Daily Football Model

2026-10-03 · 9 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA Internationals Intel Intl Composite → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 League Two

league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Chesterfield (11th) v Tranmere (10th)

1 54%
X 26%
2 20%
Prediction: Chesterfield to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%
Match preview

The model makes Chesterfield narrow favourites at 54%, with Tranmere at 20% and the draw at 26%. Chesterfield also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Lee Bonis 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 and Liam Mandeville 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Chesterfield, and Charlie Whitaker 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Omari Patrick 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Tranmere.

Chesterfield: Derbyshire club (the Spireites), back in the EFL after dominating the National League; the SMH Group Stadium. · Tranmere: Merseyside club (Birkenhead, Rovers), Prenton Park; a historic lower-league side in the shadow of Liverpool and Everton.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Chesterfield (11th)

Derbyshire club (the Spireites), back in the EFL after dominating the National League; the SMH Group Stadium. Ambitious, well-backed, promotion-minded.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 70.8 in league · 3rd of 24
Seasons 2024: 7th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 11th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • WH2-0 YorkLeague Two
  • WA2-1 OldhamLeague Two
  • DH3-3 BarnetLeague Two
  • DH1-1 GillinghamLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 2,6,3,2,3
Key players Dilan Markanday 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 51.9, Louie Marsh 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 48.0, Kyle McFadzean 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 46.3, Ryan Boot 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 46.1, Liam Mandeville 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 44.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 21 路 馃嚠馃嚜 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 2 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
81711th08-15 v Fleetwood Town: -2.008-22 v Salford City: +2.008-29 v Rotherham: -2.009-01 v Gillingham: +0.009-05 v Barnet: +0.009-12 v Oldham: +2.009-19 v York: +3.009-26 v Cheltenham: -2.0

Tranmere (10th)

Merseyside club (Birkenhead, Rovers), Prenton Park; a historic lower-league side in the shadow of Liverpool and Everton. Loyal support, mid-to-lower table.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 49.0 in league · 13th of 24
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2024: 20th | 2025: 21st | 2026 so far: 10th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 WalsallLeague Two
  • DA0-0 Exeter CityLeague Two
  • LA0-2 GillinghamLeague Two
  • WH2-0 OldhamLeague Two
  • DH2-2 RotherhamLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 4,2,2,0,2
Key players Bobby Faulkner 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 41.6, Tom Ince 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 41.0, Will Vaulks 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 40.2, Joe Murphy 馃嚠馃嚜 38.6, Charlie Whitaker 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 38.6
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 28 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃嚤馃嚪 1 路 馃嚫馃嚢 1 路 馃嚢馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
41110th08-15 v Shrewsbury: +3.008-22 v Port Vale: +0.008-29 v Newport County: +0.009-01 v Rotherham: +0.009-05 v Oldham: +3.009-12 v Gillingham: -3.009-19 v Exeter City: +0.009-26 v Walsall: +0.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Accrington ST (19th) v Cheltenham (2nd)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 36%
X 27%
2 36%
Prediction: Accrington ST to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Accrington ST the marginal call at 36%, with Cheltenham at 36% and the draw at 27%. Cheltenham are unbeaten in five (11 scored, 7 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Shaun Whalley 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Isaac Sinclair 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Accrington ST, and Isaac Hutchinson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Luke Young 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Cheltenham.

Accrington ST: Accrington Stanley, a tiny East-Lancashire club famous for the name and a shoestring budget; the small Wham Stadium. · Cheltenham: Gloucestershire club (the Robins), a modest but well-run EFL side; the tight Completely-Suzuki Stadium.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Accrington ST (19th)

Accrington Stanley, a tiny East-Lancashire club famous for the name and a shoestring budget; the small Wham Stadium. Perennial overachiever punching above its resources, a lower-table survivor.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 37.5 in league · 20th of 24
Seasons 2023: 17th | 2024: 21st | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 19th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • DH0-0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • LA1-2 BarnetLeague Two
  • WH3-2 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • DH2-2 GrimsbyLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 4,5,3,0,2
Key players Devon Matthews 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 38.9, Charlie Caton 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 38.7, Josh Woods 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 38.1, Farrend Rawson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 37.9, Donald Love 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 37.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 26 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1
Season pulse season 2026
112319th08-15 v Colchester: +0.008-22 v Exeter City: -3.008-29 v Walsall: -2.009-01 v Grimsby: +0.009-05 v Crawley Town: +2.009-12 v Barnet: -2.009-19 v Newport County: +0.009-26 v Swindon Town: +0.0

