Daily Football Model

2026-10-03 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

← all leagues

馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 League One

league draws 26% · chaos 32orderly

Burton Albion (7th) v Huddersfield (6th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: HUDDERSFIELD
1 34%
X 26%
2 40%
Prediction: Huddersfield to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Huddersfield the marginal call at 40%, with Burton Albion at 34% and the draw at 26%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Huddersfield the stronger. Huddersfield also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Jake Beesley 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Kyran Lofthouse 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Burton Albion, and Herbie Kane 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Huddersfield.

Huddersfield: 9th - underwhelming for one of the division's biggest budgets and grounds.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Burton Albion (7th)

Burton upon Trent. 17th - survived again at the Pirelli. Nordic analytics ownership (Nordby-era model). Smallest-crowd tier; relegation-battle projection.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 38.4 in league · 17th of 22
Seasons 2023: 20th | 2024: 20th | 2025: 17th | 2026 so far: 7th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 PlymouthLeague One
  • DH2-2 Mansfield TownLeague One
  • LA0-3 Oxford UnitedLeague One
  • DH2-2 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • WH4-1 AFC WimbledonLeague One
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 5,4,3,4,1
Key players Finn Delap 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 58.8, Jack Armer 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 49.7, George Evans 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.3, Corey Addai 馃嚡馃嚥 48.2, Harvey Araujo 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 44.0
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 20 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
4127th08-15 v Stevenage: +0.008-22 v Leicester: +1.808-29 v Notts County: -2.009-02 v AFC Wimbledon: +3.809-05 v Cambridge United: +0.009-12 v Oxford United: -4.009-19 v Mansfield Town: +0.009-26 v Plymouth: +2.0

Huddersfield (6th)

9th - underwhelming for one of the division's biggest budgets and grounds. Pressure to go up now; automatic-promotion contender if the squad clicks, playoff floor.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 72.3 in league · 2nd of 22
Seasons 2024: 10th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 6th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 BromleyLeague One
  • DA0-0 Mansfield TownLeague One
  • DH1-1 Notts CountyLeague One
  • WH3-1 Oxford UnitedLeague One
  • WA2-1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,4,2,0,3
Key players Cameron Humphreys 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 61.3, Murray Wallace 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 58.1, Archie Collins 57.7, Ryan Ledson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 54.9, Radinio Balker 馃嚦馃嚤 54.6
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 21 路 馃嚦馃嚤 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 3 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
166th08-15 v AFC Wimbledon: +4.008-22 v Milton Keynes Dons: +0.608-29 v Cambridge United: +2.009-01 v Oxford United: +3.009-05 v Notts County: +0.009-12 v Mansfield Town: +0.009-19 v Bromley: -2.0
league draws 26% · chaos 32orderly

Leyton Orient (11th) v Plymouth (4th)

1 30%
X 26%
2 44%
Prediction: Plymouth to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 60%
Match preview

The model makes Plymouth narrow favourites at 44%, with Leyton Orient at 30% and the draw at 26%. Plymouth have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 7 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 63%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 60%. Plymouth also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Dominic Ballard 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Ollie O'Neill 馃嚠馃嚜 for Leyton Orient, and Ryan Hardie 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 for Plymouth.

Plymouth: 8th - won on the final day but missed the playoffs on others' results.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Leyton Orient (11th)

London. 20th - survived by a nose at Brisbane Road. Well-run community club punching at its ceiling. Relegation-battle projection.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 47.9 in league · 14th of 22
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 20th | 2026 so far: 11th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 StevenageLeague One
  • LH2-3 WycombeLeague One
  • LH1-3 BradfordEFL Cup
  • DA1-1 LutonLeague One
  • WA5-0 BromleyLeague One
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 4,5,2,5,1
Key players Jaze Kabia 馃嚠馃嚜 59.3, William Forrester 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 53.9, Yusuf Akhamrich 馃嚥馃嚘 49.8, Nathan Baxter 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 48.1, Alexander Gilbert 馃嚠馃嚜 47.9
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 25 路 馃嚠馃嚜 4 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 3 路 馃嚢馃嚜 1 路 馃嚬馃嚦 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
61911th08-15 v Sheffield Wednesday: -2.008-22 v Wigan: +2.808-29 v Barnsley: -3.009-01 v Bromley: +6.009-05 v Luton: +0.009-12 v Wycombe: -2.009-19 v Stevenage: +2.0

