Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚘馃嚪 Liga Profesional

league draws 31% · chaos 43orderly

Sarmiento Junin (16th) v Belgrano Cordoba (2nd)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: BELGRANO CORDOBA
1 36%
X 29%
2 35%
Prediction: Sarmiento Junin to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 32%
vs performances: Sarmiento Junin +0.27 (7g) · Belgrano Cordoba +0.61 (9g)
Match preview

The model makes Sarmiento Junin the marginal call at 36%, with Belgrano Cordoba at 35% and the draw at 29%. Sarmiento Junin have won 4 of their last five (9 scored, 5 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 40%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 32%). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Belgrano Cordoba the stronger. Watch Junior Marabel 馃嚨馃嚲 and Cristian Zabala 馃嚘馃嚪 for Sarmiento Junin, and Lucas Zelaray谩n 馃嚘馃嚥 and Adri谩n S谩nchez 馃嚘馃嚪 for Belgrano Cordoba.

Sarmiento Junin: Jun铆n club, a yo-yo top-flight side; modest budget. · Belgrano Cordoba: C贸rdoba club, a big provincial fanbase; the Gigante de Alberdi.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sarmiento Junin (16th)

Jun铆n club, a yo-yo top-flight side; modest budget.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 25.3 in league · 24th of 26
Seasons 2023: 19th | 2024: 26th | 2025: 23rd | 2026 so far: 16th (34 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoLiga Profesional
  • LA1-4 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional
  • WH2-0 Estudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional
  • WH2-0 HuracanLiga Profesional
  • WA2-1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,2,2,5,2
Key players Juli谩n Mavilla 馃嚘馃嚪 65.3, Mauricio Mart铆nez 馃嚘馃嚪 56.8, Junior Marabel 馃嚨馃嚲 54.9, Thyago Ayala 馃嚘馃嚪 53.8, Cristian Zabala 馃嚘馃嚪 49.1
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 56 路 馃嚨馃嚲 3 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1
Season pulse season 2026
132814th04-25 v Tigre: +2.005-03 v Belgrano Cordoba: -5.007-23 v Argentinos JRS: -2.007-28 v Banfield: -1.708-03 v Independ. Rivadavia: +1.508-08 v Atletico Tucuman: +2.308-16 v Huracan: +3.708-23 v Estudiantes L.P.: +3.008-28 v Union Santa Fe: -4.409-04 v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: +3.0

Belgrano Cordoba (2nd)

C贸rdoba club, a big provincial fanbase; the Gigante de Alberdi.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 60.2 in league · 8th of 26
Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 16th | 2025: 21st | 2026 so far: 2nd (48 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 HuracanLiga Profesional
  • DA0-0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional
  • LH1-2 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional
  • WH2-0 Independ. RivadaviaLiga Profesional
  • WA2-0 BanfieldLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNN match totals 2,2,3,0,2
Key players Lisandro L贸pez 馃嚘馃嚪 68.1, Thiago Cardozo 馃嚭馃嚲 60.3, Lucas Zelaray谩n 馃嚘馃嚥 58.6, Francisco Gonz谩lez Metilli 56.3, Leonardo Morales 馃嚘馃嚪 54.6
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 53 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 馃嚘馃嚥 1 路 馃嚨馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
1112nd05-12 v Union Santa Fe: +3.205-24 v River Plate: +2.107-23 v Rosario Central: +1.908-01 v Argentinos JRS: -2.308-06 v Tigre: -0.608-10 v Banfield: +2.908-15 v Independ. Rivadavia: +3.008-23 v Defensa Y Justicia: -2.008-30 v Atletico Tucuman: -0.109-04 v Huracan: +0.0
league draws 31% · chaos 43orderly

Tigre (19th) v Rosario Central (4th)

1 38%
X 30%
2 32%
Prediction: Tigre to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 25%
vs performances: Tigre +0.18 (7g) · Rosario Central +0.18 (10g)
Match preview

The model makes Tigre the marginal call at 38%, with Rosario Central at 32% and the draw at 30%. The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 34%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 25%). Watch Ignacio Russo 馃嚘馃嚪 and Alan Barrionuevo 馃嚘馃嚪 for Tigre, and 脕ngel Di Mar铆a 馃嚘馃嚪 and Vicente Pizarro 馃嚚馃嚤 for Rosario Central.

Tigre: Victoria club (Buenos Aires), a yo-yo side with cup pedigree. · Rosario Central: Rosario giant, a big fanbase and the Rosario derby; the Gigante de Arroyito.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Tigre (19th)

draw merchants

Victoria club (Buenos Aires), a yo-yo side with cup pedigree.

