Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 1 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇱🇻 Virslīga

league draws 23% · chaos 51lively

Grobiņa (8th) v FS Jelgava (7th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 33%
X 23%
2 44%
Prediction: FS Jelgava to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 37%
Match preview

The model makes FS Jelgava narrow favourites at 44%, with Grobiņa at 33% and the draw at 23%. Grobiņa have lost 4 of their last five (3 scored, 14 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 37%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Filip Hašek 🇨🇿 and Tomáš Rataj for FS Jelgava.

Grobiņa: Tiny Kurzeme town club near Liepaja, the smallest operation in the division; survived a relegation playoff after 2025. · FS Jelgava: Jelgava club with domestic cup pedigree, now a mid-table fixture: 7th on 25 pts from 23 in 2026 and defensively fragile (39 conceded).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Grobiņa (8th)

Tiny Kurzeme town club near Liepaja, the smallest operation in the division; survived a relegation playoff after 2025. 8th in 2026 with the league's weakest attack (15 goals in 23). Artificial pitch, cold calendar.

Seasons 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 8th (24 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 AudaVirslīga
  • WH1-0 BFC DaugavpilsVirslīga
  • LA1-3 FK LiepajaVirslīga
  • LA1-6 Rīgas FSVirslīga
  • LA0-4 RigaVirslīga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 4,7,4,1,1
Nationalities 🇱🇻 24 · 🇺🇦 2 · 🇮🇷 1 · 🇱🇹 1 · 🇫🇷 1 · 🇮🇹 1 · +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
398th06-25 v Auda: +0.006-29 v FS Jelgava: -3.007-05 v Tukums: +3.007-20 v Super Nova: -3.007-27 v Ogre United: +0.008-02 v Riga: -5.008-10 v Rīgas FS: -6.008-21 v FK Liepaja: -3.008-29 v BFC Daugavpils: +2.009-06 v Auda: -2.0

FS Jelgava (7th)

Jelgava club with domestic cup pedigree, now a mid-table fixture: 7th on 25 pts from 23 in 2026 and defensively fragile (39 conceded). Artificial pitch, spring-autumn calendar, crowds often in the hundreds.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 7th (31 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 Super NovaVirslīga
  • WA4-1 TukumsVirslīga
  • WA3-2 Ogre UnitedVirslīga
  • LH0-1 AudaVirslīga
  • LA1-2 BFC DaugavpilsVirslīga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,1,5,5,1
Key players Filip Hašek 🇨🇿, Tomáš Rataj, Gļebs Zaleiko
Nationalities 🇱🇻 26 · 🇨🇿 5 · 🇺🇦 2 · 🇨🇿 2 · 🇳🇬 2 · 🇯🇵 1 · +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
397th06-25 v Super Nova: +5.006-29 v Grobiņa: +3.007-03 v Riga: -4.007-20 v Rīgas FS: -2.007-26 v FK Liepaja: -3.008-01 v BFC Daugavpils: -2.008-09 v Auda: -2.008-22 v Ogre United: +2.008-29 v Tukums: +4.009-05 v Super Nova: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.