Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚛馃嚜 2. Bundesliga

league draws 24% · chaos 33orderly

VfL Bochum (6th) v SpVgg Greuther F眉rth (13th)

1 51%
X 26%
2 24%
Prediction: VfL Bochum to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 60%
vs performances: VfL Bochum -0.69 (3g) · SpVgg Greuther F眉rth -0.11 (3g)
xG overlay · SpVgg Greuther F眉rth better on chances than on results by 0.13 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes VfL Bochum narrow favourites at 51%, with SpVgg Greuther F眉rth at 24% and the draw at 26%. VfL Bochum have won 3 of their last five (5 scored, 4 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 60%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 60%. Watch Philipp Hofmann 馃嚛馃嚜 and Maximilian Wittek 馃嚛馃嚜 for VfL Bochum, and Noel Futkeu 馃嚛馃嚜 and Branimir Hrgota 馃嚫馃嚜 for SpVgg Greuther F眉rth.

VfL Bochum: Ruhr club with a loyal, working-class following and a raucous Vonovia Ruhrstadion; recently a long-running Bundesliga side, now down. · SpVgg Greuther F眉rth: Franconian club, perennial second-tier fixture with a brief Bundesliga cameo; the compact Ronhof.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

VfL Bochum (6th)

Ruhr club with a loyal, working-class following and a raucous Vonovia Ruhrstadion; recently a long-running Bundesliga side, now down. Gritty, atmosphere-driven.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 55.6 in league · 8th of 15
Seasons 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 6th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • LH0-1 VfL Osnabr眉ck2. Bundesliga
  • WA1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga
  • LH0-1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • WA2-1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,1,1,3
Key players Philipp Hofmann 馃嚛馃嚜 64.1, Timo Horn 馃嚛馃嚜 62.2, Maximilian Wittek 馃嚛馃嚜 60.5, Philipp Strompf 馃嚛馃嚜 58.4, Michael Steinwender 馃嚘馃嚬 54.8
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 26 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚫馃嚢 1 路 馃嚥馃嚤 1 路 馃嚚馃嚟 1 路 馃嚨馃嚟 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
6186th08-07 v Hertha BSC: -1.808-14 v Eintracht Braunschweig: +1.908-28 v VfL Osnabr眉ck: -1.409-05 v Dynamo Dresden: +2.0

SpVgg Greuther F眉rth (13th)

Franconian club, perennial second-tier fixture with a brief Bundesliga cameo; the compact Ronhof. Develops and sells, fierce N眉rnberg derby.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 32.0 in league · 13th of 15
Seasons 2024: 13th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 13th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 1. FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • WA4-3 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
  • LH2-4 1. FC N眉rnberg2. Bundesliga
  • DA1-1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • WH2-0 Rot-Wei脽 Essen2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 2,2,6,7,1
Key players Felix Klaus 馃嚛馃嚜 66.2, Philipp Ziereis 馃嚛馃嚜 54.3, Shinta Karl Appelkamp 馃嚛馃嚜 53.5, Florian Hellstern 馃嚛馃嚜 52.9, Paul Will 馃嚛馃嚜 51.7
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 20 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚤馃嚭 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
51713th08-09 v FC St. Pauli: -0.208-15 v 1. FC N眉rnberg: -2.208-29 v Energie Cottbus: +1.509-06 v 1. FC Heidenheim: -2.0
league draws 24% · chaos 33orderly

Eintracht Braunschweig (14th) v Dynamo Dresden (17th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 41%
X 28%
2 32%
Prediction: Eintracht Braunschweig to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
vs performances: Eintracht Braunschweig -0.67 (3g) · Dynamo Dresden +0.01 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes Eintracht Braunschweig the marginal call at 41%, with Dynamo Dresden at 32% and the draw at 28%. Eintracht Braunschweig have lost 3 straight (10 scored, 11 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Mehmet Ayd谋n 馃嚬馃嚪 and Kevin Ehlers 馃嚛馃嚜 for Eintracht Braunschweig, and Alexander Rossipal 馃嚛馃嚜 and Niklas Hauptmann 馃嚛馃嚜 for Dynamo Dresden.