Cheltenham (2nd)

Gloucestershire club (the Robins), a modest but well-run EFL side; the tight Completely-Suzuki Stadium. Lower-table battler that develops and sells.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 41.2 in league · 14th of 24
Seasons 2024: 15th | 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 2nd (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • DA1-1 ColchesterLeague Two
  • WA3-1 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • DH2-2 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • WH3-2 YorkLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 5,4,4,2,3
Key players Charlie McCann 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 50.8, Andreas Weimann 馃嚘馃嚬 43.3, George Miller 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 39.4, Robbie Cundy 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 39.1, Joe Day 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 38.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 24 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 4 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃嚤馃嚬 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1
Season pulse season 2026
2142nd08-15 v Rotherham: +2.008-22 v Swindon Town: -2.008-29 v Barnet: +0.009-01 v York: +2.009-05 v Grimsby: +0.009-12 v Crawley Town: +3.009-19 v Colchester: +0.009-26 v Chesterfield: +2.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Barnet (1st) v York (5th)

1 45%
X 27%
2 27%
Prediction: Barnet to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
Match preview

The model makes Barnet narrow favourites at 45%, with York at 27% and the draw at 27%. Barnet are unbeaten in five (11 scored, 8 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. York also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Ryan Glover 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Adam Senior 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Barnet, and O. Pearce 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and H. Boyes for York.

Barnet: North-London club (the Bees), recently back in the EFL after winning the National League; The Hive in Canons Park. · York: Historic North-Yorkshire club (the Minstermen), back in the EFL from non-league; the LNER Community Stadium.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Barnet (1st)

North-London club (the Bees), recently back in the EFL after winning the National League; The Hive in Canons Park. Well-run, promotion-minded, small crowds.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 61.6 in league · 6th of 24
Seasons 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 1st (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • WH2-1 Accrington STLeague Two
  • DA3-3 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • DA1-1 Exeter CityLeague Two
  • DH2-2 CheltenhamLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 4,2,6,3,4
Key players Charlie Lakin 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.5, Kabongo Tshimanga 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 47.3, Nikola Tavares 馃嚟馃嚪 45.0, Matthew Cox 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 42.4, Daniele Collinge 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 42.3
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 26 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚘馃嚞 1 路 馃嚫馃嚤 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
131st08-15 v Salford City: +3.008-22 v Shrewsbury: +3.008-29 v Cheltenham: +0.009-01 v Exeter City: +0.009-05 v Chesterfield: +0.009-12 v Accrington ST: +2.009-19 v Fleetwood Town: +3.0

York (5th)

Historic North-Yorkshire club (the Minstermen), back in the EFL from non-league; the LNER Community Stadium. Big fanbase for the level, ambitious.

Squad quality 68.8 in league · 4th of 24
Seasons 2026 so far: 5th (14 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 GillinghamLeague Two
  • LA0-2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • WH4-0 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • DA1-1 CreweLeague Two
  • LA2-3 CheltenhamLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 5,2,4,2,3
Key players Harry Boyes 57.2, Arthur Read 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 52.1, Ollie Pearce 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 50.6, Alex Newby 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 48.0, Zac Johnson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 42.9
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 15 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 1
Season pulse season 2026
3105th08-15 v Bristol Rovers: +2.008-22 v Rotherham: +0.008-29 v Exeter City: +2.009-01 v Cheltenham: -2.009-05 v Crewe: +0.009-12 v Swindon Town: +5.009-19 v Chesterfield: -3.009-26 v Gillingham: +4.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Crewe (8th) v Bristol Rovers (3rd)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 40%
X 27%
2 32%
Prediction: Crewe to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 50%
Match preview

The model makes Crewe the marginal call at 40%, with Bristol Rovers at 32% and the draw at 27%. Crewe are unbeaten in five (6 scored, 6 conceded). Bristol Rovers have won 3 of their last five (4 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Tommi O'Reilly 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Josh March 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Crewe, and Jack Sparkes 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Fabrizio Cavegn 馃嚚馃嚟 for Bristol Rovers.

