Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚝馃嚠 Veikkausliiga

league draws 24% · chaos 64lively

Mariehamn (12th) v Turku PS (8th)

1 23%
X 25%
2 52%
Prediction: Turku PS to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
vs performances: Mariehamn -0.29 (5g) · Turku PS -0.31 (4g)
Match preview

The model makes Turku PS narrow favourites at 52%, with Mariehamn at 23% and the draw at 25%. Mariehamn have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 6 conceded). Turku PS are unbeaten in five (5 scored, 3 conceded). Watch Sebastian Dahlstr枚m 馃嚝馃嚠 and Noah Nurmi 馃嚝馃嚠 for Mariehamn.

Mariehamn: Aland Islands club - every away team ferries/flies to the archipelago, a unique travel quirk. · Turku PS: TPS: historic 8-time champions promoted back via the 2025 playoff after 5 years away.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Mariehamn (12th)

Aland Islands club - every away team ferries/flies to the archipelago, a unique travel quirk. 2026 is disastrous: winless (0-4-11, 8:33). 2016 champions now overwhelming relegation favourites.

Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 12th (14 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 LahtiVeikkausliiga
  • WH2-0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
  • WA4-2 KuPSVeikkausliiga
  • WH2-0 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • LA0-2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 2,2,6,2,3
Key players Jiri Nissinen 馃嚝馃嚠 33.1, Jelle van der Heyden 馃嚦馃嚤 27.5, Noah Nurmi 馃嚝馃嚠 26.4, Samson Ngulube 25.5, Emmanuel Patut 馃嚝馃嚠 24.2
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 23 路 馃嚫馃嚜 8 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 3 路 馃嚚馃嚮 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
61212th07-04 v VPS: -5.007-11 v Gnistan: -3.007-20 v Lahti: -3.007-25 v AC Oulu: +0.008-01 v Turku PS: -4.008-09 v Ilves: -3.008-15 v SJK: +3.008-23 v KuPS: +3.008-31 v FF Jaro: +3.009-08 v Lahti: -2.0

Turku PS (8th)

TPS: historic 8-time champions promoted back via the 2025 playoff after 5 years away. Mid-table on return (7th, 22pts) - solid. Shares Veritas with Inter; derby heat real. Safe-mid trajectory.

Seasons 2026 so far: 8th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • DA1-1 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • DH0-0 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
  • WA3-1 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • DA1-1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 2,4,0,2,0
Key players Matej Hradecky 34.7, Pau Juvanteny 馃嚜馃嚫 28.0, Elmo Henriksson 馃嚝馃嚠 23.5
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 13 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚙馃嚡 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
188th07-04 v SJK: -3.007-11 v AC Oulu: +4.007-20 v Ilves: -3.007-26 v HJK Helsinki: -2.008-01 v Mariehamn: +4.008-09 v KuPS: +0.008-14 v VPS: +3.008-23 v Inter Turku: +0.008-31 v Gnistan: +0.009-08 v SJK: +0.0
league draws 24% · chaos 64lively

Ilves (9th) v Lahti (6th)

1 49%
X 25%
2 25%
Prediction: Ilves to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 49%
vs performances: Ilves -0.24 (7g) · Lahti +0.10 (6g)
Match preview

The model makes Ilves narrow favourites at 49%, with Lahti at 25% and the draw at 25%. Lahti arrive on a 3-game winning run (6 scored, 4 conceded). Watch Lauri Ala-Myllymaki for Ilves, and Martim Ferreira 馃嚨馃嚬 and T貌fol Montiel 馃嚜馃嚫 for Lahti.

Ilves: Tampere club, 2024-25 European participant; poor 2026 (9th, 16pts, conceding heavily incl 0-5 at Lahti). · Lahti: Bounced straight back up as Ykkosliiga champions; solid 8th (19pts) mid-2026, incl a 5-0 over Ilves.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Ilves (9th)

Tampere club, 2024-25 European participant; poor 2026 (9th, 16pts, conceding heavily incl 0-5 at Lahti). Ratina shared. Underperforming talent; mid-table rescue mission.

