Daily Football Model

2026-10-03 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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CONCACAF Nations League

league draws 15% · chaos 57lively

v

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 36%
X 28%
2 36%
Prediction: Barbados to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 73%
Match preview

The model makes Barbados the marginal call at 36%, with Bermuda at 36% and the draw at 28%. Bermuda have lost 4 of their last five (2 scored, 18 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 72%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 73%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Barbados

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1343 (56 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 St. LuciaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DH1-1 ArubaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA3-5 GuyanaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH1-4 GuyanaCONCACAF Nations League
  • WH6-2 BahamasCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 8,0,0,2,3
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
1138th09-07 v Bahamas: +2.009-10 v US Virgin Islands: +4.010-10 v US Virgin Islands: +6.010-16 v Bahamas: +5.011-15 v Guyana: -4.011-19 v Guyana: -3.0

Bermuda

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1396 (55 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Trinidad and TobagoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH0-7 CuraçaoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-4 JamaicaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH0-3 Trinidad and TobagoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA2-3 CuraçaoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 4,7,4,2,3
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
6339th09-07 v Dominican Republic: -2.009-10 v Antigua and Barbuda: +2.010-12 v Dominica: +6.010-16 v Dominica: +2.011-16 v Antigua and Barbuda: +2.011-19 v Dominican Republic: -6.0
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively

v

1 44%
X 27%
2 29%
Prediction: Bonaire to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 68%
Match preview

The model makes Bonaire narrow favourites at 44%, with Grenada at 29% and the draw at 27%. Bonaire have lost 3 straight (2 scored, 7 conceded). Grenada have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 8 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 66%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 68%.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Bonaire

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1415 (22 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 St. Vincent / GrenadinesCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-1 El SalvadorCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA1-0 MontserratCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-1 MontserratCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA1-2 El SalvadorCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 1,1,1,4,2
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
113232nd09-06 v St. Vincent / Grenadines: +0.009-09 v El Salvador: -2.010-10 v Montserrat: -2.010-13 v Montserrat: +2.011-15 v El Salvador: -2.011-17 v St. Vincent / Grenadines: -3.0

Grenada

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1422 (60 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-2 St. Kitts and NevisWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH6-0 BahamasWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH0-3 Saint MartinCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA4-0 St. LuciaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA0-1 CuraçaoCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 5,2,5,1,5
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
82219th09-07 v Saint Martin: +3.009-10 v St. Lucia: -2.010-11 v Curaçao: +0.010-14 v Curaçao: -2.011-15 v St. Lucia: +5.011-18 v Saint Martin: -4.0
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively

v

1 20%
X 24%
2 56%
Prediction: Honduras to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
Club briefings

Martinique

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1445 (30 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 GuadeloupeCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA1-0 GuadeloupeCONCACAF Nations League
  • DH2-2 GuyanaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA1-3 GuatemalaCONCACAF Nations League
  • DA0-0 El SalvadorCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 4,4,1,0,2
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
173829th09-06 v Guatemala: -3.009-09 v Guyana: +0.010-11 v Guadeloupe: +2.010-16 v Guadeloupe: +0.0

Honduras

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1605 (123 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Costa RicaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-2 NicaraguaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH3-0 HaitiWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DH0-0 Costa RicaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH2-0 NicaraguaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,2,0,4,2
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
21411th09-07 v Trinidad and Tobago: +5.009-11 v Jamaica: -2.010-10 v French Guyana: +2.010-15 v Jamaica: +0.011-16 v Mexico: +3.011-20 v Mexico: -5.0
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively

v

1 17%
X 23%
2 60%
Prediction: Jamaica to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 34%
Match preview

The model makes Jamaica clear favourites at 60%, with El Salvador at 17% and the draw at 23%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 34%).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

El Salvador

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1452 (120 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 PanamaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-4 SurinameWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH0-1 GuatemalaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH0-1 PanamaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH1-2 SurinameWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 1,0,3,3,4
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
184th09-05 v Montserrat: +4.009-09 v Bonaire: +2.010-11 v St. Vincent / Grenadines: +2.010-14 v St. Vincent / Grenadines: -2.011-15 v Bonaire: +2.011-18 v Montserrat: +2.0

Jamaica

strong awaydraw merchants
Seasons CONCNL Elo 1635 (135 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Congo DRWorld Cup Qual. (Play-offs)
  • WA1-0 New CaledoniaWorld Cup Qual. (Play-offs)
  • DH0-0 CuraçaoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DA1-1 Trinidad and TobagoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH4-0 BermudaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 1,0,2,3,2
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
52418th09-07 v Cuba: +0.009-11 v Honduras: +2.010-11 v Nicaragua: +3.010-15 v Honduras: +0.011-15 v USA: -2.011-19 v USA: -3.0
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively
next day · Sunday

v

1 49%
X 26%
2 24%
Prediction: Sint Maarten to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 86%
Match preview

The model makes Sint Maarten narrow favourites at 49%, with St. Vincent / Grenadines at 24% and the draw at 26%. St. Vincent / Grenadines have won 3 of their last five (16 scored, 3 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 83%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 86%.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sint Maarten

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1458 (22 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 ArubaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-8 HaitiCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA1-2 Puerto RicoCONCACAF Nations League
  • WH3-2 Puerto RicoCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA0-6 HaitiCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 6,5,3,8,1
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
52517th09-06 v Aruba: +3.009-09 v Haiti: -6.010-11 v Puerto Rico: +2.010-14 v Puerto Rico: -2.011-15 v Haiti: -6.011-18 v Aruba: +2.0

St. Vincent / Grenadines

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1437 (60 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Puerto RicoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH6-0 AnguillaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH3-1 BonaireCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA2-1 MontserratCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA2-1 El SalvadorCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,6,3,7,1
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
1216th09-06 v Bonaire: +0.009-08 v Montserrat: +3.010-11 v El Salvador: -2.010-14 v El Salvador: +2.011-14 v Montserrat: +2.011-17 v Bonaire: +3.0