Crewe: Cheshire club (the Railwaymen), famed for its academy and passing tradition; Gresty Road. · Bristol Rovers: Bristol's second club (the Gas), a big loyal following and a fierce derby with City; the Memorial Stadium.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Crewe (8th)

Cheshire club (the Railwaymen), famed for its academy and passing tradition; Gresty Road. Develops and sells talent, lower-to-mid table.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 52.2 in league · 11th of 24
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 8th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 RotherhamLeague Two
  • DH1-1 ShrewsburyLeague Two
  • DA1-1 ColchesterLeague Two
  • DH1-1 YorkLeague Two
  • DH2-2 WalsallLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 4,2,2,2,2
Key players Mickey Demetriou 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 56.7, Tom Booth 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 43.8, Jack Powell 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 40.8, Joshua Stephenson 40.1, Jordan Gibson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 38.9
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 25 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 4 路 馃嚠馃嚜 3 路 馃嚫馃嚢 1
Season pulse season 2026
298th08-15 v Crawley Town: +2.008-22 v Northampton: +2.008-29 v Port Vale: +0.009-01 v Walsall: +0.009-05 v York: +0.009-12 v Colchester: +0.009-19 v Shrewsbury: +0.009-26 v Rotherham: +0.0

Bristol Rovers (3rd)

Bristol's second club (the Gas), a big loyal following and a fierce derby with City; the Memorial Stadium. One of League Two's larger clubs, chasing a climb back up.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 56.5 in league · 10th of 24
Seasons 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 3rd (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 Exeter CityLeague Two
  • LA0-3 GillinghamLeague Two
  • LA0-2 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • WH1-0 RotherhamLeague Two
  • WH2-0 ColchesterLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,1,2,3,1
Key players Ellis Harrison 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 48.1, Tommy Leigh 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 45.0, Riley Harbottle 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 41.4, Kofi Balmer 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 40.0, Tom James 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 39.9
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 19 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 7 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 2 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃嚚馃嚲 1 路 馃嚫馃嚤 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
1153rd08-15 v York: -2.008-22 v Newport County: +3.008-29 v Crawley Town: +3.009-01 v Colchester: +3.009-05 v Rotherham: +2.009-12 v Grimsby: -3.009-19 v Gillingham: -4.009-26 v Exeter City: +2.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Exeter City (21st) v Rotherham (13th)

↓ Rotherham TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -29
1 47%
X 27%
2 26%
Prediction: Exeter City to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 35%
Match preview

The model makes Exeter City narrow favourites at 47%, with Rotherham at 26% and the draw at 27%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 35%). Watch J. Fitzwater 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and R. Cole 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Exeter City, and Sonny Aljofree 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Rotherham.

Exeter City: Devon club (the Grecians), Supporters' Trust-owned and a model of sustainable running; St James Park. · Rotherham: South-Yorkshire club (the Millers), recently a Championship side now fallen; the modern New York Stadium.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Exeter City (21st)

Devon club (the Grecians), Supporters' Trust-owned and a model of sustainable running; St James Park. Develops and sells youth. Long southwest trips for visitors.

Style Fast and clean from 2021
Squad quality 32.5 in league · 22nd of 24
Seasons 2026 so far: 21st (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • DH0-0 TranmereLeague Two
  • LA0-1 Port ValeLeague Two
  • DH0-0 WalsallLeague Two
  • DH1-1 BarnetLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 2,0,1,0,1
Key players Jack Fitzwater 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 47.9, Luca Woodhouse 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 41.0, Ed James 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 36.0, Taylor Perry 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 35.3, Jack Bycroft 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 34.5
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 8 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
112121st08-15 v Grimsby: -2.008-22 v Accrington ST: +3.008-29 v York: -2.009-01 v Barnet: +0.009-05 v Walsall: +0.009-12 v Port Vale: -2.009-19 v Tranmere: +0.009-26 v Bristol Rovers: -2.0

Rotherham (13th)

South-Yorkshire club (the Millers), recently a Championship side now fallen; the modern New York Stadium. One of the division's bigger clubs, chasing a swift return.

