Daily Football Model

2026-10-03 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚚馃嚧 Primera A

league draws 30% · chaos 6orderly

Deportivo Cali (6th)🔥 v Alianza Valledupar (17th)

1 60%
X 28%
2 13%
Prediction: Deportivo Cali to win (solid) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 35%
vs performances: Deportivo Cali +0.01 (20g) · Alianza Valledupar -0.32 (20g)
Match preview

The model makes Deportivo Cali clear favourites at 60%, with Alianza Valledupar at 13% and the draw at 28%. Deportivo Cali arrive on a 4-game winning run (9 scored, 2 conceded). Alianza Valledupar have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 9 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 39%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 35%). Watch Steven Rodr铆guez 馃嚚馃嚧 and Johan Mart铆nez 馃嚚馃嚧 for Deportivo Cali, and Pedro Franco 馃嚚馃嚧 and Jhildrey Lasso 馃嚚馃嚧 for Alianza Valledupar.

Deportivo Cali: Cali giant, a big fanbase and the Cali derby; Palmaseca. · Alianza Valledupar: Valledupar club (northern, hot lowland), recently promoted; modest budget.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Deportivo Cali (6th)🔥

Cali giant, a big fanbase and the Cali derby; Palmaseca. Historic champions.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2026
Squad quality 62.7 in league · 4th of 20
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 15th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 6th (48 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 脕guilas DoradasPrimera A
  • WA1-0 Santa FePrimera A
  • WH3-0 CucutaPrimera A
  • WA2-1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • DA1-1 MillonariosPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 2,3,3,1,2
Key players Johan Mart铆nez 馃嚚馃嚧 58.2, Leyser Chaverra Renteria 57.2, Eduard Bello 馃嚮馃嚜 55.7, Jos茅 Caldera 馃嚚馃嚧 55.5, Pedro Gallese 馃嚨馃嚜 52.4
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 43 路 馃嚭馃嚲 4 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
5146th08-01 v Independiente Medellin: -2.208-09 v Deportivo Pasto: +3.308-23 v Internacional de Bogota: +0.308-27 v Atletico Nacional: -2.308-31 v Bucaramanga: +0.009-11 v Millonarios: +0.009-13 v Once Caldas: +2.009-19 v Cucuta: +4.009-23 v Santa Fe: +2.009-28 v 脕guilas Doradas: +3.0

Alianza Valledupar (17th)

Valledupar club (northern, hot lowland), recently promoted; modest budget.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 35.1 in league · 16th of 20
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 18th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 17th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 JaguaresPrimera A
  • LH1-4 Santa FePrimera A
  • WA2-1 ChicoPrimera A
  • WH1-0 JuniorPrimera A
  • LA0-3 America de CaliPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,1,3,5,3
Key players Juan Viveros 馃嚚馃嚧 45.0, Pedro Franco 馃嚚馃嚧 44.5, Jair Castillo 馃嚚馃嚧 43.9, Wiston Fern谩ndez 馃嚭馃嚲 43.3, Yilson Rosales 馃嚚馃嚧 41.8
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
162017th08-01 v Deportes Tolima: -1.908-09 v Bucaramanga: -2.408-22 v Deportivo Pereira: +0.008-26 v Cucuta: -1.808-30 v Atletico Nacional: -5.609-03 v America de Cali: -4.009-13 v Junior: +2.009-16 v Chico: +2.009-19 v Santa Fe: -4.009-27 v Jaguares: +2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 6orderly

脕guilas Doradas (13th) v Jaguares (19th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 57%
X 28%
2 15%
Prediction: 脕guilas Doradas to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%
vs performances: 脕guilas Doradas -0.09 (18g) · Jaguares -0.20 (21g)
Match preview

The model makes 脕guilas Doradas clear favourites at 57%, with Jaguares at 15% and the draw at 28%. Watch Jorge Rivaldo and Frank Lozano 馃嚚馃嚧 for 脕guilas Doradas, and Andr茅s Renter铆a 馃嚚馃嚧 and Carlos Henao 馃嚚馃嚧 for Jaguares.

