Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇧🇷 Brasileirão

league draws 27% · chaos 0orderly

Santos (12th) v Cruzeiro (6th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 39%
X 28%
2 33%
Prediction: Santos to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
vs performances: Santos -0.21 (24g) · Cruzeiro +0.01 (24g)
xG overlay · Santos better on chances than on results by 0.18 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Santos the marginal call at 39%, with Cruzeiro at 33% and the draw at 28%. Santos have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 5 conceded). Cruzeiro have won 4 of their last five (11 scored, 7 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Gabriel Barbosa 🇧🇷 and Álvaro Barreal 🇦🇷 for Santos, and Matheus Pereira 🇧🇷 and Christian 🇧🇷 for Cruzeiro.

Santos: Coastal club (Pelé and Neymar's), a famed academy; the tight old Vila Belmiro. · Cruzeiro: Belo Horizonte giant, multiple champions with a huge fanbase; the vast Mineirão.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Santos (12th)

Coastal club (Pelé and Neymar's), a famed academy; the tight old Vila Belmiro. Recently yo-yo, in a Neymar-return era.

Seasons 2023: 17th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 12th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 Atletico-MGSudamericana
  • WA3-2 InternacionalBrasileirão
  • WA1-0 CorinthiansBrasileirão
  • DH1-1 MirassolBrasileirão
  • DA0-0 MacaraSudamericana
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 2,3,2,1,5
Key players Neymar 🇧🇷 79.9, Álvaro Barreal 🇦🇷 63.6, Miguelito 61.3, Adonis Frías 🇦🇷 56.4, João Paulo Ananias 56.4
Nationalities 🇧🇷 35 · 🇦🇷 6 · 🇵🇾 2 · 🇻🇪 1 · 🇷🇺 1 · 🇩🇿 1 · +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
122012th05-17 v Coritiba: -4.205-23 v Gremio: -2.305-30 v Vitoria: +2.807-16 v Botafogo: -1.907-25 v Chapecoense-sc: +0.408-09 v Atletico Paranaense: -2.908-16 v Vasco DA Gama: +4.408-23 v Mirassol: +0.508-30 v Corinthians: +2.109-06 v Internacional: +2.0

Cruzeiro (6th)

Belo Horizonte giant, multiple champions with a huge fanbase; the vast Mineirão. Ronaldo-era backing, resurgent.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 67.3 in league · 2nd of 12
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 6th (42 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 Atletico ParanaenseBrasileirão
  • LA1-3 Vasco DA GamaBrasileirão
  • WH2-1 FlamengoBrasileirão
  • LA1-2 FlamengoLibertadores
  • WA2-1 CorinthiansBrasileirão
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,3,3,4,4
Key players Matheus Pereira 🇧🇷 83.6, Gerson 🇧🇷 71.3, João Marcelo 🇧🇷 69.9, Lucas Romero 🇦🇷 69.4, Jonathan Jesus 🇧🇷 66.8
Nationalities 🇧🇷 33 · 🇦🇷 4 · 🇨🇴 2 · 🇪🇨 2 · 🇵🇾 1 · 🇺🇾 1
Season pulse season 2026
5206th05-24 v Chapecoense-sc: +3.005-31 v Fluminense: +0.307-23 v Internacional: +2.007-26 v Botafogo: -1.407-31 v Coritiba: +2.508-09 v Mirassol: +2.708-16 v Corinthians: +2.008-22 v Flamengo: +2.008-30 v Vasco DA Gama: -4.309-06 v Atletico Paranaense: +3.0
league draws 27% · chaos 0orderly

Mirassol (16th) v Vitoria (13th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 54%
X 27%
2 19%
Prediction: Mirassol to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 49%
vs performances: Mirassol -0.22 (24g) · Vitoria +0.11 (26g)
Match preview

The model makes Mirassol narrow favourites at 54%, with Vitoria at 19% and the draw at 27%. Watch João Victor 🇧🇷 and Igor Formiga 🇧🇷 for Mirassol, and Gabriel Baralhas 🇧🇷 and Erick 🇧🇷 for Vitoria.

Mirassol: Small São Paulo-interior club, a remarkable rise to Serie A from a modest base; small ground. · Vitoria: Salvador club, a big northeastern fanbase and the fierce Ba-Vi derby with Bahia; Barradão, heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Mirassol (16th)

Small São Paulo-interior club, a remarkable rise to Serie A from a modest base; small ground. Overachieving newcomer.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 51.7 in league · 6th of 12
Seasons 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 16th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 CoritibaBrasileirão
  • LA0-2 FlamengoBrasileirão
  • DH1-1 PalmeirasBrasileirão
  • DA1-1 SantosBrasileirão
  • DA0-0 LDU de QuitoLibertadores
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 6,2,2,2,3
Key players Igor Formiga 🇧🇷 73.2, Willian Machado 🇧🇷 70.8, Reinaldo 🇧🇷 66.2, João Victor 🇧🇷 65.8, Negueba 🇧🇷 62.0
Nationalities 🇧🇷 52 · 🇵🇾 1 · 🇦🇷 1
Season pulse season 2026
32016th05-30 v Atletico Paranaense: -2.407-17 v Gremio: +2.407-25 v Vasco DA Gama: -0.507-29 v Remo: +2.308-09 v Cruzeiro: -2.708-16 v Flamengo: -5.608-23 v Santos: -0.508-30 v Palmeiras: -0.409-02 v Flamengo: -3.009-06 v Coritiba: +2.0