Squad quality 39.9 in league · 16th of 24
Seasons 2026 so far: 13th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 CreweLeague Two
  • WA1-0 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • DH3-3 Salford CityLeague Two
  • LA0-1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • DA2-2 TranmereLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 4,1,6,1,2
Key players Paul Mullin 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 47.1, Ossama Ashley 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 38.5, Ted Cann 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 37.1, Ewan Otoo 馃嚞馃嚟 36.8, Emmanuel Adegboyega 馃嚠馃嚜 36.3
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 16 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 1
Season pulse season 2026
131914th08-15 v Cheltenham: -2.008-22 v York: +0.008-29 v Chesterfield: +2.009-01 v Tranmere: +0.009-05 v Bristol Rovers: -2.009-12 v Salford City: +0.009-19 v Northampton: +2.009-26 v Crewe: +0.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Gillingham (9th) v Newport County (17th)

1 47%
X 27%
2 26%
Prediction: Gillingham to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%
Match preview

The model makes Gillingham narrow favourites at 47%, with Newport County at 26% and the draw at 27%. Gillingham have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Max Clark 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Remeao Hutton 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Gillingham, and Matthew Baker 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 and Bobby Kamwa 馃嚚馃嚥 for Newport County.

Gillingham: Kent's only EFL club, isolated in the county's football map; Priestfield. · Newport County: Welsh club in the English pyramid, Rodney Parade (a rugby groundshare with a notoriously heavy pitch); giant-killing cup pedigree.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Gillingham (9th)

Kent's only EFL club, isolated in the county's football map; Priestfield. Loyal support, lower-to-mid table, long trips for northern visitors.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 50.1 in league · 12th of 24
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 17th | 2025: 17th | 2026 so far: 9th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 YorkLeague Two
  • WH3-0 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • WH2-0 TranmereLeague Two
  • WA4-1 RochdaleLeague Two
  • DA1-1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,5,2,3,3
Key players James Brophy 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 51.6, Armani Little 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 41.9, Max Clark 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 39.1, Nick Freeman 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 38.1, Logan Dobbs 37.4
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 23 路 馃嚠馃嚜 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚡馃嚥 1 路 馃嚞馃嚛 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 1
Season pulse season 2026
4239th08-15 v Walsall: -4.008-22 v Fleetwood Town: +0.008-29 v Northampton: +0.009-01 v Chesterfield: +0.009-05 v Rochdale: +4.009-12 v Tranmere: +3.009-19 v Bristol Rovers: +4.009-26 v York: -4.0

Newport County (17th)

Welsh club in the English pyramid, Rodney Parade (a rugby groundshare with a notoriously heavy pitch); giant-killing cup pedigree. A real away-day quirk for visitors.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 39.8 in league · 17th of 24
Seasons 2023: 18th | 2024: 22nd | 2025: 20th | 2026 so far: 17th (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • DA0-0 Accrington STLeague Two
  • DH1-1 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • LA0-1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • LA1-2 Salford CityLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,2,0,3
Key players Christian Doidge 47.2, Jake Turner 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 39.8, Ben Lloyd 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 37.8, M. Jacob 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 37.6, Harrison Biggins 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 37.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 17 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 12 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚦馃嚳 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
12017th08-15 v Rochdale: +4.008-22 v Bristol Rovers: -3.008-29 v Tranmere: +0.009-01 v Salford City: -2.009-05 v Northampton: -2.009-12 v Fleetwood Town: +0.009-19 v Accrington ST: +0.009-26 v Grimsby: +2.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Grimsby (6th) v Shrewsbury (18th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: GRIMSBY
1 57%
X 25%
2 18%
Prediction: Grimsby to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Grimsby clear favourites at 57%, with Shrewsbury at 18% and the draw at 25%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Grimsby the stronger. Grimsby also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Kieran Green 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Jaze Kabia 馃嚠馃嚜 for Grimsby, and William Boyle 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Sam Clucas 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Shrewsbury.

