Daily Football Model

2026-09-15 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 Scottish Premiership

league draws 26% · chaos 34orderly

Falkirk (11th) v Heart Of Midlothian (3rd)

1 24%
X 26%
2 51%
Prediction: Heart Of Midlothian to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%↓0.7
Squad overlay · Heart Of Midlothian stronger by 0.35, shifted the price by up to 1.2 pts
xG overlay · Falkirk better on chances than on results by 1.11 goals, shifted the price by up to 5.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Heart Of Midlothian narrow favourites at 51%, with Falkirk at 24% and the draw at 26%. Heart Of Midlothian arrive on a 4-game winning run (12 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Calvin Miller 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 and Brad Spencer 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 for Falkirk, and L. Shankland 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 and M. Leonard 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 for Heart Of Midlothian.

Falkirk: Stirlingshire club (the Bairns), recently promoted after dominating the lower tiers; the Falkirk Stadium. · Heart Of Midlothian: Edinburgh giant (Hearts), traditionally Scotland's third force; Tynecastle, tight and hostile.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Falkirk (11th)

Stirlingshire club (the Bairns), recently promoted after dominating the lower tiers; the Falkirk Stadium. Historic Scottish Cup pedigree; back in the top flight, survival the aim.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 32.9 in league · 11th of 12
Seasons 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 11th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Dundee UtdScottish Premiership
  • LH1-2 RangersScottish Premiership
  • LA1-2 CelticScottish Premiership
  • DA0-0 MotherwellScottish Premiership
  • LH0-2 ST MirrenScottish Premiership
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 2,0,3,3,2
Key players Scott Bain 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 53.8, Ben Broggio 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 50.1, Craig Sibbald 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 46.1, Brad Spencer 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 45.8, Liam Henderson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 45.5
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 22 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 12 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 2 路 馃嚚馃嚘 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
101211th08-01 v ST Mirren: -3.408-09 v Motherwell: -0.208-29 v Celtic: -2.009-02 v Rangers: -2.009-05 v Dundee Utd: +0.0

Heart Of Midlothian (3rd)

Edinburgh giant (Hearts), traditionally Scotland's third force; Tynecastle, tight and hostile. UCL/UECL entrant; big fanbase, fan-owned era, European regular.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 60.9 in league · 3rd of 12
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 6th | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 3rd (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 DundeeScottish Premiership
  • WA3-1 HibernianScottish Premiership
  • WH2-1 ST JohnstoneScottish Premiership
  • DA1-1 Rapid ViennaUECL
  • DH2-2 Rapid ViennaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,4,3,4,3
Key players Marc Leonard 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 61.1, Josh McPake 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 59.5, Blair Spittal 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 59.2, Harry Milne 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 58.1, Oisin McEntee 馃嚠馃嚜 57.5
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 15 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1 路 +15 more
Season pulse season 2026
2113rd08-01 v Aberdeen: -2.508-09 v Dundee Utd: +5.808-29 v ST Johnstone: +2.009-03 v Hibernian: +3.009-06 v Dundee: +2.0
league draws 26% · chaos 34orderly

Hibernian (8th) v Kilmarnock (12th)

1 60%
X 23%
2 16%
Prediction: Hibernian to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 61%↓2.1
vs performances: Hibernian +0.36 (3g) · Kilmarnock -0.52 (3g)
Squad overlay · Hibernian stronger by 0.20, shifted the price by up to 0.6 pts
xG overlay · Kilmarnock better on chances than on results by 0.12 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Hibernian clear favourites at 60%, with Kilmarnock at 16% and the draw at 23%. Kilmarnock have lost 4 of their last five (4 scored, 14 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. Watch J. McGrath 馃嚠馃嚜 and J. Hoilett 馃嚚馃嚘 for Hibernian, and Findlay Curtis 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 and T. John-Jules 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Kilmarnock.

Hibernian: Edinburgh club (Hibs), historic cup winners; Easter Road. · Kilmarnock: Ayrshire club (Killie), European qualifier via strong league finishes; Rugby Park, artificial pitch (a genuine surface edge).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Hibernian (8th)