Plymouth (4th)

strong away

8th - won on the final day but missed the playoffs on others' results. Home Park, longest away trips in the division for visitors. Playoff-race candidate again.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 56.6 in league · 7th of 22
Seasons 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 4th (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • WA4-2 BlackpoolLeague One
  • WH3-0 BarnsleyLeague One
  • WA3-2 DoncasterLeague One
  • LA0-2 LeicesterLeague One
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,5,3,6,1
Key players Harvey White 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 65.0, Alex Hartridge 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 56.4, Aribim Pepple 馃嚚馃嚘 55.9, Ronan Curtis 馃嚠馃嚜 52.9, Malachi Boateng 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 50.0
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 19 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 馃嚟馃嚭 1 路 馃嚳馃嚰 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
3234th08-15 v Stockport County: -3.008-22 v Wycombe: -0.608-29 v Bradford: +3.009-01 v Leicester: -3.009-05 v Doncaster: +2.009-12 v Barnsley: +4.009-19 v Blackpool: +3.009-26 v Burton Albion: -2.0
league draws 26% · chaos 32orderly

Reading (9th) v Bradford (1st)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 47%
X 26%
2 26%
Prediction: Reading to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 43%↓0.6
Match preview

The model makes Reading narrow favourites at 47%, with Bradford at 26% and the draw at 26%. Reading have won 3 of their last five (13 scored, 5 conceded). Bradford arrive on a 3-game winning run (4 scored, 4 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Lewis Wing 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Charlie Savage 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 for Reading, and Andy Cook 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Bradford.

Reading: 12th, the first stable season after the ownership crisis resolved. · Bradford: Resurgent: 4th with 77pts before playoff-semi elimination; Valley Parade crowds (20k+) are top-Championship scale for the tier.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Reading (9th)

12th, the first stable season after the ownership crisis resolved. SCL Stadium. Academy still elite; upper-half push plausible as normality returns.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 68.2 in league · 3rd of 22
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 9th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 WycombeLeague One
  • WH2-0 Notts CountyLeague One
  • LH1-2 BrentfordEFL Cup
  • LA1-2 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • WH3-1 BlackpoolLeague One
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 5,4,3,2,4
Key players Jack Marriott 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 64.5, Lewis Wing 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 60.7, Benn Ward 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 60.3, Paudie O鈥機onnor 馃嚠馃嚜 54.3, Joel Pereira 馃嚨馃嚬 53.6
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 23 路 馃嚠馃嚜 6 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚚馃嚘 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
8239th08-15 v Luton: -2.008-22 v AFC Wimbledon: +0.309-02 v Mansfield Town: +6.009-05 v Blackpool: +3.009-12 v Cambridge United: -2.009-19 v Notts County: +3.009-26 v Wycombe: +0.0

Bradford (1st)

Resurgent: 4th with 77pts before playoff-semi elimination; Valley Parade crowds (20k+) are top-Championship scale for the tier. Momentum club; automatic-promotion dark horse.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 50.3 in league · 13th of 22
Seasons 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 1st (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 LutonLeague One
  • WA1-0 Notts CountyLeague One
  • WA3-1 Leyton OrientEFL Cup
  • WH1-0 Mansfield TownLeague One
  • LH1-2 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 2,3,1,1,1
Key players Aden Baldwin 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 58.9, Matthew Pennington 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 57.1, Tyreik Wright 馃嚠馃嚜 52.3, Bobby Pointon 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 50.6, Ibou Touray 馃嚞馃嚥 45.7
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 19 路 馃嚠馃嚜 5 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚢馃嚜 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 1 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
1111st08-15 v Peterborough: +3.008-20 v Sheffield Wednesday: +1.608-29 v Plymouth: -3.009-01 v Cambridge United: -2.009-05 v Mansfield Town: +2.009-12 v Notts County: +2.009-19 v Luton: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.