Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 1 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚙馃嚪 Brasileir茫o

league draws 27% · chaos 0orderly
next day · Thursday

Botafogo (14th) v Gremio (17th)

1 58%
X 26%
2 16%
Prediction: Botafogo to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%
vs performances: Botafogo +0.01 (24g) · Gremio +0.13 (25g)
xG overlay · Botafogo better on chances than on results by 0.40 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Botafogo clear favourites at 58%, with Gremio at 16% and the draw at 26%. Gremio have lost 4 of their last five (4 scored, 8 conceded). Watch Arthur Cabral 馃嚙馃嚪 and Alex Telles 馃嚙馃嚪 for Botafogo, and Carlos Vin铆cius 馃嚙馃嚪 and Cristian Pav贸n 馃嚘馃嚪 for Gremio.

Gremio: Porto Alegre giant, Libertadores pedigree and a huge fanbase; Arena do Gr锚mio, the fierce Grenal derby with Inter.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Botafogo (14th)

Rio de Janeiro. Rio club, 2024 Libertadores and Brasileirao double winners (Textor/Eagle-owned); Nilton Santos. Recent continental champions, well-recruited.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 45.0 in league · 13th of 18
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 1st | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 14th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 RB BragantinoBrasileir茫o
  • DH0-0 PalmeirasBrasileir茫o
  • LA0-3 FlamengoBrasileir茫o
  • LH2-3 Atletico ParanaenseBrasileir茫o
  • WH1-0 CiencianoSudamericana
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 1,5,3,0,2
Key players Nahuel Ferraresi 馃嚮馃嚜 68.8, Santiago Rodr铆guez 馃嚭馃嚲 68.2, Danilo 馃嚙馃嚪 67.1, Vitinho 馃嚙馃嚪 61.7, 脕lvaro Montoro 馃嚘馃嚪 61.7
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 44 路 馃嚭馃嚲 5 路 馃嚘馃嚪 4 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚘馃嚧 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
11813th05-30 v Bahia: -2.707-16 v Santos: +1.907-23 v Vitoria: +0.507-26 v Cruzeiro: +1.408-09 v Fluminense: +0.108-16 v Vitoria: -2.608-24 v Atletico Paranaense: -1.008-30 v Flamengo: -4.509-06 v Palmeiras: +0.009-12 v RB Bragantino: +0.0

Gremio (17th)

Porto Alegre giant, Libertadores pedigree and a huge fanbase; Arena do Gr锚mio, the fierce Grenal derby with Inter.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 55.4 in league · 5th of 18
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 14th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 17th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Vasco DA GamaBrasileir茫o
  • LA0-1 VitoriaBrasileir茫o
  • WH3-1 Chapecoense-scBrasileir茫o
  • LA0-1 RB BragantinoBrasileir茫o
  • LA0-3 Atletico-MGBrasileir茫o
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,1,4,1,3
Key players Gustavo Martins 馃嚙馃嚪 77.0, Cristian Pav贸n 馃嚘馃嚪 74.0, Weverton 馃嚙馃嚪 73.8, Wallace 馃嚙馃嚪 70.4, Marlon 馃嚙馃嚪 62.6
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 35 路 馃嚘馃嚪 5 路 馃嚚馃嚧 3 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
71816th05-23 v Santos: +2.305-30 v Corinthians: -3.207-17 v Mirassol: -2.407-26 v Fluminense: +0.108-08 v Sao Paulo: +2.108-16 v Atletico-MG: -5.008-23 v RB Bragantino: -3.108-30 v Chapecoense-sc: +1.909-07 v Vitoria: -2.609-12 v Vasco DA Gama: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.