Edinburgh club (Hibs), historic cup winners; Easter Road. UECL entrant; passionate support, fierce derby with Hearts.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 52.1 in league · 4th of 12
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 8th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 ST JohnstoneScottish Premiership
  • LH1-3 Heart Of MidlothianScottish Premiership
  • WA2-1 DundeeScottish Premiership
  • LH2-3 GentUECL
  • DA0-0 GentUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,3,3,4,3
Key players Jason Kerr 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 59.9, Nicky Cadden 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 52.4, Warren O'Hora 馃嚠馃嚜 50.1, Martin Boyle 馃嚘馃嚭 49.5, Adam Mayor 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.4
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 12 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 11 路 馃嚘馃嚭 2 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚚馃嚛 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
5108th08-02 v Motherwell: -2.008-09 v Rangers: +1.908-30 v Dundee: +2.809-03 v Heart Of Midlothian: -3.009-06 v ST Johnstone: -2.0

Kilmarnock (12th)

Ayrshire club (Killie), European qualifier via strong league finishes; Rugby Park, artificial pitch (a genuine surface edge). Predicted qualifier; overachiever.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 36.0 in league · 10th of 12
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 12th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 AberdeenScottish Premiership
  • LH0-1 ST MirrenScottish Premiership
  • LH0-4 Dundee UtdScottish Premiership
  • LH1-5 CelticScottish Premiership
  • LA3-4 ST JohnstoneScottish Premiership
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 7,6,4,1,0
Key players Greg Kiltie 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 53.5, Tyreece John-Jules 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 51.5, Max Stryjek 馃嚨馃嚤 48.4, Aaron Tshibola 馃嚚馃嚛 46.5, Robbie Deas 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 45.3
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 17 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 9 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 4 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 馃嚦馃嚳 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
111212th08-02 v ST Johnstone: -2.508-09 v Celtic: -6.008-29 v Dundee Utd: -5.009-02 v ST Mirren: -2.309-05 v Aberdeen: +0.0
league draws 26% · chaos 34orderly

Motherwell (5th) v Aberdeen (10th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 61%
X 23%
2 16%
Prediction: Motherwell to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 45%↓0.9
vs performances: Motherwell +0.21 (4g) · Aberdeen +0.04 (3g)
Squad overlay · Motherwell stronger by 0.04, shifted the price by up to 0.1 pts
xG overlay · Aberdeen better on chances than on results by 0.27 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes Motherwell clear favourites at 61%, with Aberdeen at 16% and the draw at 23%. Watch E. Watt 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 and Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Motherwell, and A. Jensen 馃嚛馃嚢 and T. Keskinen 馃嚝馃嚠 for Aberdeen.

Motherwell: Steady Scottish top-six club (the Steelmen); Fir Park, tight ground. · Aberdeen: North-east giant (the Dons), 1983 Cup Winners' Cup winners, recent Scottish Cup winners; Pittodrie, cold and windy.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Motherwell (5th)

Steady Scottish top-six club (the Steelmen); Fir Park, tight ground. UECL entrant; develops and sells, overachiever.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 48.7 in league · 6th of 12
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 5th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 RangersScottish Premiership
  • WH3-0 Dundee UtdScottish Premiership
  • DA3-3 ST MirrenScottish Premiership
  • LA1-4 SC FreiburgUECL
  • LH1-3 SC FreiburgUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,0,6,3,1
Key players Paul McGinn 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 51.4, Jardell Kanga 馃嚫馃嚜 51.0, Alex Lowry 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 49.3, Martin Moormann 馃嚘馃嚬 48.2, Tawanda Maswanhise 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 48.0
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 18 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 8 路 馃嚘馃嚭 4 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚦馃嚳 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
365th08-02 v Hibernian: +2.008-09 v Falkirk: +0.208-30 v ST Mirren: -0.109-02 v Dundee Utd: +5.009-05 v Rangers: -2.0

Aberdeen (10th)

North-east giant (the Dons), 1983 Cup Winners' Cup winners, recent Scottish Cup winners; Pittodrie, cold and windy. Predicted qualifier; European pedigree, best of the rest.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 45.6 in league · 8th of 12
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 10th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 KilmarnockScottish Premiership
  • LA0-3 CelticScottish Premiership
  • LH0-1 RangersScottish Premiership
  • LA0-2 DundeeScottish Premiership
  • WH2-1 Heart Of MidlothianScottish Premiership
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,2,1,3,0
Key players Marius M眉ller 馃嚛馃嚜 60.4, Stuart Armstrong 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 50.0, Daniel Happe 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.4, Graeme Shinnie 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 47.3, Lewis Smith 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 47.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 13 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 7 路 馃嚘馃嚭 3 路 馃嚛馃嚜 3 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 +17 more
Season pulse season 2026
21010th08-01 v Heart Of Midlothian: +2.508-08 v Dundee: -3.808-30 v Rangers: -2.709-02 v Celtic: -4.009-05 v Kilmarnock: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.