Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚚馃嚧 Primera A

league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly
early hours · today

Jaguares (17th) v Fortaleza FC (15th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 39%
X 31%
2 29%
Prediction: Jaguares to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 45%
vs performances: Jaguares -0.20 (21g) · Fortaleza FC -0.06 (21g)
xG overlay · Jaguares better on chances than on results by 0.26 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes Jaguares the marginal call at 39%, with Fortaleza FC at 29% and the draw at 31%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Andr茅s Renter铆a 馃嚚馃嚧 and Carlos Henao 馃嚚馃嚧 for Jaguares, and Andr茅s Arroyo 馃嚚馃嚧 and Leonardo Pico 馃嚚馃嚧 for Fortaleza FC.

Jaguares: Monter铆a club (C贸rdoba), a hot lowland side; modest budget. · Fortaleza FC: Bogot谩 club (Fortaleza CEIF) at ~2,640m, a modern riser; small crowds, altitude edge.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Jaguares (17th)

Monter铆a club (C贸rdoba), a hot lowland side; modest budget.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 44.2 in league · 14th of 19
Seasons 2023: 20th | 2024: 16th | 2026 so far: 17th (24 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA3-3 JuniorPrimera A
  • DH2-2 America de CaliPrimera A
  • WH1-0 ChicoPrimera A
  • DH1-1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • LA0-1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,2,1,4,6
Key players Yairo Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 46.2, Rafael Bustamante 馃嚚馃嚧 46.2, Franklin Mosquera 馃嚚馃嚧 45.6, Andr茅s Renter铆a 馃嚚馃嚧 42.2, Yan Mosquera 42.1
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 27 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1

Fortaleza FC (15th)

Bogot谩 club (Fortaleza CEIF) at ~2,640m, a modern riser; small crowds, altitude edge.

Style Pass-dominant from 2026
Squad quality 48.8 in league · 10th of 19
Seasons 2024: 13th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 15th (29 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Santa FePrimera A
  • LH1-2 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • DA0-0 ChicoPrimera A
  • LH1-2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • WH2-0 CucutaPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,3,0,3,4
Key players Yesid D铆az 馃嚚馃嚧 54.7, Andres Copete 48.5, Jhon Solis 馃嚚馃嚧 47.6, Andr茅s Arroyo 馃嚚馃嚧 45.4, Jonathan Marulanda 馃嚚馃嚧 41.7
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 38 路 馃嚜馃嚚 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly

Santa Fe (5th) v Deportes Tolima (3rd)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 41%
X 31%
2 28%
Prediction: Santa Fe to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 39%
vs performances: Santa Fe +0.10 (23g) · Deportes Tolima +0.08 (24g)
xG overlay · Deportes Tolima better on chances than on results by 0.34 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Santa Fe the marginal call at 41%, with Deportes Tolima at 28% and the draw at 31%. Santa Fe are unbeaten in five (8 scored, 5 conceded). Deportes Tolima have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 6 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 39%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Hugo Rodallega 馃嚚馃嚧 and Omar Fern谩ndez 馃嚚馃嚧 for Santa Fe, and Adri谩n Parra 馃嚚馃嚧 and Luis Sandoval 馃嚚馃嚧 for Deportes Tolima.

Santa Fe: Bogot谩 giant at ~2,640m, a big fanbase; El Camp铆n, the Bogot谩 derby. · Deportes Tolima: Ibagu茅 club, recent champions; Murillo Toro (~1,250m).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Santa Fe (5th)

draw merchants

Bogot谩 giant at ~2,640m, a big fanbase; El Camp铆n, the Bogot谩 derby. Recent champions.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 33.2 in league · 17th of 19
Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 5th (45 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 Vasco DA GamaSudamericana
  • DH2-2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • WH3-2 MillonariosPrimera A
  • DA1-1 JuniorPrimera A
  • DA1-1 River PlateSudamericana
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,0,2,5,4
Key players Andr茅s Mosquera 馃嚚馃嚧 48.2, Johan Torres 馃嚚馃嚧 45.9, Ivan Scarpeta 馃嚚馃嚧 39.2, Emerson Rodr铆guez 38.6, Victor Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 36.9
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 46 路 馃嚘馃嚪 5 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2
Season pulse season 2026
4165th05-10 v America de Cali: +0.205-13 v America de Cali: +5.905-17 v Junior: +0.707-26 v 脕guilas Doradas: -2.008-03 v Once Caldas: -0.508-08 v Chico: +3.108-22 v America de Cali: +0.008-29 v Junior: -0.309-03 v Millonarios: +2.009-05 v Fortaleza FC: +0.0

