Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚪馃嚭 Russia First League

league draws 30% · chaos 57lively

Leningradets (14th) v Tekstilshchik (16th)

1 54%
X 27%
2 18%
Prediction: Leningradets to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 36%
Match preview

The model makes Leningradets narrow favourites at 54%, with Tekstilshchik at 18% and the draw at 27%. Tekstilshchik have lost 3 straight (3 scored, 10 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 36%).

Leningradets: Leningrad Oblast project club from little Roshchino, promoted from Division A for 26/27 after a previous relegation in 23/24. · Tekstilshchik: Ivanovo's textile-city club, promoted back from Division A for 26/27; long history of bouncing between tiers two and three.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Leningradets (14th)

Leningrad Oblast project club from little Roshchino, promoted from Division A for 26/27 after a previous relegation in 23/24. Regionally backed, young squad, tiny crowds. Survival-first.

Seasons 2023: 17th | 2026 so far: 14th (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-2 Ska-khabarovskRussia First League
  • LH0-1 KAMAZRussia First League
  • DH1-1 ChelyabinskRussia First League
  • DH0-0 Arsenal TulaRussia First League
  • LA1-2 VelesRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,0,2,1,5
Season pulse season 2026
121814th07-11 v FC UFA: -4.007-19 v Shinnik Yaroslavl: -3.007-26 v Ural: +0.008-01 v FC Sochi: +2.008-09 v Veles: -2.008-15 v Arsenal Tula: +0.008-23 v Chelyabinsk: +0.008-29 v KAMAZ: -2.009-05 v Ska-khabarovsk: +2.0

Tekstilshchik (16th)

Ivanovo's textile-city club, promoted back from Division A for 26/27; long history of bouncing between tiers two and three. Small budget, small crowds. Relegation-battle projection.

Seasons 2026 so far: 16th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-4 Torpedo MoskvaRussia First League
  • LH0-1 VelesRussia First League
  • LA0-2 UralRussia First League
  • WA1-0 KAMAZRussia First League
  • LH1-3 Nizhny NovgorodRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 4,1,2,1,5
Season pulse season 2026
121616th07-13 v Arsenal Tula: -2.007-19 v FC UFA: +0.007-25 v Spartak Kostroma: +0.008-01 v FK Neftekhimik: -2.008-08 v Enisey: +0.008-15 v Nizhny Novgorod: -3.008-19 v KAMAZ: +2.008-22 v Ural: -3.008-29 v Veles: -2.009-04 v Torpedo Moskva: -4.0
league draws 30% · chaos 57lively

FC UFA (7th) v Volga Ulyanovsk (12th)

1 48%
X 28%
2 23%
Prediction: FC UFA to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 42%
Match preview

The model makes FC UFA narrow favourites at 48%, with Volga Ulyanovsk at 23% and the draw at 28%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 42%). Watch Dilan Ortiz 馃嚨馃嚲 and Aleksandr Belenov for FC UFA.

FC UFA: Ex-RPL club (2014-22, Europa League 2018/19) in decline: 15th in 25/26, surviving by two points as Chernomorets went down. · Volga Ulyanovsk: Club from Lenin's birthplace on the Volga; survived their 25/26 second-tier return in 14th, two points clear of the drop, despite conceding 48.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FC UFA (7th)

Ex-RPL club (2014-22, Europa League 2018/19) in decline: 15th in 25/26, surviving by two points as Chernomorets went down. Neftyanik Stadium. Bashkortostan backing shrunk; relegation-battle projection until the attack improves.

Seasons 2024: 14th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 7th (16 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 VelesRussia First League
  • WA1-0 FK NeftekhimikRussia First League
  • WH3-1 EniseyRussia First League
  • DA1-1 Spartak KostromaRussia First League
  • LA0-3 UralRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 3,2,4,1,2
Key players Dilan Ortiz 馃嚨馃嚲, Aleksandr Belenov, Zelimkhan Yusupov
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 2
Season pulse season 2026
1117th07-11 v Leningradets: +4.007-19 v Tekstilshchik: +0.007-26 v Ska-khabarovsk: +2.008-03 v KAMAZ: +0.008-08 v Ural: -4.008-17 v Spartak Kostroma: +0.008-23 v Enisey: +3.008-28 v FK Neftekhimik: +2.009-05 v Veles: +0.0

Volga Ulyanovsk (12th)

Club from Lenin's birthplace on the Volga; survived their 25/26 second-tier return in 14th, two points clear of the drop, despite conceding 48. Small ground, hard winters. Relegation-battle projection again.

