Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚠馃嚫 Besta deild

league draws 23% · chaos 23orderly

KR Reykjavik (3rd) v IA Akranes (5th)

1 60%
X 24%
2 16%
Prediction: KR Reykjavik to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 84%
Match preview

The model makes KR Reykjavik clear favourites at 60%, with IA Akranes at 16% and the draw at 24%. IA Akranes are unbeaten in five (11 scored, 5 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 78%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 84%. Watch Aron Sigur冒arson 馃嚠馃嚫 and Ei冒ur Gauti S忙bj枚rnsson 馃嚠馃嚫 for KR Reykjavik, and Mark煤s P谩ll Ellertsson 馃嚠馃嚫 and Gu冒mundur 脼贸rarinsson 馃嚠馃嚫 for IA Akranes.

KR Reykjavik: Iceland's record champions (27 titles) and oldest club. · IA Akranes: Small-town Akranes club with huge pedigree (18 titles, dominant in the 1950s and 1990s), now mid-table on 15 pts from 14.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

KR Reykjavik (3rd)

strong at home

Iceland's record champions (27 titles) and oldest club. Strong 2026: 3rd on 32 pts, and the league's most prolific attack (53 goals) led by top scorer Aron Sigur冒arson. Short summer season, small Reykjavik ground.

Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 3rd (44 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 IA AkranesBesta deild
  • DH1-1 Vikingur ReykjavikBesta deild
  • WA5-3 KA AkureyriBesta deild
  • DH3-3 BreidablikBesta deild
  • WA5-2 Fram ReykjavikBesta deild
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 7,6,8,2,4
Key players Aron Sigur冒arson 馃嚠馃嚫, Ei冒ur Gauti S忙bj枚rnsson 馃嚠馃嚫, Luke Rae 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚫 41 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1
Season pulse season 2026
132nd06-28 v Keflavik: -2.007-02 v Thor Akureyri: +0.007-12 v IBV Vestmannaeyjar: +4.007-19 v Stjarnan: +6.008-05 v FH hafnarfjordur: +0.008-10 v Fram Reykjavik: +4.008-16 v Breidablik: +0.008-23 v KA Akureyri: +3.009-01 v Vikingur Reykjavik: +0.009-06 v IA Akranes: -3.0

IA Akranes (5th)

Small-town Akranes club with huge pedigree (18 titles, dominant in the 1950s and 1990s), now mid-table on 15 pts from 14. Ex-international Gu冒mundur 脼贸rarinsson anchors it. Short summer calendar, modest ground.

Seasons 2024: 5th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 5th (30 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 KR ReykjavikBesta deild
  • DA2-2 Valur ReykjavikBesta deild
  • DH1-1 FH hafnarfjordurBesta deild
  • WA3-1 IBV VestmannaeyjarBesta deild
  • WH2-0 Thor AkureyriBesta deild
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,4,2,4,4
Key players Mark煤s P谩ll Ellertsson 馃嚠馃嚫, Gu冒mundur 脼贸rarinsson 馃嚠馃嚫, Viktor J贸nsson 馃嚠馃嚫
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚫 32 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃嚦馃嚧 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1
Season pulse season 2026
5106th07-04 v Breidablik: -2.007-12 v KA Akureyri: -2.007-20 v Keflavik: -4.007-26 v Stjarnan: +5.008-02 v Vikingur Reykjavik: +0.008-09 v Thor Akureyri: +3.008-16 v IBV Vestmannaeyjar: +3.008-23 v FH hafnarfjordur: +0.008-30 v Valur Reykjavik: +0.009-06 v KR Reykjavik: +3.0
league draws 23% · chaos 23orderly

FH hafnarfjordur (9th) v KA Akureyri (11th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 47%
X 25%
2 28%
Prediction: FH hafnarfjordur to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 66%
Match preview

The model makes FH hafnarfjordur narrow favourites at 47%, with KA Akureyri at 28% and the draw at 25%. Both teams to score looks likely at 66%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 66%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch T贸mas R贸bertsson 馃嚠馃嚫 and Adolf Da冒i Birgisson 馃嚠馃嚫 for FH hafnarfjordur, and Hallgr铆mur Steingr铆msson 馃嚠馃嚫 and 脕. Sigurgeirsson 馃嚠馃嚫 for KA Akureyri.

