Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

← all leagues

馃嚤馃嚬 A Lyga

league draws 26% · chaos 89volatile

Panev臈啪ys (7th) v Kauno 沤algiris (2nd)

1 18%
X 25%
2 57%
Prediction: Kauno 沤algiris to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Kauno 沤algiris clear favourites at 57%, with Panev臈啪ys at 18% and the draw at 25%. Panev臈啪ys arrive on a 3-game winning run (8 scored, 4 conceded). Kauno 沤algiris are unbeaten in five (13 scored, 2 conceded). Watch A. Benchaib 馃嚙馃嚜 and D. Georgijevi膰 馃嚪馃嚫 for Kauno 沤algiris.

Panev臈啪ys: Panev臈啪ys club, recent Lithuanian champions; small ground, artificial turf. · Kauno 沤algiris: Kaunas club (distinct from Vilnius 沤algiris), recent title challenger; artificial turf, cold calendar.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Panev臈啪ys (7th)

Panev臈啪ys club, recent Lithuanian champions; small ground, artificial turf. UECL entrant; provincial title winner.

Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 9th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 7th (35 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-1 Hegelmann LitauenA Lyga
  • WA3-0 BangaA Lyga
  • WH2-0 FK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga
  • LA0-2 Suduva MarijampoleA Lyga
  • LA0-1 艩iauliaiA Lyga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,2,2,3,4
Nationalities 馃嚤馃嚬 11 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃嚥馃嚤 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
397th06-29 v Suduva Marijampole: -2.007-04 v Hegelmann Litauen: +0.007-11 v Kauno 沤algiris: -4.008-03 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +0.008-10 v TransINVEST Vilnius: +3.008-17 v 艩iauliai: -2.008-23 v Suduva Marijampole: -3.008-30 v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: +3.009-03 v Banga: +4.009-07 v Hegelmann Litauen: +3.0

Kauno 沤algiris (2nd)

Kaunas club (distinct from Vilnius 沤algiris), recent title challenger; artificial turf, cold calendar. UCL entrant (champions route); resurgent.

Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 2nd (51 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH5-1 Suduva MarijampoleA Lyga
  • WH5-0 D啪iugas Tel拧iaiA Lyga
  • DA0-0 BangaA Lyga
  • WH1-0 Be艧ikta艧UEL
  • LA0-3 Be艧ikta艧UEL
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,2,0,5,6
Key players A. Benchaib 馃嚙馃嚜, D. Georgijevi膰 馃嚪馃嚫, R. Lekiatas 馃嚤馃嚬
Nationalities 馃嚤馃嚬 15 路 馃嚪馃嚫 3 路 馃嚞馃嚜 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
142nd06-17 v Banga: -2.006-20 v TransINVEST Vilnius: +2.007-03 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +0.007-11 v Panev臈啪ys: +4.007-18 v 艩iauliai: +5.008-08 v Hegelmann Litauen: +3.008-16 v TransINVEST Vilnius: +0.008-30 v Banga: +0.009-06 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +6.009-09 v Suduva Marijampole: +5.0
league draws 26% · chaos 89volatile

艩iauliai (9th) v Hegelmann Litauen (8th)

1 26%
X 26%
2 48%
Prediction: Hegelmann Litauen to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 58%
Match preview

The model makes Hegelmann Litauen narrow favourites at 48%, with 艩iauliai at 26% and the draw at 26%. 艩iauliai have lost 3 straight (5 scored, 10 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 58%. Watch L. Koji膰 馃嚪馃嚫 and Leonardo 馃嚙馃嚪 for Hegelmann Litauen.

艩iauliai: Northern-city club (FA Siauliai), struggling in 2026: 9th on 17 pts from 21 with 38 conceded, though its games are among the league's most open. · Hegelmann Litauen: Logistics-firm-backed Kaunas club (Hegelmann), a rapid modern riser; small ground, artificial turf.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

艩iauliai (9th)

Northern-city club (FA Siauliai), struggling in 2026: 9th on 17 pts from 21 with 38 conceded, though its games are among the league's most open. Artificial pitch, spring-autumn calendar, modest crowds.

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 9th (20 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 FK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga
  • LH1-2 Suduva MarijampoleA Lyga
  • LA0-3 TransINVEST VilniusA Lyga
  • WH1-0 Panev臈啪ysA Lyga
  • LH3-4 D啪iugas Tel拧iaiA Lyga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 7,1,3,3,1
Nationalities 馃嚤馃嚬 26 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚭馃嚘 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚜馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
699th06-29 v TransINVEST Vilnius: -3.007-05 v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: -4.007-18 v Kauno 沤algiris: -5.007-24 v Hegelmann Litauen: -3.008-03 v Banga: -3.008-09 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: -2.008-17 v Panev臈啪ys: +2.008-24 v TransINVEST Vilnius: -4.008-30 v Suduva Marijampole: -2.009-06 v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: -2.0

Hegelmann Litauen (8th)

Logistics-firm-backed Kaunas club (Hegelmann), a rapid modern riser; small ground, artificial turf. UECL entrant; upstart minnow.

Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 8th (25 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-3 Panev臈啪ysA Lyga
  • DA2-2 D啪iugas Tel拧iaiA Lyga
  • DH1-1 BangaA Lyga
  • LA0-2 Kauno 沤algirisA Lyga
  • LH1-2 TransINVEST VilniusA Lyga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,2,4,4
Key players L. Koji膰 馃嚪馃嚫, Leonardo 馃嚙馃嚪, Justas Pa拧tukas 馃嚤馃嚬
Nationalities 馃嚤馃嚬 13 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 馃嚪馃嚧 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
6108th06-28 v Banga: -3.007-04 v Panev臈啪ys: +0.007-20 v Suduva Marijampole: -5.007-24 v 艩iauliai: +3.007-27 v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: -2.008-02 v TransINVEST Vilnius: -2.008-08 v Kauno 沤algiris: -3.008-23 v Banga: +0.008-31 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +0.009-07 v Panev臈啪ys: -3.0
league draws 26% · chaos 89volatile

Suduva Marijampole (1st) v FK Zalgiris Vilnius (5th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 45%
X 26%
2 29%
Prediction: Suduva Marijampole to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 43%
Match preview

The model makes Suduva Marijampole narrow favourites at 45%, with FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 29% and the draw at 26%. Suduva Marijampole have won 4 of their last five (9 scored, 7 conceded). FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 7 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Faustas Steponavi膷ius 馃嚤馃嚬 and Steve Lawson 馃嚬馃嚞 for Suduva Marijampole, and L. Duman膷i膰 馃嚟馃嚪 and V. Radenovi膰 馃嚥馃嚜 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius.

Suduva Marijampole: Five-time champions including a run of three straight (2017-2019), back on top: leading the A Lyga on 36 pts from 21, built on a mean defence rather than goals. · FK Zalgiris Vilnius: Vilnius giant, serial Lithuanian champions and European regular; LFF Stadium, artificial-era, cold calendar.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Suduva Marijampole (1st)

Five-time champions including a run of three straight (2017-2019), back on top: leading the A Lyga on 36 pts from 21, built on a mean defence rather than goals. Marijampole's indoor-style arena, cold calendar.

Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 1st (54 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-5 Kauno 沤algirisA Lyga
  • WA2-1 TransINVEST VilniusA Lyga
  • WA2-1 艩iauliaiA Lyga
  • WH2-0 Panev臈啪ysA Lyga
  • WA2-0 D啪iugas Tel拧iaiA Lyga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 2,2,3,3,6
Key players Faustas Steponavi膷ius 馃嚤馃嚬, Steve Lawson 馃嚬馃嚞, Lucky Tom
Nationalities 馃嚤馃嚬 12 路 馃嚦馃嚞 3 路 馃嚘馃嚝 1 路 馃嚬馃嚞 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚭馃嚘 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
171st06-21 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +2.006-29 v Panev臈啪ys: +2.007-06 v TransINVEST Vilnius: +0.007-20 v Hegelmann Litauen: +5.008-09 v Banga: +4.008-17 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +3.008-23 v Panev臈啪ys: +3.008-30 v 艩iauliai: +2.009-06 v TransINVEST Vilnius: +2.009-09 v Kauno 沤algiris: -5.0

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (5th)

Vilnius giant, serial Lithuanian champions and European regular; LFF Stadium, artificial-era, cold calendar. UECL entrant; best European pedigree in Lithuania.

Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 1st | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 5th (44 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 艩iauliaiA Lyga
  • LA0-2 Panev臈啪ysA Lyga
  • WH2-0 D啪iugas Tel拧iaiA Lyga
  • LH2-3 BangaA Lyga
  • LA0-4 HNK Hajduk SplitUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 5,5,2,2,1
Key players L. Duman膷i膰 馃嚟馃嚪, V. Radenovi膰 馃嚥馃嚜, L. Antal 馃嚪馃嚧
Nationalities 馃嚤馃嚬 17 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚫馃嚜 3 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚪馃嚧 2 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
2105th06-16 v Panev臈啪ys: +4.006-20 v Banga: -4.006-28 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +0.007-05 v 艩iauliai: +4.007-19 v TransINVEST Vilnius: +3.007-27 v Hegelmann Litauen: +2.008-16 v Banga: -2.008-23 v D啪iugas Tel拧iai: +3.008-30 v Panev臈啪ys: -3.009-06 v 艩iauliai: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.