Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚚馃嚧 Primera A

league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly

Chico (18th) v Alianza Valledupar (19th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 43%
X 31%
2 26%
Prediction: Chico to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 35%
vs performances: Chico -0.26 (22g) · Alianza Valledupar -0.32 (20g)
xG overlay · Chico better on chances than on results by 0.09 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.4 pts
Match preview

The model makes Chico narrow favourites at 43%, with Alianza Valledupar at 26% and the draw at 31%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 35%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Jairo Molina 馃嚚馃嚧 and Juan Diaz for Chico, and Pedro Franco 馃嚚馃嚧 and Jhildrey Lasso 馃嚚馃嚧 for Alianza Valledupar.

Chico: Tunja club (Boyac谩 Chic贸) at ~2,800m, a genuine altitude fortress; modest budget, the thin air its main weapon. · Alianza Valledupar: Valledupar club (northern, hot lowland), recently promoted; modest budget.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Chico (18th)

Tunja club (Boyac谩 Chic贸) at ~2,800m, a genuine altitude fortress; modest budget, the thin air its main weapon.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 28.8 in league · 19th of 20
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 19th | 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 18th (25 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • WH2-0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • DA2-2 脕guilas DoradasPrimera A
  • DH0-0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • LA0-1 JaguaresPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,0,4,2,3
Key players David Agudelo 馃嚚馃嚧 40.4, Jacobo Pimentel 馃嚚馃嚧 38.5, Jhonier Alom铆a 馃嚚馃嚧 38.4, Juan Diaz 36.0, Delio Ram铆rez 馃嚚馃嚧 33.8
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 55 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚪 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
172018th04-22 v Independiente Medellin: -3.404-27 v Internacional de Bogota: -5.505-02 v Llaneros: +5.108-02 v America de Cali: -6.008-08 v Santa Fe: -3.108-21 v Jaguares: -1.708-26 v Fortaleza FC: +0.508-30 v 脕guilas Doradas: -0.109-05 v Once Caldas: +3.009-12 v Independiente Medellin: +2.0

Alianza Valledupar (19th)

Valledupar club (northern, hot lowland), recently promoted; modest budget.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 26.7 in league · 20th of 20
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 18th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 19th (22 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 JuniorPrimera A
  • LA0-3 America de CaliPrimera A
  • LH1-5 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • LA0-1 CucutaPrimera A
  • DH0-0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 0,1,6,3,1
Key players Pedro Franco 馃嚚馃嚧 39.6, Juan Viveros 馃嚚馃嚧 39.0, Wiston Fern谩ndez 馃嚭馃嚲 38.7, Yeiner Londo帽o 36.4, Misael Mart铆nez 馃嚚馃嚧 36.4
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
132019th04-26 v Llaneros: -0.205-03 v Millonarios: -0.607-26 v Fortaleza FC: +0.008-01 v Deportes Tolima: -1.908-09 v Bucaramanga: -2.408-22 v Deportivo Pereira: +0.008-26 v Cucuta: -1.808-30 v Atletico Nacional: -5.609-03 v America de Cali: -4.009-13 v Junior: +2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly
next day · Thursday

Once Caldas (6th) v Deportes Tolima (3rd)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 36%
X 32%
2 32%
Prediction: Once Caldas to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 41%
vs performances: Once Caldas +0.11 (23g) · Deportes Tolima +0.08 (24g)
xG overlay · Deportes Tolima better on chances than on results by 0.30 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Once Caldas the marginal call at 36%, with Deportes Tolima at 32% and the draw at 32%. Deportes Tolima have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 4 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 41%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Dayro Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 and Jefry Zapata 馃嚚馃嚧 for Once Caldas, and Adri谩n Parra 馃嚚馃嚧 and Luis Sandoval 馃嚚馃嚧 for Deportes Tolima.

Once Caldas: Manizales club, 2004 Libertadores champions, at ~2,150m; Palogrande, altitude edge. · Deportes Tolima: Ibagu茅 club, recent champions; Murillo Toro (~1,250m).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Once Caldas (6th)

Manizales club, 2004 Libertadores champions, at ~2,150m; Palogrande, altitude edge.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 53.2 in league · 9th of 20
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 6th (43 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • LA0-2 ChicoPrimera A
  • WA2-1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • DA1-1 JuniorPrimera A
  • DA1-1 JaguaresPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 2,2,3,2,3
Key players Juan David Cuesta 馃嚚馃嚧 52.7, Andr茅s Roa 馃嚚馃嚧 49.4, Jefry Zapata 馃嚚馃嚧 46.9, Felipe Parra 45.7, Dayro Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 44.9
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚙馃嚧 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
2126th05-10 v Junior: -2.005-14 v Junior: +0.307-27 v Cucuta: +5.008-03 v Santa Fe: +0.508-06 v America de Cali: -2.408-09 v Jaguares: +0.608-24 v Junior: -0.309-02 v Fortaleza FC: +2.009-05 v Chico: -3.009-13 v Deportivo Cali: -2.0

Deportes Tolima (3rd)

Ibagu茅 club, recent champions; Murillo Toro (~1,250m). Well-run.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 55.8 in league · 8th of 20
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 3rd (53 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Santa FePrimera A
  • WA2-1 LlanerosPrimera A
  • WH2-1 CucutaPrimera A
  • LA1-3 Independiente del ValleLibertadores
  • DH0-0 BucaramangaPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,0,3,3,1
Key players Sebasti谩n Guzm谩n 馃嚚馃嚧 56.1, Anderson Angulo 馃嚚馃嚧 51.3, Luis Sandoval 馃嚚馃嚧 48.3, Luis S谩nchez 46.1, Jan 脕ngulo 42.8
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 36 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚫馃嚮 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
193rd05-16 v Atletico Nacional: -2.005-23 v Atletico Nacional: -3.307-26 v Junior: +2.008-01 v Alianza Valledupar: +1.908-04 v Independiente Medellin: -1.508-08 v Internacional de Bogota: +2.208-22 v Bucaramanga: +0.009-01 v Cucuta: +2.209-07 v Llaneros: +2.709-12 v Santa Fe: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.