Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚚馃嚧 Primera A

league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly

America de Cali (2nd) v Deportivo Pasto (11th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: AMERICA DE CALI
1 63%
X 28%
2 10%
Prediction: America de Cali to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
vs performances: America de Cali +0.20 (24g) · Deportivo Pasto -0.23 (22g)
xG overlay · Deportivo Pasto better on chances than on results by 0.93 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes America de Cali clear favourites at 63%, with Deportivo Pasto at 10% and the draw at 28%. America de Cali are unbeaten in five (10 scored, 4 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with America de Cali the stronger. Watch Yeison Guzm谩n 馃嚚馃嚧 and Rafael Carrascal 馃嚚馃嚧 for America de Cali, and Andrey Estupi帽谩n 馃嚚馃嚧 and Santiago C贸rdoba 馃嚚馃嚧 for Deportivo Pasto.

America de Cali: Cali giant, a big fanbase and the fierce Cali derby; Pascual Guerrero (~1,000m). · Deportivo Pasto: Pasto club at ~2,900m, an extreme-altitude fortress; La Libertad, the thin air its weapon.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

America de Cali (2nd)

strong at home

Cali giant, a big fanbase and the fierce Cali derby; Pascual Guerrero (~1,000m). Historic champions.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 80.8 in league · 1st of 19
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 2nd (54 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • DA2-2 JaguaresPrimera A
  • WH4-2 JuniorPrimera A
  • DA0-0 Santa FePrimera A
  • WH1-0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 1,0,6,4,3
Key players Rafael Carrascal 馃嚚馃嚧 63.9, Daniel Rosero Valencia 58.8, Yeison Guzm谩n 馃嚚馃嚧 57.8, Luis Qui帽ones 馃嚚馃嚧 55.8, Jean 馃嚙馃嚪 53.6
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 42 路 馃嚮馃嚜 4 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚨馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
1102nd05-10 v Santa Fe: -0.205-13 v Santa Fe: -5.907-26 v Internacional de Bogota: +3.008-02 v Chico: +6.008-06 v Once Caldas: +2.408-10 v Atletico Nacional: +2.008-22 v Santa Fe: +0.008-26 v Junior: +3.908-29 v Jaguares: +0.709-03 v Alianza Valledupar: +4.0

Deportivo Pasto (11th)

Pasto club at ~2,900m, an extreme-altitude fortress; La Libertad, the thin air its weapon.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 46.6 in league · 11th of 19
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 11th (36 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 CucutaPrimera A
  • LH1-2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • DA1-1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
  • LH0-1 LlanerosPrimera A
  • LH0-2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,1,2,3,4
Key players Santiago Jim茅nez 馃嚚馃嚧 46.9, Mat铆as Pisano 馃嚘馃嚪 44.8, Diego Chavez 44.1, Juli谩n Qui帽ones 馃嚚馃嚧 41.8, Nicolas Gil 馃嚚馃嚧 41.3
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 44 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚫馃嚮 1 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
1119th05-09 v Deportes Tolima: -2.205-13 v Deportes Tolima: -3.307-25 v Independiente Medellin: -2.008-01 v 脕guilas Doradas: -2.708-05 v Millonarios: -3.808-09 v Deportivo Cali: -3.308-23 v Llaneros: -2.008-28 v Internacional de Bogota: +0.108-31 v Deportivo Pereira: -1.509-05 v Cucuta: +0.0
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly

Alianza Valledupar (19th) v Junior (4th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: JUNIOR
1 33%
X 31%
2 36%
Prediction: Junior to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 43%
vs performances: Alianza Valledupar -0.32 (20g) · Junior +0.36 (26g)
xG overlay · Alianza Valledupar better on chances than on results by 0.82 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes Junior the marginal call at 36%, with Alianza Valledupar at 33% and the draw at 31%. Alianza Valledupar have lost 3 straight (3 scored, 12 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Junior the stronger. Watch Pedro Franco 馃嚚馃嚧 and Jhildrey Lasso 馃嚚馃嚧 for Alianza Valledupar, and Luis Muriel 馃嚚馃嚧 and Yeison Su谩rez for Junior.

