Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚪馃嚭 Russian Premier League

league draws 29% · chaos 36orderly

Rodina Moskva (15th) v Rubin (8th)

1 32%
X 27%
2 41%
Prediction: Rubin to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
Match preview

The model makes Rubin the marginal call at 41%, with Rodina Moskva at 32% and the draw at 27%. Rodina Moskva have lost 4 straight (5 scored, 13 conceded). Rubin are unbeaten in five (7 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Artem Maksimenko 馃嚪馃嚭 and Artem Meshchaninov 馃嚪馃嚭 for Rodina Moskva, and Mirlind Daku 馃嚘馃嚤 for Rubin.

Rodina Moskva: Privately-owned Moscow project club in the top flight for the first time in its short history, promoted from the First League. · Rubin: Kazan's 2008-09 champions, now steady mid-table; Ak Bars Arena.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Rodina Moskva (15th)

Privately-owned Moscow project club in the top flight for the first time in its short history, promoted from the First League. Tiny ground, no fanbase to speak of. The league's clearest relegation favourite.

Squad quality 30.8 in league · 15th of 16
Seasons 2026 so far: 15th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Krylia SovetovRussian Premier League
  • LA0-2 Dinamo MakhachkalaRussian Premier League
  • LH0-3 BaltikaRussian Premier League
  • LA1-3 DynamoRussian Premier League
  • DH3-3 AkronRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 6,4,3,2,3
Key players Sergey Volkov 馃嚪馃嚭 65.8, Micka毛l Nad茅 馃嚝馃嚪 63.4, Iker Pozo 馃嚜馃嚫 63.3, German Onugkha 馃嚪馃嚭 54.4, Artem Maksimenko 馃嚪馃嚭 53.6
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 20 路 馃嚨馃嚜 1 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 馃嚞馃嚦 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1
Season pulse season 2026
111615th07-25 v Spartak Moscow: -4.007-31 v FC Rostov: -3.008-09 v Zenit: +2.008-15 v Akron: +0.008-23 v Dynamo: -3.008-30 v Baltika: -4.009-06 v Dinamo Makhachkala: -3.009-11 v Krylia Sovetov: -2.0

Rubin (8th)

draw merchants

Kazan's 2008-09 champions, now steady mid-table; Ak Bars Arena. Striker Mirlind Daku carries the attack. 8th-12th projection; tough at home, blunt away.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 47.8 in league · 7th of 16
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 8th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 AkhmatRussian Premier League
  • WH3-1 Dinamo MakhachkalaRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 BaltikaRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 FC RostovRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNN match totals 2,2,4,2,2
Key players Aleksandar Juki膰 馃嚘馃嚬 68.1, Anderson Arroyo 馃嚚馃嚧 63.8, Nazmi Gripshi 馃嚘馃嚤 63.0, Egor Teslenko 馃嚪馃嚭 62.3, Jacques Siwe 馃嚝馃嚪 61.4
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 19 路 馃嚘馃嚤 3 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
7148th07-26 v FC Krasnodar: -3.008-01 v Akron: +2.008-09 v FC Orenburg: +0.008-15 v FC Rostov: +0.008-24 v Baltika: +0.008-30 v Dinamo Makhachkala: +3.009-07 v Akhmat: +0.009-12 v CSKA Moscow: +0.0
league draws 29% · chaos 36orderly

Spartak Moscow (2nd) v Fakel (16th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: SPARTAK MOSCOW
1 72%
X 19%
2 9%
Prediction: Spartak Moscow to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%↓1.6
Match preview

The model makes Spartak Moscow clear favourites at 72%, with Fakel at 9% and the draw at 19%. Spartak Moscow have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 4 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Spartak Moscow the stronger. Watch Manfred Ugalde 馃嚚馃嚪 and Esequiel Barco 馃嚘馃嚪 for Spartak Moscow, and Vyacheslav Yakimov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Albert Gabaraev 馃嚪馃嚭 for Fakel.

