Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚘馃嚬 Austrian Bundesliga

league draws 24% · chaos 44orderly

Austria Vienna (12th) v Austria Lustenau (8th)

1 54%
X 25%
2 22%
Prediction: Austria Vienna to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 55%
vs performances: Austria Vienna +0.10 (4g) · Austria Lustenau +0.05 (5g)
Match preview

The model makes Austria Vienna narrow favourites at 54%, with Austria Lustenau at 22% and the draw at 25%. Austria Vienna have lost 4 of their last five (3 scored, 10 conceded). Watch D. Fitz 馃嚘馃嚬 and J. Eggestein 馃嚛馃嚜 for Austria Vienna, and Dominik Weixelbraun 馃嚘馃嚬 and Danilo Soares 馃嚙馃嚪 for Austria Lustenau.

Austria Vienna: Vienna giant (Violets), 24-time Austrian champions; Generali Arena. · Austria Lustenau: Vorarlberg club, yo-yo top-flight side; the compact Reichshofstadion (artificial pitch, a genuine surface edge).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Austria Vienna (12th)

Vienna giant (Violets), 24-time Austrian champions; Generali Arena. UECL entrant; big fanbase, top-4 profile, sells and rebuilds.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 36.0 in league · 10th of 11
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 12th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 WSG WattensAustrian Bundesliga
  • LA1-4 Red Bull SalzburgAustrian Bundesliga
  • DH0-0 SC BragaUECL
  • LA0-2 SC BragaUECL
  • WA2-0 TSV HartbergAustrian Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,2,2,5,1
Key players Matteo Schablas 馃嚛馃嚜 49.9, Daniel Nnodim 馃嚘馃嚬 48.8, Johannes Handl 馃嚘馃嚬 48.7, Reinhold Ranftl 馃嚘馃嚬 48.2, Lee Tae-seok 馃嚢馃嚪 47.3
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚬 24 路 馃嚛馃嚜 4 路 馃嚢馃嚪 2 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
81212th08-02 v Wolfsberger AC: -5.108-09 v Lask Linz: -4.608-16 v TSV Hartberg: +3.208-30 v Red Bull Salzburg: -4.509-02 v WSG Wattens: -2.0

Austria Lustenau (8th)

Vorarlberg club, yo-yo top-flight side; the compact Reichshofstadion (artificial pitch, a genuine surface edge). Small budget, relegation-scrappy overachiever.

Seasons 2023: 12th | 2026 so far: 8th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-4 WSG WattensAustrian Bundesliga
  • DA1-1 Sturm GrazAustrian Bundesliga
  • WH2-1 Wolfsberger ACAustrian Bundesliga
  • LA1-2 Grazer AKAustrian Bundesliga
  • DH1-1 RiedAustrian Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 2,3,3,2,4
Key players Danilo Soares 馃嚙馃嚪 59.6, Domenik Schierl 馃嚘馃嚬 54.4, Dion Kacuri 馃嚚馃嚟 50.6, Dominik Weixelbraun 馃嚘馃嚬 49.8, Lord Afrifa 馃嚞馃嚟 47.8
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚬 8 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚚馃嚟 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
598th08-02 v Ried: -0.808-08 v Grazer AK: -2.508-15 v Wolfsberger AC: +2.808-22 v Sturm Graz: -0.508-28 v WSG Wattens: -5.6
league draws 24% · chaos 44orderly

WSG Wattens (5th) v TSV Hartberg (6th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 38%
X 26%
2 36%
Prediction: WSG Wattens to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 50%
vs performances: WSG Wattens -0.04 (4g) · TSV Hartberg +0.26 (5g)
Squad overlay · WSG Wattens stronger by 0.06, shifted the price by up to 0.1 pts
xG overlay · WSG Wattens better on chances than on results by 0.68 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes WSG Wattens the marginal call at 38%, with TSV Hartberg at 36% and the draw at 26%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Valentino M眉ller 馃嚘馃嚬 and Moritz Wels 馃嚘馃嚬 for WSG Wattens, and Elias Havel 馃嚘馃嚬 and Fabian Wilfinger 馃嚘馃嚬 for TSV Hartberg.

WSG Wattens: Tyrol club (WSG Tirol), based in tiny Wattens, plays in Innsbruck; small ground, modest budget. · TSV Hartberg: Tiny Styrian town club, the smallest-town side in the Austrian top flight; compact Profertil Arena.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

WSG Wattens (5th)

Tyrol club (WSG Tirol), based in tiny Wattens, plays in Innsbruck; small ground, modest budget. Overachieving developer, relegation-scrappy.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 45.9 in league · 5th of 11
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 5th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 Austria ViennaAustrian Bundesliga
  • WA4-0 Austria LustenauAustrian Bundesliga
  • LH0-3 Red Bull SalzburgAustrian Bundesliga
  • LA1-3 SCR AltachAustrian Bundesliga
  • DH1-1 Sturm GrazAustrian Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,4,3,4,1
Key players Marco Boras 馃嚟馃嚪 58.3, Nikolai Baden Frederiksen 馃嚛馃嚢 57.4, Matth盲us Taferner 馃嚘馃嚬 57.3, Valentino M眉ller 馃嚘馃嚬 53.9, Salko Hamzi膰 馃嚙馃嚘 51.2
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚬 21 路 馃嚛馃嚜 4 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 馃嚚馃嚳 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
4125th08-01 v Sturm Graz: -0.808-07 v SCR Altach: -3.508-16 v Red Bull Salzburg: -4.808-28 v Austria Lustenau: +5.609-02 v Austria Vienna: +2.0