Seasons 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 12th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 Arsenal TulaRussia First League
  • DA2-2 Nizhny NovgorodRussia First League
  • LH1-3 Shinnik YaroslavlRussia First League
  • LA0-1 FC SochiRussia First League
  • WA2-1 KAMAZRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,1,4,4,3
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 2
Season pulse season 2026
111712th07-11 v Enisey: -2.007-19 v Torpedo Moskva: -3.007-25 v FK Neftekhimik: +3.008-02 v Chelyabinsk: -3.008-09 v KAMAZ: +2.008-16 v FC Sochi: -2.008-22 v Shinnik Yaroslavl: -3.008-30 v Nizhny Novgorod: +0.009-05 v Arsenal Tula: +4.0
league draws 30% · chaos 57lively

Torpedo Moskva (3rd) v Nizhny Novgorod (1st)

1 34%
X 29%
2 37%
Prediction: Nizhny Novgorod to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
Match preview

The model makes Nizhny Novgorod the marginal call at 37%, with Torpedo Moskva at 34% and the draw at 29%. Torpedo Moskva arrive on a 4-game winning run (14 scored, 3 conceded). Nizhny Novgorod have won 3 of their last five (12 scored, 8 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. Watch Aleksandr Yushin and Aleksey Kashtanov for Torpedo Moskva.

Nizhny Novgorod: Pari NN relegated from the RPL in 25/26 after years of struggle - at one point staging a 'home' game in Grozny before 232 fans.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Torpedo Moskva (3rd)

Moscow. Scandal-scarred Soviet giant (Streltsov legacy): stripped of 24/25 promotion over attempted match-fixing with leadership arrested, then drifted to 9th in 25/26 before crowds averaging just 1,200. On-pitch talent decent; off-pitch chaos defines them.

Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 3rd (19 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-1 TekstilshchikRussia First League
  • WA2-0 Ska-khabarovskRussia First League
  • WH3-0 Spartak KostromaRussia First League
  • WA4-0 ChelyabinskRussia First League
  • LH1-2 FC SochiRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 3,4,3,2,5
Key players Aleksandr Yushin, Aleksey Kashtanov, Daniil Utkin 馃嚪馃嚭
Season pulse season 2026
3103rd07-13 v Ural: +2.007-19 v Volga Ulyanovsk: +3.007-26 v Shinnik Yaroslavl: +0.008-02 v Arsenal Tula: -2.008-08 v FC Sochi: -2.008-15 v Chelyabinsk: +5.008-21 v Spartak Kostroma: +4.008-30 v Ska-khabarovsk: +3.009-04 v Tekstilshchik: +4.0

Nizhny Novgorod (1st)

strong away

Pari NN relegated from the RPL in 25/26 after years of struggle - at one point staging a 'home' game in Grozny before 232 fans. The 45k World Cup arena dwarfs the tier; post-relegation sales (Boselli to Krasnodar) gut the squad. Reset year.

Seasons 2026 so far: 1st (25 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 FC SochiRussia First League
  • DH2-2 Volga UlyanovskRussia First League
  • WH4-2 Ska-khabarovskRussia First League
  • LA2-3 VelesRussia First League
  • WA3-1 TekstilshchikRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 4,5,6,4,1
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 21 路 馃嚫馃嚠 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚡馃嚥 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
131st07-12 v Rotor Volgograd: +3.007-19 v KAMAZ: +2.007-25 v Chelyabinsk: +2.008-02 v Shinnik Yaroslavl: +4.008-08 v FK Neftekhimik: +5.008-15 v Tekstilshchik: +3.008-19 v Veles: -2.008-24 v Ska-khabarovsk: +3.008-30 v Volga Ulyanovsk: +0.009-05 v FC Sochi: +2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 57lively

Arsenal Tula (10th) v Ska-khabarovsk (18th)

1 49%
X 28%
2 23%
Prediction: Arsenal Tula to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 49%
Match preview

The model makes Arsenal Tula narrow favourites at 49%, with Ska-khabarovsk at 23% and the draw at 28%. Ska-khabarovsk have lost 3 straight (7 scored, 12 conceded). Watch Daniil Penchikov and Igor Gorbunov for Arsenal Tula, and Jacobo Alcalde and Batraz Gurtsiev 馃嚪馃嚭 for Ska-khabarovsk.

Arsenal Tula: Ex-RPL club (top flight 2014-21) now a settled second-tier side: 13th in 25/26 with a league-high 15 draws, after a 16-game winless run blighted 24/25. · Ska-khabarovsk: The extreme-travel club of world football: Khabarovsk in the Far East means 7h+ flights and massive time-zone shifts for every visitor - a genuine structural home edge.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Arsenal Tula (10th)

Ex-RPL club (top flight 2014-21) now a settled second-tier side: 13th in 25/26 with a league-high 15 draws, after a 16-game winless run blighted 24/25. Arsenal Stadium (19k) big for the level. Draw-heavy profile; mid-lower projection.

