Daily Football Model

2026-10-02 · 7 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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CONCACAF Nations League

league draws 15% · chaos 57lively
early hours · today

v

1 19%
X 24%
2 57%
Prediction: Saint Martin to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 65%
Match preview

The model makes Saint Martin clear favourites at 57%, with US Virgin Islands at 19% and the draw at 24%. US Virgin Islands have lost 4 of their last five (3 scored, 16 conceded). Saint Martin have lost 3 straight (8 scored, 11 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 65%.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

US Virgin Islands

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1277 (30 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 BahamasCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-5 BarbadosCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA0-3 BarbadosCONCACAF Nations League
  • DH3-3 BahamasCONCACAF Nations League
  • DA0-0 British Virgin IslandsWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 3,5,4,2,5

Saint Martin

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1442 (26 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-0 GrenadaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-5 CuraçaoCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA4-0 St. LuciaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH1-2 St. LuciaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA0-4 CuraçaoCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,5,5,3,3
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively
early hours · today

v

1 28%
X 27%
2 45%
Prediction: Guyana to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 70%
Match preview

The model makes Guyana narrow favourites at 45%, with Dominica at 28% and the draw at 27%. Guyana have won 3 of their last five (13 scored, 10 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 70%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 70%.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Dominica

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1381 (44 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-5 Dominican RepublicWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH3-0 British Virgin IslandsWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DA0-0 Antigua and BarbudaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH1-6 Dominican RepublicCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA2-3 BermudaCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 0,0,3,5,1

Guyana

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1483 (48 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 MontserratWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-1 NicaraguaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH5-3 BarbadosCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA4-1 BarbadosCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA1-5 SurinameCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 6,5,8,1,3
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively
early hours · today

v

1 58%
X 24%
2 17%
Prediction: Curaçao to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%
Match preview

The model makes Curaçao clear favourites at 58%, with Trinidad and Tobago at 17% and the draw at 24%. Trinidad and Tobago have lost 4 straight (2 scored, 14 conceded).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Curaçao

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1564 (73 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 Ivory CoastWorld Cup
  • DA0-0 EcuadorWorld Cup
  • LA1-7 GermanyWorld Cup
  • DA0-0 JamaicaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WA7-0 BermudaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 5,4,8,0,2

Trinidad and Tobago

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1493 (106 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 BermudaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DH1-1 JamaicaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DA1-1 CuraçaoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WA3-0 BermudaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-2 JamaicaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 4,3,5,3,1
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively
early hours · today

v

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 32%
X 27%
2 40%
Prediction: Antigua and Barbuda to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 63%
Match preview

The model makes Antigua and Barbuda the marginal call at 40%, with Anguilla at 32% and the draw at 27%. Anguilla have lost 4 of their last five (2 scored, 13 conceded). Antigua and Barbuda have lost 4 of their last five (1 scored, 10 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 63%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Anguilla

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1251 (36 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 El SalvadorWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-6 St. Vincent / GrenadinesWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA1-2 Turks and Caicos IslandsCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-1 BelizeCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA0-1 BelizeCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,6,3,3,1

Antigua and Barbuda

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1327 (43 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 HondurasWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH0-1 CubaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DH0-0 DominicaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA1-2 BermudaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA0-5 Dominican RepublicCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 5,3,0,1,2
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively

v

1 41%
X 27%
2 32%
Prediction: St. Lucia to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 64%
Match preview

The model makes St. Lucia the marginal call at 41%, with Guadeloupe at 32% and the draw at 27%. St. Lucia have lost 4 of their last five (3 scored, 17 conceded). Guadeloupe have lost 3 straight (12 scored, 10 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 63%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 64%.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

St. Lucia

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1457 (34 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 BarbadosWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-4 CuraçaoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA1-4 CuraçaoCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-4 GrenadaCONCACAF Nations League
  • LH0-4 Saint MartinCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,4,5,4,3
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
71716th09-06 v Curaçao: +2.009-10 v Grenada: +2.010-12 v Saint Martin: +2.010-14 v Saint Martin: -5.011-15 v Grenada: -5.011-18 v Curaçao: -4.0

Guadeloupe

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1485 (31 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 GuatemalaGold Cup
  • LA1-2 JamaicaGold Cup
  • LA2-5 PanamaGold Cup
  • WH1-0 Cayman IslandsCONCACAF Nations League
  • WA6-0 Cayman IslandsCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 6,1,7,3,5
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
104010th09-06 v Costa Rica: -4.009-09 v Suriname: +2.010-11 v Martinique: -2.010-16 v Martinique: +0.011-15 v Cayman Islands: +6.011-19 v Cayman Islands: +2.0
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively
next day · Saturday

v

1 44%
X 27%
2 29%
Prediction: St. Kitts and Nevis to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 72%
Match preview

The model makes St. Kitts and Nevis narrow favourites at 44%, with Cuba at 29% and the draw at 27%. Cuba have lost 4 straight (2 scored, 12 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 68%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 72%.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

St. Kitts and Nevis

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1410 (58 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 GrenadaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA2-6 Trinidad and TobagoWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LA0-4 CubaCONCACAF Nations League
  • WH2-1 CubaCONCACAF Nations League
  • DH1-1 Cayman IslandsCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 5,8,5,5,3
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
187th09-07 v Cayman Islands: +4.009-10 v British Virgin Islands: +3.010-09 v British Virgin Islands: +3.010-15 v Cayman Islands: +0.011-14 v Cuba: +2.011-18 v Cuba: -5.0

Cuba

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1419 (62 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 BermudaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WA1-0 Antigua and BarbudaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH4-0 St. Kitts and NevisCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA1-2 St. Kitts and NevisCONCACAF Nations League
  • LA1-3 Trinidad and TobagoCONCACAF Nations League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 1,3,7,1,2
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
193126th09-07 v Jamaica: +0.009-10 v Nicaragua: +0.010-10 v Trinidad and Tobago: +0.010-15 v Trinidad and Tobago: -3.011-14 v St. Kitts and Nevis: -2.011-18 v St. Kitts and Nevis: +5.0
league draws 15% · chaos 57lively
next day · Saturday

v

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 37%
X 28%
2 35%
Prediction: Suriname to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 54%
Match preview

The model makes Suriname the marginal call at 37%, with Guatemala at 35% and the draw at 28%. Guatemala have lost 4 straight (4 scored, 15 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Suriname

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1525 (48 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 BoliviaWorld Cup Qual. (Play-offs)
  • LA1-3 GuatemalaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WH4-0 El SalvadorWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DA1-1 PanamaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DH1-1 GuatemalaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 2,2,4,4,3
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
32222nd09-05 v Guyana: +3.009-09 v Guadeloupe: -2.010-11 v Costa Rica: +0.010-16 v Guyana: +5.011-15 v Canada: -2.011-20 v Canada: -4.0

Guatemala

Seasons CONCNL Elo 1571 (104 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 SurinameWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • LH2-3 PanamaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • WA1-0 El SalvadorWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DA1-1 SurinameWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
  • DA1-1 PanamaWorld Cup Qual. (CONCACAF)
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 4,1,7,4,3
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
42020th09-06 v Martinique: +3.009-10 v Costa Rica: +0.010-12 v Guyana: +3.010-16 v Costa Rica: -4.0