FH hafnarfjordur: Eight-time Icelandic champions and the dominant force of the 2000s, now in freefall: bottom-three on 11 pts from 14, two wins all season. · KA Akureyri: Northern-Iceland club (Akureyri), a rare European qualifier from the far north; long domestic travel, short season.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FH hafnarfjordur (9th)

Eight-time Icelandic champions and the dominant force of the 2000s, now in freefall: bottom-three on 11 pts from 14, two wins all season. Kaplakriki is the league's biggest ground (6,450). Short summer calendar.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 9th (21 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Thor AkureyriBesta deild
  • WH2-1 KeflavikBesta deild
  • DA1-1 IA AkranesBesta deild
  • LH2-4 Vikingur ReykjavikBesta deild
  • WA1-0 KA AkureyriBesta deild
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 1,6,2,3,1
Key players T贸mas R贸bertsson 馃嚠馃嚫, Adolf Da冒i Birgisson 馃嚠馃嚫, 脷lfur Bj枚rnsson 馃嚠馃嚫
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚫 30 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚫馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
5129th07-03 v Stjarnan: +0.007-12 v Valur Reykjavik: +3.007-20 v Breidablik: +0.007-26 v Fram Reykjavik: +0.008-05 v KR Reykjavik: +0.008-09 v KA Akureyri: +2.008-16 v Vikingur Reykjavik: -3.008-23 v IA Akranes: +0.008-30 v Keflavik: +2.009-06 v Thor Akureyri: -2.0

KA Akureyri (11th)

Northern-Iceland club (Akureyri), a rare European qualifier from the far north; long domestic travel, short season. Predicted qualifier; provincial side.

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 11th (20 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 BreidablikBesta deild
  • DA2-2 Fram ReykjavikBesta deild
  • LH3-5 KR ReykjavikBesta deild
  • DA4-4 Valur ReykjavikBesta deild
  • LH0-1 FH hafnarfjordurBesta deild
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,8,8,4,3
Key players Hallgr铆mur Steingr铆msson 馃嚠馃嚫, 脕. Sigurgeirsson 馃嚠馃嚫, H. Gu冒mundsson 馃嚠馃嚫
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚫 27 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 1 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
61212th07-02 v Vikingur Reykjavik: -2.007-12 v IA Akranes: +2.007-19 v IBV Vestmannaeyjar: +0.007-27 v Thor Akureyri: +0.008-05 v Keflavik: -4.008-09 v FH hafnarfjordur: -2.008-17 v Valur Reykjavik: +0.008-23 v KR Reykjavik: -3.008-30 v Fram Reykjavik: +0.009-06 v Breidablik: +2.0
league draws 23% · chaos 23orderly

Stjarnan (7th) v IBV Vestmannaeyjar (12th)

1 59%
X 24%
2 17%
Prediction: Stjarnan to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 65%
Match preview

The model makes Stjarnan clear favourites at 59%, with IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 17% and the draw at 24%. Stjarnan have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 7 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 64%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 65%. Watch B. War茅n 馃嚠馃嚫 and 脰. Eggertsson 馃嚠馃嚫 for Stjarnan, and R贸bert El铆s Hlynsson 馃嚠馃嚫 and Bjarki Bj枚rn Gunnarsson 馃嚠馃嚫 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar.

Stjarnan: Gar冒ab忙r club, 3rd in the 2025 Besta deild for UECL football; small ground, short Icelandic summer season. · IBV Vestmannaeyjar: Westman Islands club: visitors face a ferry or flight to a volcanic island, the league's sharpest travel quirk.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Stjarnan (7th)

Gar冒ab忙r club, 3rd in the 2025 Besta deild for UECL football; small ground, short Icelandic summer season. Attacking, well-run suburban side.

Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 4th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 7th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 IBV VestmannaeyjarBesta deild
  • WA2-0 BreidablikBesta deild
  • WH4-2 Thor AkureyriBesta deild
  • LA1-3 Fram ReykjavikBesta deild
  • WH1-0 KeflavikBesta deild
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 1,4,6,2,4
Key players B. War茅n 馃嚠馃嚫, 脰. Eggertsson 馃嚠馃嚫, J. Gunnarsson 馃嚠馃嚫
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚫 37 路 馃嚫馃嚤 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1
Season pulse season 2026
2108th06-28 v KA Akureyri: +3.007-03 v FH hafnarfjordur: +0.007-19 v KR Reykjavik: -6.007-26 v IA Akranes: -5.008-03 v Valur Reykjavik: +2.008-09 v Keflavik: +2.008-17 v Fram Reykjavik: -3.008-23 v Thor Akureyri: +3.008-31 v Breidablik: +3.009-06 v IBV Vestmannaeyjar: +0.0

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (12th)

Westman Islands club: visitors face a ferry or flight to a volcanic island, the league's sharpest travel quirk. Tiny wind-exposed H谩steinsv枚llur (2,300). Mid-table on 15 pts from 14, leaky at the back.

