Daily Football Model

2026-10-03 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚘馃嚪 Liga Profesional

league draws 30% · chaos 44orderly

Boca Juniors (7th) v Union Santa Fe (14th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: BOCA JUNIORS
1 56%
X 27%
2 17%
Prediction: Boca Juniors to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
vs performances: Boca Juniors +0.02 (7g) · Union Santa Fe -0.21 (10g)
Match preview

The model makes Boca Juniors clear favourites at 56%, with Union Santa Fe at 17% and the draw at 27%. Boca Juniors are unbeaten in five (9 scored, 4 conceded). Union Santa Fe have won 3 of their last five (12 scored, 8 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Boca Juniors the stronger. Watch Miguel Merentiel 馃嚭馃嚲 and Leandro Paredes 馃嚘馃嚪 for Boca Juniors, and Cristian Tarragona 馃嚘馃嚪 and Juli谩n Palacios 馃嚘馃嚪 for Union Santa Fe.

Boca Juniors: Buenos Aires giant, one of the world's biggest clubs with a vast fanbase; the iconic, intense Bombonera, the Supercl谩sico with River. · Union Santa Fe: Santa Fe club, a big provincial fanbase; the 15 de Abril.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Boca Juniors (7th)

Buenos Aires giant, one of the world's biggest clubs with a vast fanbase; the iconic, intense Bombonera, the Supercl谩sico with River. Deep squad, Libertadores pedigree.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 87.6 in league · 1st of 30
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 7th (47 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional
  • DA1-1 Sao PauloSudamericana
  • WH3-1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional
  • WH1-0 Sao PauloSudamericana
  • DA2-2 Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 2,1,4,4,2
Key players Leandro Paredes 馃嚘馃嚪 74.1, Lautaro Di Lollo 馃嚘馃嚪 70.0, Sebasti谩n Villa 馃嚚馃嚧 69.5, Leandro Lozano 馃嚭馃嚲 68.2, Lautaro Blanco 馃嚘馃嚪 63.1
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 45 路 馃嚚馃嚤 3 路 馃嚨馃嚲 3 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
2198th07-26 v Deportivo Riestra: -4.708-02 v Newells Old Boys: +0.508-05 v Estudiantes L.P.: +2.208-08 v Velez Sarsfield: +0.608-16 v Platense: +0.008-24 v Racing Club: -0.208-29 v Lanus: +2.109-05 v Gimnasia M.: +0.009-12 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: +3.009-20 v San Lorenzo: +4.0

Union Santa Fe (14th)

Santa Fe club, a big provincial fanbase; the 15 de Abril.

Style Territorial control from 2026
Squad quality 40.8 in league · 22nd of 30
Seasons 2023: 20th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 19th | 2026 so far: 14th (37 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 IndependienteLiga Profesional
  • LA1-2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional
  • WH3-2 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional
  • WH4-1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional
  • WA3-1 AldosiviLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,5,5,3,3
Key players Cristian Tarragona 馃嚘馃嚪 63.3, Ignacio Malcorra 58.0, Juli谩n Palacios 馃嚘馃嚪 56.4, Lucas Menossi 馃嚘馃嚪 55.3, Rafael Profini 馃嚘馃嚪 54.4
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 41 路 馃嚭馃嚲 4 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
52514th07-25 v Platense: +0.308-01 v Gimnasia M.: -3.108-06 v Lanus: +1.708-11 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: -1.508-15 v San Lorenzo: -2.508-21 v Aldosivi: +3.608-28 v Sarmiento Junin: +4.409-08 v Instituto Cordoba: +2.009-12 v Talleres Cordoba: -2.009-19 v Independiente: -1.5
league draws 30% · chaos 44orderly

Independ. Rivadavia (4th) v Gimnasia L.P. (8th)

1 48%
X 30%
2 22%
Prediction: Independ. Rivadavia to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 46%
vs performances: Independ. Rivadavia -0.71 (6g) · Gimnasia L.P. +0.14 (10g)
Match preview

The model makes Independ. Rivadavia narrow favourites at 48%, with Gimnasia L.P. at 22% and the draw at 30%. Independ. Rivadavia have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 7 conceded). Watch Mat铆as Fern谩ndez 馃嚘馃嚪 and Jos茅 Florent铆n 馃嚨馃嚲 for Independ. Rivadavia, and Alexis Steimbach 馃嚘馃嚪 and Marcelo Torres 馃嚘馃嚪 for Gimnasia L.P..