TSV Hartberg (6th)

Tiny Styrian town club, the smallest-town side in the Austrian top flight; compact Profertil Arena. A remarkable overachiever, perennial survival story.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 41.3 in league · 7th of 11
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 6th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-2 RiedAustrian Bundesliga
  • WA2-1 SCR AltachAustrian Bundesliga
  • LH0-2 Austria ViennaAustrian Bundesliga
  • LH0-2 Sturm GrazAustrian Bundesliga
  • LA0-1 Red Bull SalzburgAustrian Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,2,2,3,5
Key players Fabian Wilfinger 馃嚘馃嚬 54.5, 脕rmin P茅csi 馃嚟馃嚭 53.3, Tobias Kainz 馃嚘馃嚬 52.5, Lukas Spendlhofer 馃嚘馃嚬 50.4, Luca Pazourek 馃嚘馃嚬 49.1
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚬 18 路 馃嚛馃嚜 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
5126th08-01 v Red Bull Salzburg: -3.608-08 v Sturm Graz: -3.608-16 v Austria Vienna: -3.208-22 v SCR Altach: +1.708-30 v Ried: +2.5
league draws 24% · chaos 44orderly

Sturm Graz (4th) v Lask Linz (1st)🔥

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 35%
X 26%
2 39%
Prediction: Lask Linz to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 55%↑1.1
vs performances: Sturm Graz -0.18 (5g) · Lask Linz +0.47 (4g)
Squad overlay · Lask Linz stronger by 0.21, shifted the price by up to 0.4 pts
xG overlay · Sturm Graz better on chances than on results by 0.18 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Lask Linz the marginal call at 39%, with Sturm Graz at 35% and the draw at 26%. Lask Linz arrive on a 5-game winning run (15 scored, 2 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Otar Kiteishvili 馃嚞馃嚜 and Dimitri Laval茅e 馃嚙馃嚜 for Sturm Graz, and M. Usor 馃嚦馃嚞 and A. Andrade 馃嚨馃嚘 for Lask Linz.

Sturm Graz: Back-to-back-era Austrian champions, breaking Salzburg's grip; Merkur Arena, loud Graz support. · Lask Linz: Linz club, 2020s European regular and title challenger; Raiffeisen Arena.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sturm Graz (4th)

draw merchants

Back-to-back-era Austrian champions, breaking Salzburg's grip; Merkur Arena, loud Graz support. Qualified via the Champions League route. Strong, well-coached.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 60.9 in league · 4th of 11
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 1st | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 4th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 Rapid ViennaAustrian Bundesliga
  • DH1-1 Austria LustenauAustrian Bundesliga
  • WH1-0 SCR AltachAustrian Bundesliga
  • LH0-1 Fenerbah莽eUCL
  • WA2-0 TSV HartbergAustrian Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,2,1,2,4
Key players Daniil Khudyakov 馃嚪馃嚭 66.4, Otar Kiteishvili 馃嚞馃嚜 65.1, Emran Soglo 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 61.5, Albert Vallci 馃嚘馃嚬 60.5, Simon Seidl 馃嚘馃嚬 57.1
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚬 17 路 馃嚫馃嚠 4 路 馃嚛馃嚢 4 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚞馃嚜 2 路 +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
184th08-01 v WSG Wattens: +0.808-08 v TSV Hartberg: +3.608-15 v SCR Altach: +2.208-22 v Austria Lustenau: +0.508-30 v Rapid Vienna: -3.6

Lask Linz (1st)🔥

FOREIGN CORE 68%

Linz club, 2020s European regular and title challenger; Raiffeisen Arena. Predicted qualifier; pressing identity, sells stars.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 78.5 in league · 1st of 11
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 AEK Athens FCUCL
  • WA3-1 Wolfsberger ACAustrian Bundesliga
  • WH3-0 SCR AltachAustrian Bundesliga
  • WH5-1 CelticUCL
  • LA0-3 CelticUCL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,2,5,3,4
Key players Andr茅s Andrade 馃嚨馃嚘 72.6, Moses Usor 馃嚦馃嚞 71.4, Melayro Bogarde 馃嚦馃嚤 71.2, Xavier Mbuyamba 馃嚦馃嚤 68.7, Sa拧a Kalajd啪i膰 67.6
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚬 12 路 馃嚦馃嚞 4 路 馃嚥馃嚤 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚱馃嚢 2 路 +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
121st07-31 v Grazer AK: +4.808-09 v Austria Vienna: +4.608-14 v Ried: +4.708-29 v SCR Altach: +5.309-01 v Wolfsberger AC: +3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.