Seasons 2023: 11th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 12th (18 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 StjarnanBesta deild
  • LH0-1 Thor AkureyriBesta deild
  • LA0-1 KeflavikBesta deild
  • LH1-3 IA AkranesBesta deild
  • DA2-2 Vikingur ReykjavikBesta deild
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 4,4,1,1,4
Key players R贸bert El铆s Hlynsson 馃嚠馃嚫, Bjarki Bj枚rn Gunnarsson 馃嚠馃嚫, Alex Freyr Hilmarsson 馃嚠馃嚫
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚫 27 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
61211th07-04 v Valur Reykjavik: +2.007-12 v KR Reykjavik: -4.007-19 v KA Akureyri: +0.007-27 v Breidablik: -2.008-01 v Fram Reykjavik: -2.008-09 v Vikingur Reykjavik: +0.008-16 v IA Akranes: -3.008-23 v Keflavik: -2.008-29 v Thor Akureyri: -2.009-06 v Stjarnan: +0.0
league draws 23% · chaos 23orderly

Valur Reykjavik (8th) v Thor Akureyri (10th)

1 61%
X 24%
2 15%
Prediction: Valur Reykjavik to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 73%
Match preview

The model makes Valur Reykjavik clear favourites at 61%, with Thor Akureyri at 15% and the draw at 24%. Both teams to score looks likely at 64%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 73%. Watch P. Pedersen 馃嚛馃嚢 and J. J贸nsson 馃嚠馃嚫 for Valur Reykjavik.

Valur Reykjavik: Reykjav铆k giant, historic Icelandic champions; 2nd in 2025 for UECL football, with Patrick Pedersen the league's top scorer (18). · Thor Akureyri: Northern club from Akureyri, promoted for 2026 and struggling: bottom on 11 pts from 15 with 42 conceded.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Valur Reykjavik (8th)

Reykjav铆k giant, historic Icelandic champions; 2nd in 2025 for UECL football, with Patrick Pedersen the league's top scorer (18). Valsv枚llur. Big-city fanbase, deep squad.

Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 8th (27 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 KeflavikBesta deild
  • DH2-2 IA AkranesBesta deild
  • LA0-2 Vikingur ReykjavikBesta deild
  • DH4-4 KA AkureyriBesta deild
  • LA0-5 FC NordsjaellandUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 4,8,2,4,3
Key players P. Pedersen 馃嚛馃嚢, J. J贸nsson 馃嚠馃嚫, B. Heimisson 馃嚠馃嚫
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚫 36 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1
Season pulse season 2026
3127th06-28 v Thor Akureyri: +3.007-04 v IBV Vestmannaeyjar: -2.007-12 v FH hafnarfjordur: -3.007-18 v Fram Reykjavik: -2.008-03 v Stjarnan: -2.008-09 v Breidablik: +3.008-17 v KA Akureyri: +0.008-23 v Vikingur Reykjavik: -3.008-30 v IA Akranes: +0.009-05 v Keflavik: +2.0

Thor Akureyri (10th)

Northern club from Akureyri, promoted for 2026 and struggling: bottom on 11 pts from 15 with 42 conceded. Roughly 390km from Reykjavik, so visitors face the league's longest domestic haul. Short summer season.

Seasons 2026 so far: 10th (21 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 FH hafnarfjordurBesta deild
  • WA1-0 IBV VestmannaeyjarBesta deild
  • LA2-4 StjarnanBesta deild
  • LH0-2 KeflavikBesta deild
  • LA0-2 IA AkranesBesta deild
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNN match totals 2,2,6,1,1
Season pulse season 2026
31210th07-02 v KR Reykjavik: +0.007-12 v Fram Reykjavik: -6.007-18 v Vikingur Reykjavik: +2.007-27 v KA Akureyri: +0.008-04 v Breidablik: +2.008-09 v IA Akranes: -3.008-15 v Keflavik: -3.008-23 v Stjarnan: -3.008-29 v IBV Vestmannaeyjar: +2.009-06 v FH hafnarfjordur: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.