Spartak Moscow: Cup winners 25/26 (beat Krasnodar in the final) but league inconsistency continues - no title since 2017. · Fakel: Voronezh club promoted straight back after 24/25 relegation.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Spartak Moscow (2nd)

Cup winners 25/26 (beat Krasnodar in the final) but league inconsistency continues - no title since 2017. Lukoil Arena, biggest fanbase and pressure in Russia. Ugalde-led attack; top-4 baseline, title credibility still missing.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 64.1 in league · 4th of 16
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 2nd (16 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 FC RostovRussian Premier League
  • LA1-2 DynamoRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
  • WH2-0 ZenitRussian Premier League
  • WA2-1 BaltikaRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,2,3,3
Key players Esequiel Barco 馃嚘馃嚪 79.6, Aleksandr Maksimenko 馃嚪馃嚭 71.9, Alexander Djiku 馃嚞馃嚟 69.4, Pablo Solari 馃嚘馃嚪 67.8, Ruslan Litvinov 馃嚪馃嚭 66.5
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 18 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
252nd07-25 v Rodina Moskva: +4.008-02 v Akhmat: +2.008-09 v FC Krasnodar: -2.008-16 v Baltika: +2.008-23 v Zenit: +3.008-30 v FC Orenburg: +0.009-06 v Dynamo: -2.009-13 v FC Rostov: +4.0

Fakel (16th)

Voronezh club promoted straight back after 24/25 relegation. Fanatical support, tight Tsentralny ground. Survival-only ambitions; home noise their main weapon.

Style Long ball, physical from 2024
Squad quality 25.9 in league · 16th of 16
Seasons 2024: 16th | 2026 so far: 16th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 BaltikaRussian Premier League
  • LA1-3 FC RostovRussian Premier League
  • LH0-1 ZenitRussian Premier League
  • DH0-0 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
  • LA0-1 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,0,1,4,4
Key players Matvey Bardachev 馃嚪馃嚭 62.5, Yuriy Zhuravlev 馃嚪馃嚭 55.2, Igor Yurganov 馃嚪馃嚭 52.4, Ravil Netfullin 馃嚪馃嚭 52.4, Nikolay Giorgobiani 馃嚪馃嚭 52.2
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 17 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
131616th07-25 v Dinamo Makhachkala: -2.008-02 v FC Krasnodar: -2.008-10 v Akhmat: +0.008-15 v CSKA Moscow: -2.008-22 v FC Orenburg: +0.008-29 v Zenit: -2.009-05 v FC Rostov: -3.009-12 v Baltika: +0.0
league draws 29% · chaos 36orderly

Baltika (7th) v Zenit (5th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH⚡ SQUAD GAP: ZENIT
1 24%
X 28%
2 48%
Prediction: Zenit to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 31%↓1.1
Match preview

The model makes Zenit narrow favourites at 48%, with Baltika at 24% and the draw at 28%. Zenit have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 5 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 38%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 31%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Zenit the stronger. Watch Maksim Petrov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Brayan Gil 馃嚫馃嚮 for Baltika, and Maksim Glushenkov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Douglas Santos 馃嚙馃嚪 for Zenit.

Baltika: Kaliningrad exclave = every away team flies over foreign airspace to get there, a unique RPL travel quirk.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Baltika (7th)

Kaliningrad exclave = every away team flies over foreign airspace to get there, a unique RPL travel quirk. Promoted as 24/25 First League champions and consolidated in 25/26. Strong home edge; lower-mid projection.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 47.2 in league · 8th of 16
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 7th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 FakelRussian Premier League
  • LH0-1 LokomotivRussian Premier League
  • WA3-0 Rodina MoskvaRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 RubinRussian Premier League
  • LH1-2 Spartak MoscowRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,2,3,1,4
Key players Brayan Gil 馃嚫馃嚮 70.5, Oleksandr Filin 67.2, Eldar 膯ivi膰 馃嚙馃嚘 61.4, Fahd Moufi 馃嚥馃嚘 60.9, Eduardo Anderson 馃嚨馃嚘 60.4
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 24 路 馃嚙馃嚘 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 2 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1 路 馃嚫馃嚮 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
4167th07-24 v CSKA Moscow: -2.008-01 v Dynamo: +2.008-08 v Krylia Sovetov: +3.008-16 v Spartak Moscow: -2.008-24 v Rubin: +0.008-30 v Rodina Moskva: +4.009-06 v Lokomotiv: -2.009-12 v Fakel: +0.0