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 10th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 Volga UlyanovskRussia First League
  • DH2-2 UralRussia First League
  • LA0-2 VelesRussia First League
  • WH2-1 Rotor VolgogradRussia First League
  • DA0-0 LeningradetsRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 0,3,2,4,3
Key players Daniil Penchikov, Igor Gorbunov, Milos Brnovic
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 2 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚡 1 路 馃嚛馃嚧 1
Season pulse season 2026
51510th07-13 v Tekstilshchik: +2.007-19 v FK Neftekhimik: -2.007-26 v FC Sochi: -6.008-02 v Torpedo Moskva: +2.008-08 v Shinnik Yaroslavl: +0.008-15 v Leningradets: +0.008-20 v Rotor Volgograd: +2.008-24 v Veles: -3.008-29 v Ural: +0.009-05 v Volga Ulyanovsk: -4.0

Ska-khabarovsk (18th)

The extreme-travel club of world football: Khabarovsk in the Far East means 7h+ flights and massive time-zone shifts for every visitor - a genuine structural home edge. Brief RPL spell 2017/18; 12th in 25/26. Mid-table projection.

Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 18th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA2-3 LeningradetsRussia First League
  • LH0-2 Torpedo MoskvaRussia First League
  • LA2-4 Nizhny NovgorodRussia First League
  • WH2-0 VelesRussia First League
  • LH1-3 Spartak KostromaRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 4,2,6,2,5
Key players Jacobo Alcalde, Batraz Gurtsiev 馃嚪馃嚭, Kamran Aliev
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 5
Season pulse season 2026
151818th07-13 v Chelyabinsk: -3.007-20 v Rotor Volgograd: -2.007-26 v FC UFA: -2.008-02 v Ural: -4.008-09 v Spartak Kostroma: -3.008-15 v Veles: +3.008-24 v Nizhny Novgorod: -3.008-30 v Torpedo Moskva: -3.009-05 v Leningradets: -2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 57lively

Rotor Volgograd (11th) v Enisey (13th)

1 49%
X 28%
2 23%
Prediction: Rotor Volgograd to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 40%
Match preview

The model makes Rotor Volgograd narrow favourites at 49%, with Enisey at 23% and the draw at 28%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 40%). Watch Ilya Safronov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Aleksandr Khokhlachev 馃嚪馃嚭 for Rotor Volgograd, and Luka Ratkovic and Astemir Khashkulov for Enisey.

Rotor Volgograd: Sleeping giant: 90s UEFA pedigree (eliminated Man Utd in 1995) and the division's biggest crowds (21k at Volgograd Arena). · Enisey: Krasnoyarsk club - deep-Siberia location makes them one of the league's most punishing away trips (4h+ flights, big time-zone shift).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Rotor Volgograd (11th)

Sleeping giant: 90s UEFA pedigree (eliminated Man Utd in 1995) and the division's biggest crowds (21k at Volgograd Arena). 4th in 25/26 with the second-best defence, but lost the promotion playoff. Promotion contender again; pressure rising.

Seasons 2024: 9th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 11th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Shinnik YaroslavlRussia First League
  • LA0-1 Spartak KostromaRussia First League
  • LH0-1 FK NeftekhimikRussia First League
  • LA1-2 Arsenal TulaRussia First League
  • DH1-1 UralRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 2,3,1,1,4
Key players Ilya Safronov 馃嚪馃嚭, Aleksandr Khokhlachev 馃嚪馃嚭, Said Aliyev
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 2
Season pulse season 2026
51711th07-12 v Nizhny Novgorod: -3.007-20 v Ska-khabarovsk: +2.007-27 v KAMAZ: +3.008-03 v Veles: -2.008-09 v Chelyabinsk: +4.008-14 v Ural: +0.008-20 v Arsenal Tula: -2.008-24 v FK Neftekhimik: -2.008-31 v Spartak Kostroma: -2.009-05 v Shinnik Yaroslavl: +0.0

Enisey (13th)

Krasnoyarsk club - deep-Siberia location makes them one of the league's most punishing away trips (4h+ flights, big time-zone shift). Brief RPL cameo 2018/19; quietly strong 25/26, finishing 6th (49pts). Upper-mid projection.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 13th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 FK NeftekhimikRussia First League
  • DH0-0 Shinnik YaroslavlRussia First League
  • LA1-3 FC UFARussia First League
  • DH2-2 KAMAZRussia First League
  • DH0-0 TekstilshchikRussia First League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 0,4,4,0,2
Key players Luka Ratkovic, Astemir Khashkulov, Mikhail Oparin
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 6
Season pulse season 2026
21313th07-11 v Volga Ulyanovsk: +2.007-19 v Ural: -4.007-26 v Veles: +4.008-01 v Spartak Kostroma: +0.008-08 v Tekstilshchik: +0.008-15 v KAMAZ: +0.008-23 v FC UFA: -3.008-30 v Shinnik Yaroslavl: +0.009-05 v FK Neftekhimik: -3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.