Deportes Tolima (3rd)

Ibagu茅 club, recent champions; Murillo Toro (~1,250m). Well-run.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 57.8 in league · 5th of 19
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 3rd (53 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 LlanerosPrimera A
  • WH2-1 CucutaPrimera A
  • LA1-3 Independiente del ValleLibertadores
  • DH0-0 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • LH0-1 Independiente del ValleLibertadores
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 5,3,0,3,3
Key players Sebasti谩n Guzm谩n 馃嚚馃嚧 58.4, Luis S谩nchez 51.9, Anderson Angulo 馃嚚馃嚧 50.8, Luis Sandoval 馃嚚馃嚧 50.3, Jorge Hurtado 42.5
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 36 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚫馃嚮 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
183rd05-13 v Deportivo Pasto: +3.305-16 v Atletico Nacional: -2.005-23 v Atletico Nacional: -3.307-26 v Junior: +2.008-01 v Alianza Valledupar: +1.908-04 v Independiente Medellin: -1.508-08 v Internacional de Bogota: +2.208-22 v Bucaramanga: +0.009-01 v Cucuta: +2.209-07 v Llaneros: +2.7
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly
next day · Sunday

Internacional de Bogota (12th) v Llaneros (14th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 43%
X 31%
2 26%
Prediction: Internacional de Bogota to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 38%
vs performances: Internacional de Bogota -0.11 (23g) · Llaneros -0.08 (20g)
xG overlay · Internacional de Bogota better on chances than on results by 0.44 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Internacional de Bogota narrow favourites at 43%, with Llaneros at 26% and the draw at 31%. Internacional de Bogota are unbeaten in five (6 scored, 6 conceded). Llaneros have lost 3 straight (4 scored, 7 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 38%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Fabricio Sanguinetti 馃嚭馃嚲 and Kevin Parra 馃嚚馃嚧 for Internacional de Bogota, and Jhon V谩squez 馃嚚馃嚧 and Neider Ospina 馃嚚馃嚧 for Llaneros.

Internacional de Bogota: Bogot谩 club at ~2,640m, a smaller-budget side using its altitude edge; small crowds. · Llaneros: Villavicencio club (eastern plains, hot lowland), newly promoted; modest budget.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Internacional de Bogota (12th)

Bogot谩 club at ~2,640m, a smaller-budget side using its altitude edge; small crowds.

Style Territorial control from 2026
Squad quality 38.1 in league · 15th of 19
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 12th | 2025: 20th | 2026 so far: 12th (36 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 脕guilas DoradasPrimera A
  • DA0-0 MillonariosPrimera A
  • DH1-1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • DA2-2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • DA1-1 CucutaPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 2,4,2,0,4
Key players Larry V谩squez 馃嚚馃嚧 50.3, Mateo Rodas 45.4, Cristi谩n D谩jome 馃嚚馃嚧 44.5, Fabricio Sanguinetti 馃嚭馃嚲 43.4, Ruben Manjarres 36.0
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 42 路 馃嚮馃嚜 4 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
11912th05-09 v Atletico Nacional: -2.105-12 v Atletico Nacional: -6.007-26 v America de Cali: -3.008-05 v Jaguares: +3.008-08 v Deportes Tolima: -2.208-19 v Cucuta: +0.308-23 v Deportivo Cali: -0.308-28 v Deportivo Pasto: -0.108-30 v Millonarios: -0.009-06 v 脕guilas Doradas: -0.9

Llaneros (14th)