Independ. Rivadavia: Mendoza club (Independiente Rivadavia), a big provincial fanbase, recently promoted. · Gimnasia L.P.: La Plata club, a huge loyal fanbase and the fierce La Plata derby; the Bosque.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Independ. Rivadavia (4th)

Mendoza club (Independiente Rivadavia), a big provincial fanbase, recently promoted.

Style Long ball, physical from 2026
Squad quality 49.6 in league · 16th of 30
Seasons 2024: 11th | 2025: 17th | 2026 so far: 4th (51 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional
  • WH4-3 AldosiviLiga Profesional
  • LA1-3 River PlateLiga Profesional
  • WH3-1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional
  • DA0-0 IndependienteLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 0,4,4,7,1
Key players Alex Arce 馃嚨馃嚲 75.8, Jos茅 Florent铆n 馃嚨馃嚲 65.2, Luciano G贸mez 馃嚘馃嚪 57.9, Alejo Osella 馃嚘馃嚪 56.2, Sheyko Studer 馃嚘馃嚪 55.9
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 44 路 馃嚨馃嚲 7 路 馃嚚馃嚧 3 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1
Season pulse season 2026
162nd07-26 v Atletico Tucuman: +0.407-30 v Huracan: +2.508-03 v Sarmiento Junin: -1.508-08 v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: +2.908-15 v Belgrano Cordoba: -3.008-22 v Independiente: +0.008-31 v Racing Club: +3.009-06 v River Plate: -3.309-12 v Aldosivi: +2.009-21 v Barracas Central: +2.0

Gimnasia L.P. (8th)

La Plata club, a huge loyal fanbase and the fierce La Plata derby; the Bosque. Passionate support.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 58.0 in league · 9th of 30
Seasons 2023: 22nd | 2024: 19th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 8th (46 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 BanfieldLiga Profesional
  • DA1-1 Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional
  • WH2-1 TigreLiga Profesional
  • WA2-1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional
  • LH2-3 Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 5,3,3,2,4
Key players Nacho Fern谩ndez 70.3, Nicolas Schelotto 馃嚭馃嚫 65.7, Agust铆n Auzmendi 馃嚘馃嚪 63.2, Pedro Silva 馃嚘馃嚪 62.6, Alexis Steimbach 馃嚘馃嚪 61.0
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 44 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚚馃嚧 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1
Season pulse season 2026
1226th07-24 v Racing Club: -1.707-29 v River Plate: +2.908-02 v Aldosivi: +2.008-09 v Barracas Central: +3.408-15 v Estudiantes L.P.: -5.908-22 v Gimnasia M.: -2.208-29 v Rosario Central: +1.909-05 v Tigre: +2.009-13 v Argentinos JRS: +0.009-19 v Banfield: +1.6
league draws 30% · chaos 44orderly

Defensa Y Justicia (15th) v San Lorenzo (19th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 43%
X 30%
2 26%
Prediction: Defensa Y Justicia to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 28%
vs performances: Defensa Y Justicia +0.19 (8g) · San Lorenzo -0.13 (8g)
Match preview

The model makes Defensa Y Justicia narrow favourites at 43%, with San Lorenzo at 26% and the draw at 30%. Defensa Y Justicia have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 4 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 36%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 28%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Juan Manuel Guti茅rrez 馃嚭馃嚲 and Aaron Molinas 馃嚘馃嚪 for Defensa Y Justicia, and Alexis Cuello 馃嚘馃嚪 and Ezequiel Herrera 馃嚘馃嚪 for San Lorenzo.

Defensa Y Justicia: Florencio Varela club, 2020 Sudamericana champions; well-run, develops and sells. · San Lorenzo: Buenos Aires giant (Boedo), 2014 Libertadores champions with a huge fanbase; the Nuevo Gas贸metro.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Defensa Y Justicia (15th)

Florencio Varela club, 2020 Sudamericana champions; well-run, develops and sells.