Zenit (5th)

strong away

Saint Petersburg. Champions again: 11th title, reclaiming the crown from Krasnodar on a 15-game unbeaten run before 57k at the Gazprom Arena. Brazilian-heavy squad, biggest budget in Russia. With no UEFA football (ban), domestic dominance is the whole job.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 77.2 in league · 1st of 16
Seasons 2024: 2nd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 5th (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 LokomotivRussian Premier League
  • LH1-2 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
  • WA1-0 FakelRussian Premier League
  • LA0-2 Spartak MoscowRussian Premier League
  • WH3-0 DynamoRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,1,3,3
Key players Maksim Glushenkov 馃嚪馃嚭 81.0, Aleksandr Sobolev 馃嚪馃嚭 79.8, Nino 馃嚙馃嚪 75.2, Luiz Henrique 馃嚙馃嚪 72.4, Wendel 馃嚙馃嚪 71.1
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 17 路 馃嚙馃嚪 9 路 馃嚚馃嚧 4 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
155th07-25 v Akron: +6.008-02 v FC Orenburg: +4.008-09 v Rodina Moskva: -2.008-16 v Dynamo: +4.008-23 v Spartak Moscow: -3.008-29 v Fakel: +2.009-05 v CSKA Moscow: -2.009-12 v Lokomotiv: +2.0
league draws 29% · chaos 36orderly

Lokomotiv (13th) v Krylia Sovetov (10th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 53%
X 26%
2 21%
Prediction: Lokomotiv to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 61%↓0.9
Match preview

The model makes Lokomotiv narrow favourites at 53%, with Krylia Sovetov at 21% and the draw at 26%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. Watch Aleksei Batrakov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Dmitri Vorobyov for Lokomotiv, and Kirill Pechenin 馃嚙馃嚲 and Fernando Costanza 馃嚙馃嚪 for Krylia Sovetov.

Lokomotiv: Top-4 challenger powered by breakout star Aleksei Batrakov - the league's most valuable young player. · Krylia Sovetov: Samara stalwart; rough 25/26 lower-mid (0-6 home loss to Krasnodar the nadir).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Lokomotiv (13th)

Top-4 challenger powered by breakout star Aleksei Batrakov - the league's most valuable young player. RZD Arena. Railway-backed budget stability; best-placed Moscow club to pressure Zenit and Krasnodar.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 46.5 in league · 10th of 16
Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 13th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 ZenitRussian Premier League
  • WA1-0 BaltikaRussian Premier League
  • LH0-1 DynamoRussian Premier League
  • LA2-3 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 2,5,1,1,3
Key players C茅sar Montes 馃嚥馃嚱 71.7, Aleksandr Silyanov 67.2, Evgeni Morozov 馃嚪馃嚭 66.6, Lucas Fasson 馃嚙馃嚪 64.5, Nikolay Komlichenko 馃嚪馃嚭 61.8
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 22 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
101413th07-26 v Akhmat: +0.008-01 v Dinamo Makhachkala: -2.008-08 v Akron: +0.008-14 v FC Orenburg: +0.008-22 v CSKA Moscow: -2.008-29 v Dynamo: -2.009-06 v Baltika: +2.009-12 v Zenit: -2.0

Krylia Sovetov (10th)

Samara stalwart; rough 25/26 lower-mid (0-6 home loss to Krasnodar the nadir). Solidarnost Arena big and cold. Relegation-adjacent projection.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 45.9 in league · 11th of 16
Seasons 2024: 10th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 10th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 Rodina MoskvaRussian Premier League
  • DH2-2 FC KrasnodarRussian Premier League
  • DA3-3 AkhmatRussian Premier League
  • WA3-0 AkronRussian Premier League
  • LH1-4 Dinamo MakhachkalaRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 5,3,6,4,3
Key players Ivan Oleynikov 馃嚪馃嚭 68.6, Yuri Gorshkov 馃嚪馃嚭 68.3, Nikita Chernov 馃嚪馃嚭 67.3, Sergey Pesyakov 67.1, Maksim Vityugov 馃嚪馃嚭 58.6
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 18 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚪 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
61510th07-25 v Dynamo: +0.008-01 v CSKA Moscow: +0.008-08 v Baltika: -3.008-16 v Dinamo Makhachkala: -4.008-23 v Akron: +4.008-29 v Akhmat: +0.009-05 v FC Krasnodar: +0.009-11 v Rodina Moskva: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.