Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚜馃嚜 Meistriliiga

league draws 13% · chaos 69lively

Paide (3rd) v Laagri (7th)

1 69%
X 18%
2 13%
Prediction: Paide to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 59%
Match preview

The model makes Paide clear favourites at 69%, with Laagri at 13% and the draw at 18%. Paide have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 5 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. Watch Victor Hugo dos Santos de S谩 馃嚙馃嚪 and R. Saarma 馃嚜馃嚜 for Paide.

Paide: Small-town central-Estonia club (Paide Linnameeskond), a modern riser into Europe; artificial turf. · Laagri: Harju JK Laagri, a small club from the Tallinn commuter belt punching well above its weight in 2026: 5th on 19 pts from 14, the best of the sides outside Estonia's big three.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Paide (3rd)

Small-town central-Estonia club (Paide Linnameeskond), a modern riser into Europe; artificial turf. UECL entrant; overachiever.

Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 3rd (45 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 TammekaMeistriliiga
  • LH0-2 FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
  • WA2-1 Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
  • WH4-1 N玫mme UnitedMeistriliiga
  • DA1-1 Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 2,5,3,2,2
Key players Victor Hugo dos Santos de S谩 馃嚙馃嚪, R. Saarma 馃嚜馃嚜, M. Miller 馃嚜馃嚜
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚜 22 路 馃嚞馃嚥 5 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
284th06-21 v Flora Tallinn: +2.006-28 v Kalju Nomme: +0.007-04 v Vaprus: +3.007-19 v Laagri: -4.008-02 v Kuressaare: +2.008-16 v Trans Narva: +0.008-23 v N玫mme United: +4.008-30 v Flora Tallinn: +2.009-06 v FC Levadia Tallinn: -3.009-09 v Tammeka: +3.0

Laagri (7th)

Harju JK Laagri, a small club from the Tallinn commuter belt punching well above its weight in 2026: 5th on 19 pts from 14, the best of the sides outside Estonia's big three. Artificial pitch, tiny crowds, spring-autumn calendar.

Seasons 2023: 10th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 7th (31 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA2-3 VaprusMeistriliiga
  • LH0-2 TammekaMeistriliiga
  • WA2-1 N玫mme UnitedMeistriliiga
  • WH1-0 Kalju NommeMeistriliiga
  • LH1-2 FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,1,3,2,5
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚜 27 路 馃嚭馃嚘 2 路 馃嚞馃嚰 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚤馃嚮 1
Season pulse season 2026
286th07-05 v Tammeka: -2.007-10 v Trans Narva: +4.007-19 v Paide: +4.008-02 v Flora Tallinn: -2.008-07 v Kuressaare: -2.008-16 v FC Levadia Tallinn: -2.008-22 v Kalju Nomme: +2.008-29 v N玫mme United: +2.009-06 v Tammeka: -3.009-09 v Vaprus: -2.0
league draws 13% · chaos 69lively

Kuressaare (8th) v Tammeka (5th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 33%
X 22%
2 46%
Prediction: Tammeka to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%
Match preview

The model makes Tammeka narrow favourites at 46%, with Kuressaare at 33% and the draw at 22%. Tammeka have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 6 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band.

Kuressaare: Saaremaa island club: visitors take a ferry, the league's sharpest travel quirk. · Tammeka: Tartu club from Estonia's university city, youth-driven and much improved on a dismal 2025: 7th in 2026 on 16 pts from 13 with a far tighter defence.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Kuressaare (8th)

Saaremaa island club: visitors take a ferry, the league's sharpest travel quirk. Perennial strugglers, 9th in 2026 on 13 pts from 14 after surviving a relegation playoff in 2025. Artificial pitch, crowds often under 200.

Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 8th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-4 FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
  • WH3-1 Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
  • DH2-2 VaprusMeistriliiga
  • LA0-1 TammekaMeistriliiga
  • WA3-2 Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 5,1,4,4,4
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚜 32
Season pulse season 2026
698th07-02 v Flora Tallinn: -4.007-11 v N玫mme United: -2.007-19 v Kalju Nomme: +0.008-02 v Paide: -2.008-07 v Laagri: +2.008-16 v Flora Tallinn: +2.008-22 v Tammeka: -2.008-29 v Vaprus: +0.009-05 v Trans Narva: +3.009-09 v FC Levadia Tallinn: -5.0

Tammeka (5th)

Tartu club from Estonia's university city, youth-driven and much improved on a dismal 2025: 7th in 2026 on 16 pts from 13 with a far tighter defence. Artificial pitch, small crowds, spring-autumn calendar.

Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 5th (41 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 PaideMeistriliiga
  • WA2-0 LaagriMeistriliiga
  • LA2-3 Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
  • WA2-0 Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
  • WH3-1 Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 4,2,5,2,2
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚜 28 路 馃嚦馃嚞 3 路 馃嚞馃嚜 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1
Season pulse season 2026
5105th07-05 v Laagri: +2.007-11 v Vaprus: -5.008-02 v Kalju Nomme: -5.008-14 v N玫mme United: +2.008-22 v Kuressaare: +2.008-26 v Flora Tallinn: +3.008-30 v Trans Narva: +3.009-02 v Flora Tallinn: -2.009-06 v Laagri: +3.009-09 v Paide: -3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.