Eintracht Braunschweig: Historic club, 1967 German champions; the Eintracht-Stadion, loyal Lower-Saxony support. · Dynamo Dresden: Eastern institution with one of Germany's biggest, most fervent (and volatile) fanbases; the Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Eintracht Braunschweig (14th)

Historic club, 1967 German champions; the Eintracht-Stadion, loyal Lower-Saxony support. Yo-yo second-tier side, survival-scrappy.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 32.8 in league · 12th of 15
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2024: 14th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 14th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 VfL Osnabr眉ck2. Bundesliga
  • LH3-5 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • LH0-1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • WA6-1 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • LA0-1 FC Schalke 042. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 1,7,1,8,4
Key players Yann Sturm 62.9, Max Marie 馃嚛馃嚜 52.3, Mehmet Ayd谋n 馃嚬馃嚪 52.3, Kevin Ehlers 馃嚛馃嚜 52.0, Florian Flick 馃嚛馃嚜 51.3
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 23 路 馃嚬馃嚪 2 路 馃嚬馃嚦 1 路 馃嚟馃嚭 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
11414th08-08 v 1. FC Magdeburg: +6.008-14 v VfL Bochum: -1.908-28 v Hertha BSC: -3.509-06 v VfL Osnabr眉ck: -3.0

Dynamo Dresden (17th)

Eastern institution with one of Germany's biggest, most fervent (and volatile) fanbases; the Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion. Passionate support far above its league level.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 37.3 in league · 11th of 15
Seasons 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 17th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • LA3-5 1. FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • WH1-0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • LA0-3 1. FC N眉rnberg2. Bundesliga
  • WH2-1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,3,1,8,3
Key players Ben Justus Bobzien 馃嚛馃嚜 58.4, Vincent Vermeij 馃嚦馃嚤 58.3, Alexander Rossipal 馃嚛馃嚜 56.5, Thomas Keller 馃嚛馃嚜 50.7, Niklas Hauptmann 馃嚛馃嚜 50.6
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 28 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1
Season pulse season 2026
111717th08-09 v 1. FC N眉rnberg: -4.508-16 v SV Darmstadt 98: +2.108-29 v 1. FC Heidenheim: -3.909-05 v VfL Bochum: -2.0
league draws 24% · chaos 33orderly

1. FC Magdeburg (8th) v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (5th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 40%
X 28%
2 32%
Prediction: 1. FC Magdeburg to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 58%
vs performances: 1. FC Magdeburg +1.01 (3g) · 1. FC Kaiserslautern +0.47 (3g)
xG overlay · 1. FC Magdeburg better on chances than on results by 0.32 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes 1. FC Magdeburg the marginal call at 40%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 32% and the draw at 28%. 1. FC Kaiserslautern are unbeaten in five (6 scored, 1 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 58%. Watch Bar谋艧 Atik 馃嚬馃嚪 and Mateusz 呕ukowski 馃嚨馃嚤 for 1. FC Magdeburg, and Naatan Skytt盲 馃嚝馃嚠 and Semih 艦ahin 馃嚛馃嚜 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

1. FC Magdeburg: Eastern club, 1974 Cup Winners' Cup winners; passionate MDCC-Arena support. · 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Fallen giant, 1998 Bundesliga champions with a vast fanbase; the cavernous Betzenberg (Fritz-Walter-Stadion), one of Germany's great atmospheres.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

1. FC Magdeburg (8th)

Eastern club, 1974 Cup Winners' Cup winners; passionate MDCC-Arena support. Attacking, well-coached second-tier side pushing toward the Bundesliga.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 59.0 in league · 6th of 15
Seasons 2024: 5th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 8th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • WH2-0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • WA3-0 VfL Osnabr眉ck2. Bundesliga
  • LH1-6 Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga
  • LH0-1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 1,7,3,2,3
Key players Dominik Reimann 馃嚛馃嚜 73.2, Bar谋艧 Atik 馃嚬馃嚪 67.5, Alexander Nollenberger 馃嚛馃嚜 60.6, Mateusz 呕ukowski 馃嚨馃嚤 59.8, Luka Hyrylainen 57.6
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 19 路 馃嚝馃嚪 4 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
5187th08-08 v Eintracht Braunschweig: -6.008-15 v VfL Osnabr眉ck: +4.408-30 v Holstein Kiel: +2.409-06 v Hertha BSC: -2.0