Grimsby: Historic Lincolnshire club playing in Cleethorpes at the atmospheric coastal Blundell Park; famed giant-killers who knocked Manchester United out of the 2025 League Cup. · Shrewsbury: Shropshire club (the Shrews), recently relegated from League One; Montgomery Waters Meadow by the Severn.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Grimsby (6th)

Historic Lincolnshire club playing in Cleethorpes at the atmospheric coastal Blundell Park; famed giant-killers who knocked Manchester United out of the 2025 League Cup. Loyal support.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 76.0 in league · 2nd of 24
Seasons 2023: 21st | 2024: 9th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 6th (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • WH2-0 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • WH2-0 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • DA2-2 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • DA2-2 Accrington STLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 4,4,2,2,3
Key players Kieran Green 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 54.2, Reece Staunton 馃嚠馃嚜 53.4, Cameron McJannett 50.9, Andy Cook 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 47.7, Charles Vernam 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 46.8
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 21 路 馃嚠馃嚜 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 馃嚝馃嚧 1 路 馃嚢馃嚜 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
3126th08-15 v Exeter City: +2.008-22 v Walsall: +0.008-29 v Fleetwood Town: +0.009-01 v Accrington ST: +0.009-05 v Cheltenham: +0.009-12 v Bristol Rovers: +3.009-19 v Crawley Town: +3.009-26 v Newport County: -2.0

Shrewsbury (18th)

Shropshire club (the Shrews), recently relegated from League One; Montgomery Waters Meadow by the Severn. Lower-to-mid table, modest crowds.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 26.6 in league · 24th of 24
Seasons 2025: 19th | 2026 so far: 18th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 ColchesterLeague Two
  • DA1-1 CreweLeague Two
  • WH2-0 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • LA0-2 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • LA0-3 RochdaleLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,2,2,2,4
Key players Thomas Sang 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 40.5, Sam Stubbs 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 40.2, William Boyle 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 37.6, Sam Clucas 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 36.8, Isaac Fletcher 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 34.7
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 25 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃嚚馃嚛 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
182418th08-15 v Tranmere: -3.008-22 v Barnet: -3.008-29 v Salford City: +2.009-01 v Rochdale: -4.009-05 v Fleetwood Town: -3.009-12 v Northampton: +3.009-19 v Crewe: +0.009-26 v Colchester: +0.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Rochdale (15th) v Swindon Town (12th)

1 34%
X 27%
2 38%
Prediction: Swindon Town to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Swindon Town the marginal call at 38%, with Rochdale at 34% and the draw at 27%. Rochdale have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Kaiden Wilson and Nils Ramming 馃嚫馃嚜 for Rochdale, and Aaron Drinan 馃嚠馃嚜 and Ollie Palmer 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Swindon Town.

Rochdale: Greater-Manchester club (the Dale), Spotland; a long-time EFL member that dropped to non-league and is battling back. · Swindon Town: Wiltshire club, a former Premier League side (1993-94) long fallen; the County Ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Rochdale (15th)

Greater-Manchester club (the Dale), Spotland; a long-time EFL member that dropped to non-league and is battling back. Small crowds, modest budget.

Style Pass-dominant from 2022
Squad quality 36.1 in league · 21st of 24
Seasons 2026 so far: 15th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • WH2-0 OldhamLeague Two
  • DA0-0 WalsallLeague Two
  • LH1-4 GillinghamLeague Two
  • WH3-0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,5,0,2,3
Key players Dajaune Brown 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 42.9, Nils Ramming 馃嚫馃嚜 42.0, G. Middleton 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 40.0, Aden Flint 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 37.2, Daniel Moss 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 36.7
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 14 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
162416th08-15 v Newport County: -4.008-22 v Crawley Town: -2.008-29 v Colchester: -2.009-01 v Shrewsbury: +4.009-05 v Gillingham: -4.009-12 v Walsall: +0.009-19 v Oldham: +3.009-26 v Fleetwood Town: +2.0