Squad quality 53.9 in league · 2nd of 3
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 9th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
  • LH1-2 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
  • LH0-1 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • LA2-3 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • DH1-1 HNK RijekaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 2,5,1,3,2
Key players Teemu Hyt枚nen 馃嚝馃嚠 38.9, Maksim Stjopin 馃嚝馃嚠 37.7, Anton Popovitch 馃嚝馃嚠 36.6, Tatu Miettunen 馃嚝馃嚠 35.8, Jesse Kilo 馃嚝馃嚠 35.4
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 27 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚤馃嚮 1 路 馃嚬馃嚬 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
7119th06-27 v SJK: +0.007-04 v FF Jaro: -2.007-20 v Turku PS: +3.007-26 v Lahti: +2.008-02 v AC Oulu: -2.008-09 v Mariehamn: +3.008-17 v Gnistan: -2.008-22 v VPS: -2.008-31 v HJK Helsinki: -2.009-08 v FF Jaro: +3.0

Lahti (6th)

Bounced straight back up as Ykkosliiga champions; solid 8th (19pts) mid-2026, incl a 5-0 over Ilves. Ski-city winter climate, turf. Comfortable-survival trajectory.

Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 10th | 2026 so far: 6th (35 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • WA1-0 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • WA2-1 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • LH1-2 KuPSVeikkausliiga
  • DA0-0 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 0,3,3,1,3
Key players T貌fol Montiel 馃嚜馃嚫 41.6, Romain Sans 馃嚝馃嚪 38.6, Osku Maukonen 馃嚝馃嚠 38.0, Jos茅 M眉ller 馃嚛馃嚜 36.3, Yohan Cassubie 馃嚝馃嚪 35.4
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 12 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1
Season pulse season 2026
496th07-04 v Gnistan: +2.007-11 v HJK Helsinki: +3.007-20 v Mariehamn: +3.007-26 v Ilves: -2.008-01 v FF Jaro: +3.008-09 v Inter Turku: +0.008-16 v KuPS: -2.008-21 v SJK: +2.008-31 v VPS: +2.009-08 v Mariehamn: +2.0
league draws 24% · chaos 64lively

FF Jaro (11th) v SJK (10th)

1 24%
X 25%
2 51%
Prediction: SJK to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 60%
vs performances: FF Jaro -0.80 (6g) · SJK -0.49 (4g)
Match preview

The model makes SJK narrow favourites at 51%, with FF Jaro at 24% and the draw at 25%. FF Jaro have lost 5 straight (1 scored, 11 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 60%. Watch Herman Sj枚grell 馃嚫馃嚜 and Fabian 脰stigard Ness 馃嚦馃嚧 for FF Jaro, and Kasper Paananen 馃嚝馃嚠 and Jeremiah Streng 馃嚝馃嚠 for SJK.

FF Jaro: Jakobstad's Swedish-speaking club, promoted 2025 after 9 years away; struggling in 2026 (11th, 11pts, 15:32 goals). · SJK: Seinajoki club with the country's best modern stadium (OmaSp, turf); 2015 champions.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FF Jaro (11th)

Jakobstad's Swedish-speaking club, promoted 2025 after 9 years away; struggling in 2026 (11th, 11pts, 15:32 goals). Small Centralplan. Relegation-playoff favourite.

Seasons 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 11th (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • LA0-2 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • LH0-1 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • LA0-3 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
  • LH1-3 VPSVeikkausliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 4,3,1,2,2
Key players Michael Ogungbaro 馃嚦馃嚞 32.5, Senne Vits 馃嚙馃嚜 25.3, Jesper Svenungsen Skau 馃嚦馃嚧 24.6, Aron Bjonb盲ck 馃嚝馃嚠 21.6
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 22 路 馃嚦馃嚧 4 路 馃嚫馃嚜 4 路 馃嚦馃嚞 3 路 馃嚚馃嚛 1 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
81211th06-27 v Turku PS: -2.007-04 v Ilves: +2.007-19 v Inter Turku: +0.007-24 v SJK: +2.008-01 v Lahti: -3.008-08 v VPS: -3.008-16 v HJK Helsinki: -4.008-22 v AC Oulu: -2.008-31 v Mariehamn: -3.009-08 v Ilves: -3.0

SJK (10th)

Seinajoki club with the country's best modern stadium (OmaSp, turf); 2015 champions. 2026: 10th (14pts), underachieving badly. Relegation-playoff risk; talent above the table position.