Style Pass-dominant from 2026
Squad quality 62.3 in league · 5th of 30
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 21st | 2025: 20th | 2026 so far: 15th (37 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional
  • WH2-0 Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional
  • LA0-1 LanusLiga Profesional
  • WH1-0 PlatenseLiga Profesional
  • WA2-1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,1,2,4
Key players David Mart铆nez 馃嚨馃嚲 65.4, David Barbona 馃嚘馃嚪 65.3, Aaron Molinas 馃嚘馃嚪 65.3, C茅sar P茅rez 馃嚚馃嚤 64.2, Dami谩n Fern谩ndez 馃嚘馃嚪 57.8
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 53 路 馃嚭馃嚲 4 路 馃嚨馃嚲 3 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
32215th07-24 v Aldosivi: +0.407-29 v Deportivo Riestra: +2.308-01 v Estudiantes L.P.: -4.208-09 v Newells Old Boys: +2.508-17 v Velez Sarsfield: +0.208-23 v Belgrano Cordoba: +2.008-31 v Platense: +2.309-06 v Lanus: -2.009-11 v Gimnasia M.: +3.009-18 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: +0.2

San Lorenzo (19th)

Buenos Aires giant (Boedo), 2014 Libertadores champions with a huge fanbase; the Nuevo Gas贸metro.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 46.1 in league · 18th of 30
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 24th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 19th (34 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional
  • DA1-1 IndependienteLiga Profesional
  • WH1-0 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional
  • LA0-1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional
  • DA0-0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 0,1,1,2,2
Key players Danilo Arboleda 61.8, Gast贸n Hern谩ndez 馃嚘馃嚪 59.3, Matias Reali 馃嚘馃嚪 56.2, Jos茅 Devecchi 馃嚘馃嚪 56.0, Facundo Far铆as 馃嚘馃嚪 52.6
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 56 路 馃嚚馃嚧 4 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1
Season pulse season 2026
83020th07-26 v Lanus: -2.407-28 v Gimnasia M.: +2.108-04 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: -2.008-09 v Huracan: -3.308-15 v Union Santa Fe: +2.508-21 v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: -0.109-01 v Instituto Cordoba: -2.709-05 v Talleres Cordoba: +2.009-13 v Independiente: +0.009-20 v Boca Juniors: -4.0
league draws 30% · chaos 44orderly
next day · Sunday

Atletico Tucuman (24th) v Barracas Central (20th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 40%
X 30%
2 29%
Prediction: Atletico Tucuman to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 35%
vs performances: Atletico Tucuman +0.37 (8g) · Barracas Central -0.04 (8g)
Match preview

The model makes Atletico Tucuman the marginal call at 40%, with Barracas Central at 29% and the draw at 30%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 35%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Leandro D铆az 馃嚘馃嚪 and Renzo Tesuri 馃嚘馃嚪 for Atletico Tucuman, and Rodrigo Ins煤a 馃嚘馃嚪 and Tom谩s Porra 馃嚘馃嚪 for Barracas Central.

Barracas Central: Buenos Aires club, a modern top-flight riser (AFA-linked and controversial); small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Atletico Tucuman (24th)

San Miguel de Tucuman. Northern Tucum谩n club, a long haul for visiting sides; mid-table, well-organised.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 27.5 in league · 28th of 30
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 24th | 2026 so far: 24th (27 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 AldosiviLiga Profesional
  • LH1-2 River PlateLiga Profesional
  • WA2-1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional
  • DH0-0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional
  • DH0-0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 0,0,3,3,1
Key players Clever Ferreira 馃嚨馃嚲 72.5, Kevin Ort铆z 馃嚘馃嚪 52.9, Ramiro Ruiz Rodr铆guez 馃嚘馃嚪 52.6, Lautaro Agustin Godoy 馃嚘馃嚪 52.2, Luciano Vallejo 馃嚘馃嚝 51.8
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 47 路 馃嚭馃嚲 4 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚘馃嚝 1
Season pulse season 2026
202724th07-26 v Independ. Rivadavia: -0.407-31 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: +3.108-04 v Huracan: +0.208-08 v Sarmiento Junin: -2.308-17 v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: +2.008-22 v Instituto Cordoba: -0.208-30 v Belgrano Cordoba: +0.109-07 v Racing Club: +2.409-12 v River Plate: -2.009-21 v Aldosivi: -2.0

Barracas Central (20th)