Style Long ball, physical from 2026
Squad quality 46.4 in league · 17th of 26
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2024: 18th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 19th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional
  • DH0-0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional
  • WH2-1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional
  • LA1-2 Atletico TorqueSudamericana
  • DA0-0 AldosiviLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,0,3,0,3
Key players Alan Barrionuevo 馃嚘馃嚪 67.6, Gonzalo Martinez 60.6, Federico 脕lvarez 馃嚘馃嚪 59.2, Nahuel Banegas 馃嚘馃嚪 52.8, Valentin Moreno 馃嚘馃嚪 48.2
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 51 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
12116th04-25 v Sarmiento Junin: -2.005-03 v Rosario Central: +0.007-25 v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: -2.008-01 v Racing Club: +3.108-06 v Belgrano Cordoba: +0.608-08 v River Plate: +2.108-15 v Aldosivi: -0.008-24 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: +2.509-01 v Barracas Central: -0.209-05 v Gimnasia L.P.: -2.0

Rosario Central (4th)

Rosario giant, a big fanbase and the Rosario derby; the Gigante de Arroyito.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 67.3 in league · 3rd of 26
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 20th | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 4th (46 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Newells Old BoysLiga Profesional
  • LH1-2 Gimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional
  • DA2-2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional
  • LA0-1 CorinthiansLibertadores
  • WA1-0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,1,4,3,2
Key players 脕ngel Di Mar铆a 馃嚘馃嚪 71.8, Gast贸n 脕vila 馃嚘馃嚪 70.7, Franco Ibarra 馃嚘馃嚪 68.2, Axel Werner 馃嚘馃嚪 61.6, Jaminton Campaz 馃嚚馃嚧 59.3
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 45 路 馃嚨馃嚲 4 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
4296th05-10 v Independiente: +3.505-16 v River Plate: -3.007-23 v Belgrano Cordoba: -1.907-29 v Racing Club: +0.208-02 v River Plate: +1.208-07 v Aldosivi: +2.808-16 v Barracas Central: +1.408-25 v Talleres Cordoba: +0.508-29 v Gimnasia L.P.: -1.909-06 v Newells Old Boys: -0.1
league draws 31% · chaos 43orderly
next day · Monday

Argentinos JRS (1st) v Gimnasia L.P. (7th)

1 51%
X 29%
2 20%
Prediction: Argentinos JRS to win (solid) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 38%
vs performances: Argentinos JRS +0.76 (8g) · Gimnasia L.P. +0.36 (9g)
Match preview

The model makes Argentinos JRS narrow favourites at 51%, with Gimnasia L.P. at 20% and the draw at 29%. Gimnasia L.P. have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 9 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 38%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 38%). Watch Francisco 脕lvarez 馃嚘馃嚪 and Alan Lescano 馃嚘馃嚪 for Argentinos JRS, and Alexis Steimbach 馃嚘馃嚪 and Marcelo Torres 馃嚘馃嚪 for Gimnasia L.P..

Argentinos JRS: Buenos Aires club (La Paternal), a famed academy that produced Maradona and Riquelme; the Diego Maradona stadium. · Gimnasia L.P.: La Plata club, a huge loyal fanbase and the fierce La Plata derby; the Bosque.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Argentinos JRS (1st)

strong at home

Buenos Aires club (La Paternal), a famed academy that produced Maradona and Riquelme; the Diego Maradona stadium. Develops and sells.

Style Punished on few chances from 2026
Squad quality 62.8 in league · 4th of 26
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 23rd | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 1st (53 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional
  • WH2-1 AldosiviLiga Profesional
  • DA1-1 LanusLiga Profesional
  • LA0-2 River PlateLiga Profesional
  • WH2-1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,2,2,3,0
Key players Francisco 脕lvarez 馃嚘馃嚪 69.3, Alan Lescano 馃嚘馃嚪 58.7, Hern谩n L贸pez Mu帽oz 57.5, Sebasti谩n Prieto 馃嚘馃嚪 57.0, Nicolas Oroz 馃嚘馃嚪 55.1
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 63 路 馃嚭馃嚲 4 路 馃嚚馃嚤 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
1221st05-03 v Gimnasia L.P.: -3.005-10 v Lanus: +3.107-23 v Sarmiento Junin: +2.007-29 v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: +4.908-01 v Belgrano Cordoba: +2.308-09 v Racing Club: +2.908-16 v River Plate: -3.408-25 v Lanus: -0.508-30 v Aldosivi: +2.509-07 v Barracas Central: +0.0