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 10th (20 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
  • DA0-0 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • LH1-2 LahtiVeikkausliiga
  • LA0-2 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • DH2-2 GnistanVeikkausliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 4,2,3,0,0
Key players Jeremiah Streng 馃嚝馃嚠 31.4, Oskari V盲ist枚 馃嚝馃嚠 28.0, Roope Paunio 馃嚝馃嚠 27.3
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 21 路 馃嚙馃嚪 3 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚞馃嚥 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
61110th07-04 v Turku PS: +3.007-10 v VPS: -2.007-18 v KuPS: -3.007-24 v FF Jaro: -2.008-03 v HJK Helsinki: +4.008-07 v Gnistan: +0.008-15 v Mariehamn: -3.008-21 v Lahti: -2.008-31 v AC Oulu: +0.009-08 v Turku PS: +0.0
league draws 24% · chaos 64lively

AC Oulu (7th) v Gnistan (4th)

1 31%
X 26%
2 42%
Prediction: Gnistan to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 58%
vs performances: AC Oulu +0.32 (6g) · Gnistan +0.16 (4g)
Match preview

The model makes Gnistan narrow favourites at 42%, with AC Oulu at 31% and the draw at 26%. Gnistan are unbeaten in five (10 scored, 8 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. Watch Rasmus Karjalainen 馃嚝馃嚠 for AC Oulu, and Rachide Gnanou and Saku Heiskanen 馃嚝馃嚠 for Gnistan.

AC Oulu: Northern club having a career year: 4th at the 2026 break (26pts), with Rasmus Karjalainen the league's top scorer (8). · Gnistan: Helsinki district minnows punching hard: 6th (22pts) mid-2026, beat Jaro 5-0.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

AC Oulu (7th)

Northern club having a career year: 4th at the 2026 break (26pts), with Rasmus Karjalainen the league's top scorer (8). Artificial turf, sub-Arctic spring fixtures. Best-ever finish in sight; Europe-spot contender.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 7th (34 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • DH0-0 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • WA1-0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
  • LH2-3 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
  • LH0-1 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 1,5,1,0,1
Key players Juha Pirinen 馃嚝馃嚠 37.7, Tuomas Kaukua 馃嚝馃嚠 36.2, Miguel Santos 馃嚨馃嚬 35.3, Rasmus Karjalainen 馃嚝馃嚠 33.4, Iiro Mendolin 馃嚝馃嚠 29.4
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 29 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚞馃嚥 2 路 馃嚫馃嚤 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
177th06-27 v Lahti: +0.007-11 v Turku PS: -4.007-18 v Gnistan: -3.007-25 v Mariehamn: +0.008-02 v Ilves: +2.008-09 v HJK Helsinki: -2.008-16 v Inter Turku: -2.008-22 v FF Jaro: +2.008-31 v SJK: +0.009-08 v VPS: -2.0

Gnistan (4th)

Helsinki district minnows punching hard: 6th (22pts) mid-2026, beat Jaro 5-0. Mini Mondo turf ground (~1.5k). Second top-flight era going better than anyone expected; upper-mid dark horse.

Seasons 2024: 7th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 4th (37 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
  • DH1-1 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
  • WA3-2 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
  • WH3-2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • DA2-2 SJKVeikkausliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 4,5,5,2,2
Key players Ayo Obileye 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 28.2, Edmund Arko-Mensah 馃嚞馃嚟 27.0, Gabriel Europaeus 馃嚝馃嚠 24.6
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚠 31 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
4124th07-04 v Lahti: -2.007-11 v Mariehamn: +3.007-18 v AC Oulu: +3.007-26 v Inter Turku: +2.008-01 v KuPS: -2.008-07 v SJK: +0.008-17 v Ilves: +2.008-23 v HJK Helsinki: +2.008-31 v Turku PS: +0.009-08 v KuPS: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.