Vitoria (13th)

Salvador club, a big northeastern fanbase and the fierce Ba-Vi derby with Bahia; Barradão, heat. Yo-yo side.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 46.7 in league · 7th of 12
Seasons 2024: 11th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 13th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 GremioBrasileirão
  • LA1-2 Atletico-MGBrasileirão
  • LH0-2 BahiaBrasileirão
  • WH1-0 BotafogoBrasileirão
  • LA0-2 FlamengoBrasileirão
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,1,2,3,1
Key players Lucas Arcanjo 🇧🇷 74.4, Erick 🇧🇷 70.1, Zé Vitor 🇧🇷 66.3, Renê Sousa 61.7, Matheuzinho 🇧🇷 61.1
Nationalities 🇧🇷 56 · 🇦🇷 4 · 🇵🇹 2 · 🇵🇾 1 · 🇺🇾 1 · 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1 · +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
21614th05-30 v Santos: -2.807-16 v Vasco DA Gama: +1.907-23 v Botafogo: -0.507-26 v Remo: -2.707-30 v Palmeiras: -5.508-09 v Flamengo: -3.508-16 v Botafogo: +2.608-23 v Bahia: -4.808-29 v Atletico-MG: -2.409-07 v Gremio: +2.6
league draws 27% · chaos 0orderly
next day · Monday

Flamengo (1st) v Corinthians (11th)

1 65%
X 23%
2 11%
Prediction: Flamengo to win (strong) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 50%
vs performances: Flamengo +0.31 (23g) · Corinthians -0.02 (25g)
xG overlay · Corinthians better on chances than on results by 0.63 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Flamengo clear favourites at 65%, with Corinthians at 11% and the draw at 23%. Flamengo arrive on a 3-game winning run (12 scored, 3 conceded). Corinthians have lost 4 straight (5 scored, 7 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 40%. Watch Pedro 🇧🇷 and Samuel Lino 🇧🇷 for Flamengo, and Rodrigo Garro 🇦🇷 and Yuri Alberto 🇧🇷 for Corinthians.

Corinthians: São Paulo giant, one of Brazil's biggest and most fervent fanbases (the Fiel); Neo Química Arena.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Flamengo (1st)

Rio de Janeiro. Rio giant, Brazil's most-supported club with a vast fanbase, serial recent champions and Libertadores winners; Maracanã. The domestic benchmark, deep expensive squad.

Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (54 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 Independiente del ValleLibertadores
  • WA1-0 RemoBrasileirão
  • WH2-0 MirassolBrasileirão
  • WH3-0 BotafogoBrasileirão
  • LA1-2 CruzeiroBrasileirão
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 6,3,3,2,1
Key players Danilo 🇧🇷 63.3, Vitão 🇧🇷 59.3, Guillermo Varela 🇺🇾 57.5, Evertton Araujo 52.7, Alex Sandro 🇧🇷 49.9
Nationalities 🇧🇷 36 · 🇺🇾 4 · 🇦🇷 1 · 🇪🇨 1 · 🇪🇸 1 · 🇮🇹 1 · +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
1151st05-30 v Coritiba: +4.307-23 v Chapecoense-sc: +4.907-26 v Sao Paulo: +0.807-29 v Internacional: +0.008-09 v Vitoria: +3.508-16 v Mirassol: +5.608-22 v Cruzeiro: -2.008-30 v Botafogo: +4.509-02 v Mirassol: +3.009-06 v Remo: +2.0

Corinthians (11th)

São Paulo giant, one of Brazil's biggest and most fervent fanbases (the Fiel); Neo Química Arena. Massive support, streaky form.

Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 11th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Estudiantes L.P.Libertadores
  • LH1-2 Chapecoense-scBrasileirão
  • LH0-1 SantosBrasileirão
  • LA1-2 CoritibaBrasileirão
  • WH1-0 Rosario CentralLibertadores
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 2,3,3,1,3
Key players André Ramalho 🇧🇷 68.9, João Pedro Tchoca 63.5, Raniele 🇧🇷 60.0, Fabrizio Angileri 🇦🇷 59.5, André Luiz 🇧🇷 57.6
Nationalities 🇧🇷 32 · 🇦🇷 2 · 🇵🇪 1 · 🇵🇾 1 · 🇪🇸 1 · 🇻🇪 1 · +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
41911th05-24 v Atletico-MG: +1.405-30 v Gremio: +3.207-23 v Remo: +4.807-26 v Bahia: -0.107-30 v Atletico Paranaense: +0.308-09 v RB Bragantino: +3.508-16 v Cruzeiro: -2.008-23 v Coritiba: -1.908-30 v Santos: -2.109-06 v Chapecoense-sc: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.