Alianza Valledupar: Valledupar club (northern, hot lowland), recently promoted; modest budget. · Junior: Barranquilla giant, a huge Caribbean-coast fanbase and sweltering heat and humidity (a real quirk); the Metropolitano.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Alianza Valledupar (19th)

Valledupar club (northern, hot lowland), recently promoted; modest budget.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2026
Squad quality 26.1 in league · 19th of 19
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 18th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 19th (19 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 America de CaliPrimera A
  • LH1-5 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • LA0-1 CucutaPrimera A
  • DH0-0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • LH2-3 BucaramangaPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 5,0,1,6,3
Key players Pedro Franco 馃嚚馃嚧 40.0, Wiston Fern谩ndez 馃嚭馃嚲 39.8, Juan Viveros 馃嚚馃嚧 39.1, Yeiner Londo帽o 37.0, Yilson Rosales 馃嚚馃嚧 35.6
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
132019th04-19 v Independiente Medellin: -1.604-26 v Llaneros: -0.205-03 v Millonarios: -0.607-26 v Fortaleza FC: +0.008-01 v Deportes Tolima: -1.908-09 v Bucaramanga: -2.408-22 v Deportivo Pereira: +0.008-26 v Cucuta: -1.808-30 v Atletico Nacional: -5.609-03 v America de Cali: -4.0

Junior (4th)

Barranquilla giant, a huge Caribbean-coast fanbase and sweltering heat and humidity (a real quirk); the Metropolitano. Historic champions.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 57.1 in league · 6th of 19
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 4th (47 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH3-3 JaguaresPrimera A
  • DH1-1 Santa FePrimera A
  • LA2-4 America de CaliPrimera A
  • DH1-1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • LH0-1 MillonariosPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,2,6,2,6
Key players Jermein Pe帽a 馃嚚馃嚧 59.2, Luis Muriel 馃嚚馃嚧 58.8, Te贸filo Guti茅rrez 馃嚚馃嚧 46.5, Jermein Pe帽a 馃嚚馃嚧 44.9, Guillermo Paiva 馃嚨馃嚲 44.7
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 36 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
2184th05-14 v Once Caldas: -0.305-17 v Santa Fe: -0.706-03 v Atletico Nacional: +4.606-08 v Atletico Nacional: -3.007-26 v Deportes Tolima: -2.008-02 v Millonarios: -2.108-24 v Once Caldas: +0.308-26 v America de Cali: -3.908-29 v Santa Fe: +0.309-06 v Jaguares: +0.0
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly

Deportivo Pereira (20th) v Bucaramanga (13th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 31%
X 31%
2 38%
Prediction: Bucaramanga to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 38%
vs performances: Deportivo Pereira -0.22 (19g) · Bucaramanga -0.51 (16g)
xG overlay · Deportivo Pereira better on chances than on results by 0.17 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Bucaramanga the marginal call at 38%, with Deportivo Pereira at 31% and the draw at 31%. Bucaramanga are unbeaten in five (6 scored, 5 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 38%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Jorge Berm煤dez 馃嚚馃嚧 and Yuber Qui帽ones for Deportivo Pereira, and Luciano Pons 馃嚘馃嚪 and Fabi谩n Sambueza 馃嚘馃嚪 for Bucaramanga.

Deportivo Pereira: Pereira club, recent champions; Hern谩n Ram铆rez (~1,400m). · Bucaramanga: Bucaramanga club, recent champions; Alfonso L贸pez (~950m).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Deportivo Pereira (20th)

Pereira club, recent champions; Hern谩n Ram铆rez (~1,400m).