Villavicencio club (eastern plains, hot lowland), newly promoted; modest budget.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 44.7 in league · 13th of 19
Seasons 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 14th (33 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • LA1-2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • LH0-2 MillonariosPrimera A
  • WA1-0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • DA1-1 脕guilas DoradasPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,1,2,3,3
Key players Roameth Roma帽a 馃嚚馃嚧 47.5, Neider Ospina 馃嚚馃嚧 47.1, Francisco Meza 馃嚚馃嚧 46.5, Jimmy Medranda 馃嚚馃嚧 41.7, Juan Ramirez 41.3
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 62 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1
Season pulse season 2026
11414th04-26 v Alianza Valledupar: +0.205-02 v Chico: -5.107-24 v Deportivo Pereira: +2.007-31 v Bucaramanga: +0.008-04 v Fortaleza FC: +3.108-19 v 脕guilas Doradas: -1.008-23 v Deportivo Pasto: +2.008-27 v Millonarios: -3.508-30 v Independiente Medellin: -2.309-07 v Deportes Tolima: -2.7
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly
next day · Sunday

Chico (18th) v Independiente Medellin (7th)

1 29%
X 31%
2 40%
Prediction: Independiente Medellin to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 43%
vs performances: Chico -0.26 (22g) · Independiente Medellin +0.30 (18g)
xG overlay · Chico better on chances than on results by 0.82 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Independiente Medellin the marginal call at 40%, with Chico at 29% and the draw at 31%. Independiente Medellin have won 4 of their last five (9 scored, 4 conceded). Watch Jairo Molina 馃嚚馃嚧 and Juan Diaz for Chico, and John Edwin Monta帽o 馃嚚馃嚧 and Francisco Chaverra 馃嚚馃嚧 for Independiente Medellin.

Chico: Tunja club (Boyac谩 Chic贸) at ~2,800m, a genuine altitude fortress; modest budget, the thin air its main weapon. · Independiente Medellin: Medell铆n giant (DIM), a big fanbase and the Medell铆n derby; Atanasio Girardot (~1,500m).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Chico (18th)

Tunja club (Boyac谩 Chic贸) at ~2,800m, a genuine altitude fortress; modest budget, the thin air its main weapon.

Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 19th | 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 18th (22 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • DA2-2 脕guilas DoradasPrimera A
  • DH0-0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • LA0-1 JaguaresPrimera A
  • LA0-2 Santa FePrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,1,0,4,2
Key players Juan Diaz 37.4, Delio Ram铆rez 馃嚚馃嚧 34.3, Arlen Banguero 馃嚚馃嚧 33.0, Nicol谩s Valencia 馃嚚馃嚧 32.7, Jairo Molina 馃嚚馃嚧 32.6
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 55 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚪 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
172018th04-17 v Deportivo Cali: +1.904-22 v Independiente Medellin: -3.404-27 v Internacional de Bogota: -5.505-02 v Llaneros: +5.108-02 v America de Cali: -6.008-08 v Santa Fe: -3.108-21 v Jaguares: -1.708-26 v Fortaleza FC: +0.508-30 v 脕guilas Doradas: -0.109-05 v Once Caldas: +3.0

Independiente Medellin (7th)

Medell铆n giant (DIM), a big fanbase and the Medell铆n derby; Atanasio Girardot (~1,500m).

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 61.7 in league · 4th of 19
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 7th (41 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • WH2-1 LlanerosPrimera A
  • LH0-1 CucutaPrimera A
  • WA3-2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • WH1-0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 1,5,1,3,3
Key players Frank Fabra 馃嚚馃嚧 54.3, John Edwin Monta帽o 馃嚚馃嚧 53.0, Juan Fernando Quintero 51.8, Eder Chaux 馃嚚馃嚧 47.9, Jhan Mena 馃嚚馃嚧 45.0
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 36 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
7197th04-19 v Alianza Valledupar: +1.604-22 v Chico: +3.404-26 v Fortaleza FC: +2.405-03 v 脕guilas Doradas: -1.007-25 v Deportivo Pasto: +2.008-01 v Deportivo Cali: +2.208-04 v Deportes Tolima: +1.508-23 v Cucuta: -2.008-30 v Llaneros: +2.309-04 v Deportivo Pereira: +4.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.