1. FC Kaiserslautern (5th)

Fallen giant, 1998 Bundesliga champions with a vast fanbase; the cavernous Betzenberg (Fritz-Walter-Stadion), one of Germany's great atmospheres. Sleeping giant chasing a top-flight return.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 57.1 in league · 7th of 15
Seasons 2024: 7th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 5th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • WA2-1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • DH0-0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • DA0-0 VfL Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga
  • WA1-0 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,0,0,3,3
Key players Jan Elvedi 馃嚚馃嚟 68.9, Julian Krahl 馃嚛馃嚜 67.2, Semih 艦ahin 馃嚛馃嚜 60.5, Maxwell Gyamfi 馃嚛馃嚜 60.0, Jacob Rasmussen 馃嚛馃嚢 57.8
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 23 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚘馃嚳 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚚馃嚟 1 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
3144th08-08 v VfL Wolfsburg: -0.208-15 v Karlsruher SC: +0.108-30 v FC St. Pauli: +1.809-05 v SV Darmstadt 98: +4.0
league draws 24% · chaos 33orderly

FC St. Pauli (15th) v VfL Wolfsburg (4th)

↓ VfL Wolfsburg TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -62
1 50%
X 26%
2 24%
Prediction: FC St. Pauli to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 64%
vs performances: FC St. Pauli -1.00 (3g) · VfL Wolfsburg +0.50 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes FC St. Pauli narrow favourites at 50%, with VfL Wolfsburg at 24% and the draw at 26%. VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in five (10 scored, 6 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 65%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 64%.

FC St. Pauli: Hamburg's cult left-wing club, famed worldwide for its fanbase and Millerntor atmosphere; recently in the Bundesliga. · VfL Wolfsburg: Volkswagen-backed club, 2009 Bundesliga champions and a top-flight fixture for over two decades, now dropped to the second tier; the Volkswagen Arena.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FC St. Pauli (15th)

FOREIGN CORE 82%

Hamburg's cult left-wing club, famed worldwide for its fanbase and Millerntor atmosphere; recently in the Bundesliga. Distinctive identity, passionate sell-out support.

Style Territorial control from 2023
Squad quality 62.6 in league · 4th of 15
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2026 so far: 15th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • LH1-2 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • DA2-2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • DH1-1 SpVgg Greuther F眉rth2. Bundesliga
  • LH1-3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,2,4,3,4
Key players Marcus Mathisen 馃嚛馃嚢 71.3, David Nemeth 馃嚘馃嚬 57.6, Mathias Rasmussen 馃嚦馃嚧 57.3, Branimir Hrgota 馃嚫馃嚜 56.4, Arkadiusz Pyrka 馃嚨馃嚤 56.4
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 6 路 馃嚡馃嚨 4 路 馃嚘馃嚬 3 路 馃嚘馃嚭 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 +14 more
Season pulse season 2026
81615th08-09 v SpVgg Greuther F眉rth: +0.208-14 v Holstein Kiel: +0.208-30 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern: -1.809-04 v Arminia Bielefeld: +0.0

VfL Wolfsburg (4th)

FOREIGN CORE 70%

Volkswagen-backed club, 2009 Bundesliga champions and a top-flight fixture for over two decades, now dropped to the second tier; the Volkswagen Arena. Well-resourced, expected to bounce straight back.

Squad quality 71.5 in league · 1st of 15
Seasons 2026 so far: 4th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH4-4 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
  • WA5-2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • WA1-0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • DH0-0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • LA1-2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYY match totals 0,1,7,8
Key players Fabian Reese 馃嚛馃嚜 75.5, Alexander Bernhardsson 馃嚫馃嚜 66.0, Vin铆cius Souza 馃嚙馃嚪 62.1, Robert Glatzel 馃嚛馃嚜 58.4, Fraser Hornby 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 57.3
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 11 路 馃嚛馃嚢 6 路 馃嚨馃嚤 3 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
3135th08-08 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern: +0.208-16 v Hannover 96: +2.208-29 v Karlsruher SC: +4.809-05 v Energie Cottbus: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.