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 33.3 in league · 16th of 19
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 20th (16 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 MillonariosPrimera A
  • LH0-3 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • WA2-1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • DA0-0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • DA0-0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 0,0,3,3,2
Key players Walmer Pacheco 馃嚚馃嚧 49.7, Yimy G贸mez 馃嚚馃嚧 49.2, Richard Renter铆a 馃嚚馃嚧 44.5, Jordy Monroy 馃嚘馃嚥 42.2, Danilo Ortiz 馃嚨馃嚲 40.6
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚘馃嚥 1 路 馃嚟馃嚦 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
152020th04-10 v Once Caldas: +0.304-18 v Deportes Tolima: -3.604-25 v Atletico Nacional: +2.105-03 v America de Cali: -2.407-24 v Llaneros: -2.008-01 v Fortaleza FC: -0.508-22 v Alianza Valledupar: +0.008-31 v Deportivo Pasto: +1.509-04 v Independiente Medellin: -4.009-06 v Millonarios: +0.3

Bucaramanga (13th)

Bucaramanga club, recent champions; Alfonso L贸pez (~950m). Resurgent.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 55.8 in league · 7th of 19
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 13th (33 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • DA0-0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • WA3-2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • DH1-1 CucutaPrimera A
  • DH1-1 LlanerosPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNN match totals 2,2,5,0,2
Key players Fabi谩n Sambueza 馃嚘馃嚪 62.9, Emerson Batalla 馃嚚馃嚧 57.6, Aldair Guti茅rrez 馃嚚馃嚧 50.1, Jos茅 Ortiz 43.6, Luciano Pons 馃嚘馃嚪 41.4
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 32 路 馃嚮馃嚜 3 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2
Season pulse season 2026
21413th04-12 v Chico: +6.004-21 v Atletico Nacional: -3.104-25 v Jaguares: +0.405-03 v Fortaleza FC: -1.307-25 v Millonarios: +2.007-31 v Llaneros: +0.008-04 v Cucuta: +0.208-09 v Alianza Valledupar: +2.408-22 v Deportes Tolima: +0.008-31 v Deportivo Cali: +0.0
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly
next day · Monday

Atletico Nacional (1st) v 脕guilas Doradas (10th)

1 67%
X 26%
2 7%
Prediction: Atletico Nacional to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%
vs performances: Atletico Nacional +0.39 (30g) · 脕guilas Doradas -0.09 (18g)
xG overlay · 脕guilas Doradas better on chances than on results by 0.63 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes Atletico Nacional clear favourites at 67%, with 脕guilas Doradas at 7% and the draw at 26%. Atletico Nacional arrive on a 3-game winning run (12 scored, 4 conceded). 脕guilas Doradas are unbeaten in five (8 scored, 7 conceded). Watch Alfredo Morelos 馃嚚馃嚧 and Juan Manuel Rengifo 馃嚚馃嚧 for Atletico Nacional, and Jorge Rivaldo and Frank Lozano 馃嚚馃嚧 for 脕guilas Doradas.

Atletico Nacional: Medell铆n giant, Colombia's most successful club, 1989 and 2016 Libertadores champions with a huge fanbase; Atanasio Girardot (~1,500m). · 脕guilas Doradas: Rionegro club near Medell铆n at ~2,100m, a well-run smaller side; altitude edge.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Atletico Nacional (1st)

strong at home

Medell铆n giant, Colombia's most successful club, 1989 and 2016 Libertadores champions with a huge fanbase; Atanasio Girardot (~1,500m). The benchmark.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 77.9 in league · 2nd of 19
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 6th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 1st (67 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA5-1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • WH2-1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • WA2-1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • LA0-1 America de CaliPrimera A
  • WA3-0 JaguaresPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,1,3,3,6
Key players William Tesillo 馃嚚馃嚧 65.8, C茅sar Haydar 馃嚚馃嚧 58.7, Alfredo Morelos 馃嚚馃嚧 57.6, Marlos Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 55.0, Edwin Cardona 馃嚚馃嚧 53.3
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 37 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
1141st05-12 v Internacional de Bogota: +6.005-16 v Deportes Tolima: +2.005-23 v Deportes Tolima: +3.306-03 v Junior: -4.606-08 v Junior: +3.008-02 v Jaguares: +3.908-10 v America de Cali: -2.008-23 v Fortaleza FC: +2.808-27 v Deportivo Cali: +2.308-30 v Alianza Valledupar: +5.6

脕guilas Doradas (10th)