Gimnasia L.P. (7th)

strong away

La Plata club, a huge loyal fanbase and the fierce La Plata derby; the Bosque. Passionate support.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 52.4 in league · 12th of 26
Seasons 2023: 22nd | 2024: 19th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 7th (44 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 TigreLiga Profesional
  • WA2-1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional
  • LH2-3 Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional
  • LA0-4 Estudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional
  • WH2-0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,4,5,3,3
Key players Nacho Fern谩ndez 64.2, Nicolas Schelotto 馃嚭馃嚫 62.4, Alexis Steimbach 馃嚘馃嚪 59.9, Agust铆n Colazo 馃嚘馃嚪 53.3, Pedro Silva 馃嚘馃嚪 52.5
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 44 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚚馃嚧 3 路 馃嚮馃嚜 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1
Season pulse season 2026
1224th05-11 v Velez Sarsfield: +1.805-14 v River Plate: -3.407-24 v Racing Club: -1.707-29 v River Plate: +2.908-02 v Aldosivi: +2.008-09 v Barracas Central: +3.408-15 v Estudiantes L.P.: -5.908-22 v Gimnasia M.: -2.208-29 v Rosario Central: +1.909-05 v Tigre: +2.0
league draws 31% · chaos 43orderly
next day · Monday

Independiente (11th) v San Lorenzo (17th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 47%
X 30%
2 23%
Prediction: Independiente to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 25%
vs performances: Independiente +0.22 (8g) · San Lorenzo -0.11 (7g)
Match preview

The model makes Independiente narrow favourites at 47%, with San Lorenzo at 23% and the draw at 30%. The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 32%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 25%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Gabriel 脕valos 馃嚨馃嚲 and Mat铆as Abaldo 馃嚭馃嚲 for Independiente, and Alexis Cuello 馃嚘馃嚪 and Ezequiel Herrera 馃嚘馃嚪 for San Lorenzo.

Independiente: Avellaneda giant, record seven Libertadores titles and a huge fanbase; the fierce Avellaneda derby with Racing. · San Lorenzo: Buenos Aires giant (Boedo), 2014 Libertadores champions with a huge fanbase; the Nuevo Gas贸metro.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Independiente (11th)

Avellaneda giant, record seven Libertadores titles and a huge fanbase; the fierce Avellaneda derby with Racing. Fallen from its peak, big support.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 58.3 in league · 10th of 26
Seasons 2023: 24th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 11th (37 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional
  • LH0-3 Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional
  • DH0-0 Independ. RivadaviaLiga Profesional
  • WA3-1 LanusLiga Profesional
  • LH0-1 PlatenseLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 1,4,0,3,1
Key players Santiago Montiel 馃嚘馃嚪 66.9, Gabriel 脕valos 馃嚨馃嚲 62.0, Juan Fedorco 馃嚘馃嚪 60.8, Lautaro Mill谩n 馃嚘馃嚪 58.0, Iv谩n Marcone 馃嚘馃嚪 52.4
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 41 路 馃嚭馃嚲 5 路 馃嚚馃嚤 4 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
41813th05-02 v San Lorenzo: +2.005-10 v Rosario Central: -3.507-26 v Estudiantes L.P.: +2.707-31 v Newells Old Boys: +2.208-03 v Velez Sarsfield: -2.208-09 v Platense: -1.908-17 v Lanus: +2.608-22 v Independ. Rivadavia: +0.008-30 v Gimnasia M.: -3.809-06 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: +2.2

San Lorenzo (17th)

Buenos Aires giant (Boedo), 2014 Libertadores champions with a huge fanbase; the Nuevo Gas贸metro.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 49.7 in league · 14th of 26
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 24th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 17th (33 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional
  • LA0-1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional
  • DA0-0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoLiga Profesional
  • WH1-0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional
  • LH0-2 HuracanLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 2,1,0,1,1
Key players Danilo Arboleda 60.4, Gast贸n Hern谩ndez 馃嚘馃嚪 59.3, Matias Reali 馃嚘馃嚪 55.1, Mathias de Ritis 馃嚭馃嚲 52.5, Manuel Insaurralde 馃嚘馃嚪 51.0
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 56 路 馃嚚馃嚧 4 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1
Season pulse season 2026
73018th04-25 v Platense: +2.005-02 v Independiente: -2.007-26 v Lanus: -2.407-28 v Gimnasia M.: +2.108-04 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: -2.008-09 v Huracan: -3.308-15 v Union Santa Fe: +2.508-21 v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: -0.109-01 v Instituto Cordoba: -2.709-05 v Talleres Cordoba: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.