脕guilas Doradas: Rionegro club near Medell铆n at ~2,100m, a well-run smaller side; altitude edge. · Jaguares: Monter铆a club (C贸rdoba), a hot lowland side; modest budget.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

脕guilas Doradas (13th)

Rionegro club near Medell铆n at ~2,100m, a well-run smaller side; altitude edge.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 46.6 in league · 12th of 20
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 14th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 13th (37 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • LA0-1 America de CaliPrimera A
  • DH2-2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • LA0-2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • DA2-2 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 4,2,4,1,2
Key players Jorge Soto 58.2, Andr茅s Ricaurte 馃嚚馃嚧 50.8, Diego Hern谩ndez 馃嚚馃嚧 50.0, Bryan Urue帽a 馃嚚馃嚧 47.9, Jhon Mel茅ndez 45.8
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 39 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
61413th07-26 v Santa Fe: +2.008-01 v Deportivo Pasto: +2.708-19 v Llaneros: +1.008-22 v Millonarios: +0.008-30 v Chico: +0.109-06 v Internacional de Bogota: +0.909-13 v Atletico Nacional: -3.009-18 v Deportivo Pereira: +0.009-24 v America de Cali: -2.009-28 v Deportivo Cali: -3.0

Jaguares (19th)

Monter铆a club (C贸rdoba), a hot lowland side; modest budget.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 41.9 in league · 15th of 20
Seasons 2023: 20th | 2024: 16th | 2026 so far: 19th (25 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • LA1-2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • DH2-2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • DA3-3 JuniorPrimera A
  • DH2-2 America de CaliPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,6,4,3,3
Key players Yairo Moreno 馃嚚馃嚧 50.3, Jerson Malag贸n 馃嚚馃嚧 46.8, Yan Mosquera 46.8, Andr茅s Renter铆a 馃嚚馃嚧 46.8, Rafael Bustamante 馃嚚馃嚧 45.4
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 27 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1
Season pulse season 2026
81919th07-25 v Deportivo Cali: -3.008-02 v Atletico Nacional: -3.908-05 v Internacional de Bogota: -3.008-09 v Once Caldas: -0.608-21 v Chico: +1.708-29 v America de Cali: -0.709-06 v Junior: +0.009-11 v Fortaleza FC: +0.009-22 v Independiente Medellin: -2.009-27 v Alianza Valledupar: -2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 6orderly
next day · Sunday

Deportes Tolima (3rd) v Chico (18th)

1 68%
X 25%
2 7%
Prediction: Deportes Tolima to win (strong) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 48%
vs performances: Deportes Tolima +0.08 (24g) · Chico -0.26 (22g)
Match preview

The model makes Deportes Tolima clear favourites at 68%, with Chico at 7% and the draw at 25%. Chico have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 6 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 38%. Watch Adri谩n Parra 馃嚚馃嚧 and Luis Sandoval 馃嚚馃嚧 for Deportes Tolima, and Jairo Molina 馃嚚馃嚧 and Juan Diaz for Chico.

Deportes Tolima: Ibagu茅 club, recent champions; Murillo Toro (~1,250m). · Chico: Tunja club (Boyac谩 Chic贸) at ~2,800m, a genuine altitude fortress; modest budget, the thin air its main weapon.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Deportes Tolima (3rd)

Ibagu茅 club, recent champions; Murillo Toro (~1,250m). Well-run.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 54.5 in league · 9th of 20
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 3rd (55 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • DH1-1 America de CaliPrimera A
  • LA0-1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • LA0-1 Santa FePrimera A
  • WA2-1 LlanerosPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,1,2,4
Key players Sebasti谩n Guzm谩n 馃嚚馃嚧 60.8, Anderson Angulo 馃嚚馃嚧 55.8, Luis Sandoval 馃嚚馃嚧 51.4, Luis S谩nchez 48.4, Jan 脕ngulo 48.4
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 36 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚫馃嚮 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
183rd08-01 v Alianza Valledupar: +1.908-04 v Independiente Medellin: -1.508-08 v Internacional de Bogota: +2.208-22 v Bucaramanga: +0.009-01 v Cucuta: +2.209-07 v Llaneros: +2.709-12 v Santa Fe: -2.009-16 v Once Caldas: -2.009-20 v America de Cali: +0.009-27 v Fortaleza FC: +0.0

Chico (18th)

Tunja club (Boyac谩 Chic贸) at ~2,800m, a genuine altitude fortress; modest budget, the thin air its main weapon.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 27.0 in league · 20th of 20
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 19th | 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 18th (28 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • LA0-3 MillonariosPrimera A
  • LH1-2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • WH2-1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • WH2-0 Once CaldasPrimera A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,3,3,3,3
Key players Jhonier Alom铆a 馃嚚馃嚧 47.0, Juan Diaz 41.9, Sander Navarro 馃嚚馃嚧 39.2, Delio Ram铆rez 馃嚚馃嚧 38.8, David Agudelo 馃嚚馃嚧 38.7
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚧 55 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚪 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
172018th08-02 v America de Cali: -6.008-08 v Santa Fe: -3.108-21 v Jaguares: -1.708-26 v Fortaleza FC: +0.508-30 v 脕guilas Doradas: -0.109-05 v Once Caldas: +3.009-12 v Independiente Medellin: +2.009-16 v Alianza Valledupar: -2.009-19 v Millonarios: -4.009-25 v Deportivo Pasto: +4.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.