚜 49.9, Stephan Ambrosius 馃嚞馃嚟 48.9
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 20 路 馃嚚馃嚟 1 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
399th08-08 v Arminia Bielefeld: +2.108-15 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern: -0.108-29 v VfL Wolfsburg: -4.809-04 v Hannover 96: +0.0

Energie Cottbus (11th)

Eastern club (Lausitz) with a fervent, notorious ultra following; the Stadion der Freundschaft. Back up the pyramid, atmosphere well above the level.

Seasons 2026 so far: 11th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA4-4 VfL Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga
  • LH3-4 SpVgg Greuther F眉rth2. Bundesliga
  • LA0-3 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • WH3-1 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYY match totals 4,3,7,8
Key players Marcel Lotka 馃嚨馃嚤 64.0, Tolcay Ci臒erci 63.4, Leonardo Bittencourt 馃嚛馃嚜 63.2, Lukas Michelbrink 46.5, Luca Erlein 45.1
Season pulse season 2026
31411th08-09 v Hannover 96: +2.308-16 v Arminia Bielefeld: -5.508-29 v SpVgg Greuther F眉rth: -1.509-05 v VfL Wolfsburg: +0.0
league draws 24% · chaos 33orderly

VfL Osnabr眉ck (7th) v Hertha BSC (1st)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↓ Hertha BSC TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -49
1 37%
X 28%
2 35%
Prediction: VfL Osnabr眉ck to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
vs performances: VfL Osnabr眉ck +0.20 (3g) · Hertha BSC +1.38 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes VfL Osnabr眉ck the marginal call at 37%, with Hertha BSC at 35% and the draw at 28%. Hertha BSC arrive on a 4-game winning run (13 scored, 11 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Fabian Reese 馃嚛馃嚜 and Marten Winkler 馃嚛馃嚜 for Hertha BSC.

VfL Osnabr眉ck: Lower-Saxony club (the Lila-Weissen), passionate Bremer Br眉cke support; yo-yo lower-second-tier side, atmosphere above the level, survival-focused. · Hertha BSC: Berlin giant, big-city club with a huge fanbase and heavy financial baggage; the Olympiastadion (70k+).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

VfL Osnabr眉ck (7th)

Lower-Saxony club (the Lila-Weissen), passionate Bremer Br眉cke support; yo-yo lower-second-tier side, atmosphere above the level, survival-focused.

Seasons 2026 so far: 7th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga
  • WA1-0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • LH0-3 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • LA3-4 1. FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNY match totals 7,3,1,4
Key players Adrian Beck 57.9, Niklas Wiemann 56.3, Bjarke Jacobsen 54.9, Konrad Faber 馃嚛馃嚜 53.1, Robin Mei脽ner 馃嚛馃嚜 52.6
Season pulse season 2026
8188th08-08 v 1. FC Heidenheim: -2.308-15 v 1. FC Magdeburg: -4.408-28 v VfL Bochum: +1.409-06 v Eintracht Braunschweig: +3.0

Hertha BSC (1st)

Berlin giant, big-city club with a huge fanbase and heavy financial baggage; the Olympiastadion (70k+). Fallen from the Bundesliga, rebuilding on a stretched budget.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 66.7 in league · 2nd of 15
Seasons 2024: 11th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 1st (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • WA5-3 Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga
  • WH4-1 1. FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • WA1-0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • LA1-6 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 7,1,5,8,3
Key players Josip Brekalo 馃嚟馃嚪 71.2, Julian Eitschberger 馃嚛馃嚜 61.4, Niklas Kolbe 馃嚛馃嚜 60.4, Toni Leistner 馃嚛馃嚜 58.6, Deyovaisio Zeefuik 馃嚦馃嚤 58.3
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 24 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
151st08-07 v VfL Bochum: +1.808-15 v 1. FC Heidenheim: +4.508-28 v Eintracht Braunschweig: +3.509-06 v 1. FC Magdeburg: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.