Swindon Town (12th)

Wiltshire club, a former Premier League side (1993-94) long fallen; the County Ground. Big history and a loyal following, chasing a climb back up.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 56.7 in league · 9th of 24
Seasons 2023: 19th | 2024: 12th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 12th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Accrington STLeague Two
  • LA0-1 Salford CityLeague Two
  • LA0-4 YorkLeague Two
  • WH3-1 ColchesterLeague Two
  • WH3-1 Port ValeLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 4,4,4,1,2
Key players Connor Ripley 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 52.7, Ryan Tafazolli 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.5, Aaron Drinan 馃嚠馃嚜 47.1, Billy Kirkman 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 43.3, Fletcher Holman 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 40.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 28 路 馃嚠馃嚜 4 路 馃嚚馃嚘 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 1
Season pulse season 2026
21412th08-15 v Northampton: +0.008-22 v Cheltenham: +2.008-29 v Oldham: -4.009-01 v Port Vale: +3.009-05 v Colchester: +3.009-12 v York: -5.009-19 v Salford City: -2.009-26 v Accrington ST: +0.0
league draws 27% · chaos 53lively

Salford City (7th)🔥 v Fleetwood Town (14th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: SALFORD CITY
1 51%
X 26%
2 23%
Prediction: Salford City to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 45%
Match preview

The model makes Salford City narrow favourites at 51%, with Fleetwood Town at 23% and the draw at 26%. Salford City are unbeaten in five (11 scored, 5 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Salford City the stronger. Salford City also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Luke Garbutt 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Daniel Udoh 馃嚦馃嚞 for Salford City, and Mark Helm 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Ethan Ennis 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Fleetwood Town.

Salford City: Greater-Manchester club owned by the Class of '92 and Beckham, a heavily-backed riser from non-league; Moor Lane. · Fleetwood Town: Small Lancashire fishing-port club, a remarkable modern rise from non-league to the EFL under one owner; Highbury.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Salford City (7th)🔥

strong at home

Greater-Manchester club owned by the Class of '92 and Beckham, a heavily-backed riser from non-league; Moor Lane. Ambitious, well-funded, promotion-minded.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 78.4 in league · 1st of 24
Seasons 2023: 20th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 7th (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-1 OldhamLeague Two
  • WH1-0 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • DA3-3 RotherhamLeague Two
  • WH1-0 Port ValeLeague Two
  • WH2-1 Newport CountyLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,1,6,1,5
Key players Adebola Oluwo 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 57.7, Joe Powell 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 53.2, Will Aimson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 51.2, Jorge Grant 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.9, Luke Garbutt 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 48.6
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 22 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚫馃嚤 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚬馃嚳 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
7237th08-15 v Barnet: -3.008-22 v Chesterfield: -2.008-29 v Shrewsbury: -2.009-01 v Newport County: +2.009-05 v Port Vale: +2.009-12 v Rotherham: +0.009-19 v Swindon Town: +2.009-26 v Oldham: +4.0

Fleetwood Town (14th)

draw merchants

Small Lancashire fishing-port club, a remarkable modern rise from non-league to the EFL under one owner; Highbury. Small crowds, coastal setting.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 39.6 in league · 18th of 24
Seasons 2024: 14th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 14th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 RochdaleLeague Two
  • LA1-3 BarnetLeague Two
  • WH1-0 Sheffield UtdEFL Cup
  • DA1-1 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • WH2-0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,2,2,4,3
Key players Ronan Coughlan 馃嚠馃嚜 48.0, Mark Helm 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 45.9, Harrison Neal 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 39.8, Aaron Loupalo-Bi 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 39.6, Jake Thomas Batty 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 37.6
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 23 路 馃嚠馃嚜 4 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚞馃嚲 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
61313th08-15 v Chesterfield: +2.008-22 v Gillingham: +0.008-29 v Grimsby: +0.009-01 v Oldham: +0.009-05 v Shrewsbury: +3.009-12 v Newport County: +0.009-19 v Barnet: -3.009-26 v Rochdale: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.