Rionegro club near Medell铆n at ~2,100m, a well-run smaller side; altitude edge.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 49.1 in league · 9th of 19
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 14th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 10th (36 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
  • DH2-2 ChicoPrimera A
  • DH1-1 MillonariosPrimera A
  • DH1-1 LlanerosPrimera A
  • WA2-1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,2,4,4
Key players Andr茅s Ricaurte 馃嚚馃嚧 51.9, Diego Hern谩ndez 馃嚚馃嚧 46.3, Jhon Mel茅ndez 44.2, Bryan Urue帽a 馃嚚馃嚧 43.8, John Ontaneda 馃嚜馃嚚 41.9
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
71511th04-11 v Junior: -4.304-19 v Fortaleza FC: -3.004-26 v Once Caldas: +0.405-03 v Independiente Medellin: +1.007-26 v Santa Fe: +2.008-01 v Deportivo Pasto: +2.708-19 v Llaneros: +1.008-22 v Millonarios: +0.008-30 v Chico: +0.109-06 v Internacional de Bogota: +0.9
league draws 30% · chaos 5orderly
next day · Monday

Once Caldas (6th) v Deportivo Cali (9th)

1 51%
X 30%
2 20%
Prediction: Once Caldas to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 37%
vs performances: Once Caldas +0.11 (23g) · Deportivo Cali +0.01 (20g)
xG overlay · Deportivo Cali better on chances than on results by 0.21 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Once Caldas narrow favourites at 51%, with Deportivo Cali at 20% and the draw at 30%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 37%). Watch Dayro Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 and Jefry Zapata 馃嚚馃嚧 for Once Caldas, and Steven Rodr铆guez 馃嚚馃嚧 and Johan Mart铆nez 馃嚚馃嚧 for Deportivo Cali.

Once Caldas: Manizales club, 2004 Libertadores champions, at ~2,150m; Palogrande, altitude edge. · Deportivo Cali: Cali giant, a big fanbase and the Cali derby; Palmaseca.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Once Caldas (6th)

Manizales club, 2004 Libertadores champions, at ~2,150m; Palogrande, altitude edge.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 51.4 in league · 8th of 19
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 6th (43 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 ChicoPrimera A
  • WA2-1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • DA1-1 JuniorPrimera A
  • DA1-1 JaguaresPrimera A
  • LH0-1 America de CaliPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 1,2,2,3,2
Key players Juan David Cuesta 馃嚚馃嚧 52.9, Dayro Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 46.7, Andr茅s Roa 馃嚚馃嚧 46.2, Felipe Parra 45.1, Jefry Zapata 馃嚚馃嚧 43.9
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚙馃嚧 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
2116th05-01 v Atletico Nacional: +2.005-10 v Junior: -2.005-14 v Junior: +0.307-27 v Cucuta: +5.008-03 v Santa Fe: +0.508-06 v America de Cali: -2.408-09 v Jaguares: +0.608-24 v Junior: -0.309-02 v Fortaleza FC: +2.009-05 v Chico: -3.0

Deportivo Cali (9th)

Cali giant, a big fanbase and the Cali derby; Palmaseca. Historic champions.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 46.0 in league · 12th of 19
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 15th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 9th (36 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 MillonariosPrimera A
  • DH1-1 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • LA1-2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • DH2-2 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
  • WA2-0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 2,4,3,2,2
Key players Johan Mart铆nez 馃嚚馃嚧 53.6, Gustavo Cu茅llar 馃嚚馃嚧 48.1, Leyser Chaverra Renteria 43.8, Pedro Gallese 馃嚨馃嚜 42.6, Jos茅 Caldera 馃嚚馃嚧 42.2
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 43 路 馃嚭馃嚲 4 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
61410th04-17 v Chico: -1.904-25 v America de Cali: +2.505-03 v Deportes Tolima: +0.107-25 v Jaguares: +3.008-01 v Independiente Medellin: -2.208-09 v Deportivo Pasto: +3.308-23 v Internacional de Bogota: +0.308-27 v Atletico Nacional: -2.308-31 v Bucaramanga: +0.009-11 v Millonarios: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.