Daily Football Model

2026-10-03 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA Internationals Intel Intl Composite → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚭馃嚲 Primera Divisi贸n

league draws 28% · chaos 86volatile

Liverpool Montevideo (7th) v Progreso (15th)

1 65%
X 22%
2 13%
Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
Match preview

The model makes Liverpool Montevideo clear favourites at 65%, with Progreso at 13% and the draw at 22%. Progreso have won 4 of their last five (7 scored, 5 conceded).

Liverpool Montevideo: Montevideo club (no relation to England), resurgent; Belvedere. · Progreso: Montevideo club, 1989 champions, now modest; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Liverpool Montevideo (7th)

Montevideo club (no relation to England), resurgent; Belvedere.

Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 14th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 7th (46 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 Central EspanolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA1-3 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 Boston RiverPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 Cerro LargoPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 2,1,4,0,3
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 26 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
1117th07-25 v Defensor Sporting: +2.008-02 v Central Espanol: +0.008-08 v Albion FC: +2.008-16 v Defensor Sporting: +5.008-21 v Cerro: +5.008-30 v Cerro Largo: +0.009-06 v Boston River: +2.009-14 v Atletico Torque: -3.009-20 v Racing Montevideo: +0.009-27 v Central Espanol: +2.0

Progreso (15th)

Montevideo club, 1989 champions, now modest; small ground.

Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 15th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA2-1 Boston RiverPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH1-3 CerroPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 Albion FCPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 DanubioPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 1,1,4,3,3
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 30 路 馃嚚馃嚧 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
131615th07-18 v Deportivo Maldonado: +2.008-02 v Club Nacional: -2.008-08 v Central Espanol: -2.008-16 v Deportivo Maldonado: -3.008-23 v Club Nacional: -2.008-29 v Danubio: +2.009-07 v Albion FC: +2.009-13 v Cerro: -3.009-19 v Boston River: +2.009-26 v Racing Montevideo: +2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 86volatile

Albion FC (11th) v Defensor Sporting (10th)

1 32%
X 29%
2 39%
Prediction: Defensor Sporting to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 41%
Match preview

The model makes Defensor Sporting the marginal call at 39%, with Albion FC at 32% and the draw at 29%. Albion FC have lost 5 straight (3 scored, 10 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 41%).

Albion FC: Montevideo club, Uruguay's oldest, historically small and recently promoted; tiny ground. · Defensor Sporting: Montevideo club, well-run with a productive academy; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Albion FC (11th)

Montevideo club, Uruguay's oldest, historically small and recently promoted; tiny ground.

Seasons 2026 so far: 11th (34 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH1-3 JuventudPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA1-3 PenarolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 ProgresoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 1,1,4,4,3
Season pulse season 2026
31610th07-17 v Juventud: -2.008-01 v Danubio: +0.008-08 v Liverpool Montevideo: -2.008-15 v Cerro: -2.008-21 v Boston River: -2.008-31 v Racing Montevideo: -2.009-07 v Progreso: -2.009-13 v Penarol: -3.009-20 v Juventud: -3.009-28 v Wanderers: -2.0

Defensor Sporting (10th)

Montevideo club, well-run with a productive academy; small ground.

Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 10th (35 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 DanubioPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA2-3 Club NacionalPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 Central EspanolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH1-3 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 4,2,1,5,1
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 33 路 馃嚘馃嚪 5 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚨馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
21312th07-25 v Liverpool Montevideo: -2.008-03 v Cerro: +2.008-09 v Wanderers: -2.008-16 v Liverpool Montevideo: -5.008-22 v Cerro Largo: +0.008-29 v Atletico Torque: -3.009-06 v Central Espanol: +0.009-13 v Deportivo Maldonado: +2.009-20 v Club Nacional: -2.009-27 v Danubio: +2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 86volatile
next day · Sunday

Deportivo Maldonado (2nd) v Central Espanol (8th)

1 55%
X 26%
2 19%
Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 46%
Match preview

The model makes Deportivo Maldonado narrow favourites at 55%, with Central Espanol at 19% and the draw at 26%. Deportivo Maldonado have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 3 conceded).

Deportivo Maldonado: Maldonado club, an unusual foreign-player transfer conduit; modest on the pitch. · Central Espanol: Montevideo club, historic and modest; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Deportivo Maldonado (2nd)

Maldonado club, an unusual foreign-player transfer conduit; modest on the pitch.

Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 15th | 2026 so far: 2nd (55 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH2-0 Cerro LargoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 Defensor SportingPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH2-0 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-2 JuventudPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 2,2,1,2,2
Season pulse season 2026
182nd07-18 v Progreso: -2.008-01 v Juventud: +0.008-10 v Racing Montevideo: +0.008-16 v Progreso: +3.008-22 v Penarol: +0.008-29 v Juventud: -3.009-05 v Wanderers: +3.009-13 v Defensor Sporting: -2.009-19 v Cerro Largo: +3.009-27 v Atletico Torque: +3.0

Central Espanol (8th)

Montevideo club, historic and modest; small ground.

Seasons 2026 so far: 8th (38 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Liverpool MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH1-4 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA0-0 Cerro LargoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 Defensor SportingPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-3 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,0,5,3
Season pulse season 2026
1128th07-25 v Cerro Largo: -2.008-02 v Liverpool Montevideo: +0.008-08 v Progreso: +2.008-16 v Penarol: -2.008-22 v Juventud: -2.008-28 v Wanderers: -4.009-06 v Defensor Sporting: +0.009-12 v Cerro Largo: +0.009-21 v Atletico Torque: -4.009-27 v Liverpool Montevideo: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.