Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚚馃嚦 Chinese Super League

league draws 26% · chaos 21orderly

Tianjin Teda (14th) v Shenyang Urban (13th)

1 56%
X 26%
2 18%
Prediction: Tianjin Teda to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 55%
vs performances: Tianjin Teda -0.19 (16g) · Shenyang Urban -0.21 (15g)
xG overlay · Shenyang Urban better on chances than on results by 0.43 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Tianjin Teda clear favourites at 56%, with Shenyang Urban at 18% and the draw at 26%. Shenyang Urban have lost 4 of their last five (6 scored, 14 conceded). Watch Alberto Quiles 馃嚜馃嚫 and Bruno Xadas 馃嚨馃嚬 for Tianjin Teda, and Guy Mbenza 馃嚚馃嚞 and Jeffinho 馃嚙馃嚪 for Shenyang Urban.

Tianjin Teda: Now Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: bottom of 2026 with just 5pts (3-6-6, heavy deduction evident) despite competitive performances - a 16-game unbeaten home streak in 23/24 feels distant. · Shenyang Urban: Now Liaoning Tieren: northeast club reviving Liaoning football tradition; promoted recently, 2026 lower-mid (5-2-8).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Tianjin Teda (14th)

Now Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: bottom of 2026 with just 5pts (3-6-6, heavy deduction evident) despite competitive performances - a 16-game unbeaten home streak in 23/24 feels distant. TEDA legacy name. Relegation favourites via sanction.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 36.0 in league · 14th of 16
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 14th (22 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 Hangzhou GreentownChinese Super League
  • DH1-1 Qingdao Youth IslandChinese Super League
  • DA0-0 Wuhan Three TownsChinese Super League
  • LH2-4 Beijing GuoanChinese Super League
  • LA1-2 Shandong LunengChinese Super League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,6,0,2,3
Key players Bruno Xadas 馃嚨馃嚬 65.4, Alberto Quiles 馃嚜馃嚫 50.0, Cristian Salvador 馃嚜馃嚫 49.9, Shengpan Ji 47.6, Fan Yang 47.1
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚦 26 路 馃嚜馃嚫 5 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚦 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚟馃嚢 1
Season pulse season 2026
71612th06-27 v Chongqing Tongliang Long: -1.707-04 v Sichuan Jiuniu: +4.407-18 v Shanghai Shenhua: +3.007-25 v Qingdao Jonoon: +3.008-01 v Yunnan Yukun: +2.008-09 v Shandong Luneng: -2.008-15 v Beijing Guoan: -3.008-22 v Wuhan Three Towns: +0.008-29 v Qingdao Youth Island: +0.009-06 v Hangzhou Greentown: +2.0

Shenyang Urban (13th)

Now Liaoning Tieren: northeast club reviving Liaoning football tradition; promoted recently, 2026 lower-mid (5-2-8). Harsh winters, passionate rustbelt support. Survival-first.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 25.9 in league · 15th of 16
Seasons 2026 so far: 13th (25 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-5 Yunnan YukunChinese Super League
  • LA1-2 Chengdu Better CityChinese Super League
  • DH4-4 Henan JianyeChinese Super League
  • LH1-2 Sichuan JiuniuChinese Super League
  • LA0-1 Dalian ZhixingChinese Super League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,3,8,3,5
Key players Felipe 馃嚙馃嚪 66.3, Jeffinho 馃嚙馃嚪 65.6, Takahiro Kunimoto 馃嚡馃嚨 61.1, Jiarun Gao 46.9, Rongze Han 42.0
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚦 18 路 馃嚚馃嚦 3 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚚馃嚞 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
61615th06-27 v Shandong Luneng: -6.007-04 v Chongqing Tongliang Long: +4.007-17 v Beijing Guoan: +0.007-25 v Qingdao Youth Island: -2.008-02 v Shanghai Shenhua: +3.008-08 v Dalian Zhixing: -2.008-15 v Sichuan Jiuniu: -2.008-23 v Henan Jianye: +0.008-29 v Chengdu Better City: -2.009-06 v Yunnan Yukun: -6.0
league draws 26% · chaos 21orderly