Buenos Aires club, a modern top-flight riser (AFA-linked and controversial); small ground.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 33.4 in league · 25th of 30
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2024: 28th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 20th (33 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 Independ. RivadaviaLiga Profesional
  • DA1-1 BanfieldLiga Profesional
  • DH0-0 Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional
  • DA0-0 TigreLiga Profesional
  • LH1-2 PlatenseLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 3,0,0,2,1
Key players Marcelo Agust铆n Mi帽o 馃嚘馃嚪 67.5, Yonatthan Rak 馃嚭馃嚲 63.9, Tom谩s Porra 馃嚘馃嚪 55.4, Kevin Jappert 馃嚘馃嚪 52.9, Fernando Tobio 馃嚘馃嚪 49.5
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 48 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚘馃嚥 1 路 馃嚨馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
112519th07-25 v River Plate: +1.907-29 v Aldosivi: +2.008-02 v Deportivo Riestra: +2.208-09 v Gimnasia L.P.: -3.408-16 v Rosario Central: -1.408-23 v Platense: -2.509-01 v Tigre: +0.209-07 v Argentinos JRS: +0.009-14 v Banfield: +0.409-21 v Independ. Rivadavia: -2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 44orderly
next day · Sunday

Newells Old Boys (23rd) v Lanus (13th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 37%
X 30%
2 33%
Prediction: Newells Old Boys to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 32%
vs performances: Newells Old Boys +0.45 (8g) · Lanus -0.50 (9g)
Match preview

The model makes Newells Old Boys the marginal call at 37%, with Lanus at 33% and the draw at 30%. Newells Old Boys are unbeaten in five (5 scored, 3 conceded). Lanus arrive on a 3-game winning run (7 scored, 3 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 39%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 32%). Watch Facundo Guch and Luca Regiardo 馃嚘馃嚪 for Newells Old Boys, and Sasha Marcich 馃嚘馃嚪 and Ramiro Carrera 馃嚘馃嚪 for Lanus.

Newells Old Boys: Rosario giant, a huge fanbase and the fierce Rosario derby with Central; the Coloso. · Lanus: Buenos Aires club, 2013 Sudamericana champions; La Fortaleza, well-run.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Newells Old Boys (23rd)

Rosario giant, a huge fanbase and the fierce Rosario derby with Central; the Coloso. Passionate support.

Style Pass-dominant from 2026
Squad quality 54.7 in league · 14th of 30
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 25th | 2025: 27th | 2026 so far: 23rd (31 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 PlatenseLiga Profesional
  • DH1-1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional
  • DA1-1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional
  • DA0-0 Estudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional
  • WH2-1 BanfieldLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 3,0,2,2,1
Key players Josu茅 Reinatti 馃嚘馃嚪 70.0, Lucas Carrizo 65.5, Lautaro Giannetti 61.6, Bruno Cabrera 馃嚘馃嚪 55.8, Facundo Gauch 馃嚘馃嚪 53.5
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 60 路 馃嚨馃嚲 5 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
233023rd07-25 v Talleres Cordoba: +2.007-31 v Independiente: -2.208-02 v Boca Juniors: -0.508-09 v Defensa Y Justicia: -2.508-15 v Deportivo Riestra: +2.908-23 v Banfield: +2.008-31 v Estudiantes L.P.: -0.609-06 v Rosario Central: +0.109-11 v Velez Sarsfield: +0.009-20 v Platense: +2.3

Lanus (13th)

Buenos Aires club, 2013 Sudamericana champions; La Fortaleza, well-run.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 58.2 in league · 8th of 30
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 14th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 13th (40 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 Estudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional
  • WA3-0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional
  • WH1-0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional
  • LA0-1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional
  • DH1-1 Argentinos JRSLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,1,1,3,3
Key players Carlos Izquierdoz 馃嚘馃嚪 66.2, Tom谩s Guidara 馃嚘馃嚪 59.8, Felipe Pe帽a Biafore 59.6, Jos茅 Canale 馃嚨馃嚲 58.0, Marcelino Moreno 馃嚘馃嚪 56.0
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 57 路 馃嚨馃嚲 5 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1
Season pulse season 2026
22113th07-26 v San Lorenzo: +2.408-03 v Instituto Cordoba: -2.208-06 v Union Santa Fe: -1.708-12 v Talleres Cordoba: +4.808-17 v Independiente: -2.608-25 v Argentinos JRS: +0.508-29 v Boca Juniors: -2.109-06 v Defensa Y Justicia: +2.009-14 v Deportivo Riestra: +3.909-22 v Estudiantes L.P.: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.