Wuhan Three Towns (15th) v Henan Jianye (12th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 36%
X 27%
2 37%
Prediction: Henan Jianye to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
vs performances: Wuhan Three Towns -0.64 (13g) · Henan Jianye -0.40 (16g)
xG overlay · Henan Jianye better on chances than on results by 0.45 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes Henan Jianye the marginal call at 37%, with Wuhan Three Towns at 36% and the draw at 27%. Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Tao Qianglong 馃嚚馃嚦 for Wuhan Three Towns, and Huang Zichang 馃嚚馃嚦 and Wang Shangyuan 馃嚚馃嚦 for Henan Jianye.

Wuhan Three Towns: 2022 champions in freefall: 15th (2-7-6) and in the relegation zone mid-2026. · Henan Jianye: Now Henan FC (Zhengzhou): famously loud Hanghai fanbase.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Wuhan Three Towns (15th)

draw merchants

2022 champions in freefall: 15th (2-7-6) and in the relegation zone mid-2026. Ownership/funding turmoil since the title. Talented remnants; survival scrap, one automatic relegation spot makes every point vital.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 51.8 in league · 9th of 16
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 15th (20 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 Qingdao Youth IslandChinese Super League
  • WA5-1 Qingdao JonoonChinese Super League
  • DH0-0 Tianjin TedaChinese Super League
  • LH2-3 SHANGHAI SIPGChinese Super League
  • DA1-1 Chengdu Better CityChinese Super League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,5,0,6,4
Key players Gustavo Sauer 馃嚙馃嚪 72.4, Kilian Bevis 馃嚝馃嚪 61.4, Jhonder C谩diz 馃嚮馃嚜 60.3, Ang Li 55.1, Mbouri Yamkam 馃嚚馃嚥 47.8
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚦 41 路 馃嚙馃嚪 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚞馃嚰 1 路 馃嚢馃嚪 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
81614th05-31 v Yunnan Yukun: +0.006-27 v Beijing Guoan: -3.107-04 v Dalian Zhixing: -2.207-18 v Sichuan Jiuniu: +3.007-25 v Chongqing Tongliang Long: +2.008-01 v Chengdu Better City: +0.008-14 v SHANGHAI SIPG: -2.008-22 v Tianjin Teda: +0.008-29 v Qingdao Jonoon: +5.009-05 v Qingdao Youth Island: +0.0

Henan Jianye (12th)

Now Henan FC (Zhengzhou): famously loud Hanghai fanbase. 2026: mid-table (6-3-6, low-scoring). Perennial 8th-12th grinders; hard to beat at home, blunt away.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 49.9 in league · 10th of 16
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 12th (26 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 Chengdu Better CityChinese Super League
  • DH1-1 Chongqing Tongliang LongChinese Super League
  • DA4-4 Shenyang UrbanChinese Super League
  • LA1-4 Shanghai ShenhuaChinese Super League
  • DH0-0 Qingdao Youth IslandChinese Super League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 0,5,8,2,0
Key players Bruno Naz谩rio 馃嚙馃嚪 72.5, Lucas Maia 馃嚙馃嚪 70.6, Iago Maidana 馃嚙馃嚪 58.9, Gustavo 馃嚙馃嚪 58.5, Shangyuan Wang 55.1
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚦 43 路 馃嚙馃嚪 5 路 馃嚟馃嚢 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚚馃嚦 1
Season pulse season 2026
31110th06-27 v SHANGHAI SIPG: -2.007-03 v Yunnan Yukun: -2.607-17 v Qingdao Jonoon: +5.007-26 v Shandong Luneng: +2.007-31 v Dalian Zhixing: +0.008-09 v Qingdao Youth Island: +0.008-15 v Shanghai Shenhua: -4.008-23 v Shenyang Urban: +0.008-29 v Chongqing Tongliang Long: +0.009-06 v Chengdu Better City: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.