Daily Football Model

2026-09-15 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃審 AFC Cup

league draws 19% · chaos 18orderly

Arkadag v Muharraq

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 42%
X 25%
2 34%
Prediction: Arkadag to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 41%
Match preview

The model makes Arkadag the marginal call at 42%, with Muharraq at 34% and the draw at 25%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 41%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Yazgylych Gurbanov 馃嚬馃嚥 and Ybra媒ym M盲mmedow for Arkadag.

Arkadag: State project founded in 2023 and named after the ex-president's title, sweeping Turkmen football unbeaten from its debut; the new Arkadag city. · Muharraq: Bahrain's most successful club with historic Asian pedigree; extreme heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Arkadag

State project founded in 2023 and named after the ex-president's title, sweeping Turkmen football unbeaten from its debut; the new Arkadag city. Utterly dominant domestically, an unusual case.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 GoaACL Two
  • LA0-1 Al-NassrACL Two
  • LH0-1 Al-NassrACL Two
  • WH1-0 KhalidiyaACL Two
  • DA1-1 AndijanACL Two
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,1,1,1,3
Key players Yazgylych Gurbanov 馃嚬馃嚥 63.9, Ybra媒ym M盲mmedow 58.8, Mekan Saparov 馃嚬馃嚥 56.8, Mirza Beknazarov 馃嚬馃嚥 54.7, Rasul Charyyev 馃嚬馃嚥 54.5
Nationalities 馃嚬馃嚥 25

Muharraq

Bahrain's most successful club with historic Asian pedigree; extreme heat. The kingdom's benchmark side.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 Esteghlal FCACL Two
  • DA2-2 Al-Wasl FCACL Two
  • LA1-2 Al WihdatACL Two
  • LH0-1 Al-Wasl FCACL Two
  • WA1-0 Esteghlal FCACL Two
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 1,1,3,4,3
Key players Elliot Sim玫es 馃嚘馃嚧 60.3, Juninho 馃嚙馃嚪 57.0, Arthur Rezende 馃嚙馃嚪 49.5, Abdulwahab Hanan 46.6, Mohamed Yusuf 馃嚙馃嚞 44.1
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚟 10 路 馃嚙馃嚪 4 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚘馃嚧 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
league draws 19% · chaos 18orderly

Gol Gohar v Al-Jazira

1 64%
X 22%
2 14%
Prediction: Gol Gohar to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%
Match preview

The model makes Gol Gohar clear favourites at 64%, with Al-Jazira at 14% and the draw at 22%. Al-Jazira have lost 3 straight (4 scored, 9 conceded).

Al-Jazira: Abu Dhabi club, UAE champions and 2017 Club World Cup semi-finalists; Mohammed bin Zayed Stadium, extreme heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Gol Gohar

Al-Jazira

Abu Dhabi club, UAE champions and 2017 Club World Cup semi-finalists; Mohammed bin Zayed Stadium, extreme heat. Well-funded, foreign-heavy.

Style Pass-dominant from 2024
Squad quality 57.6 all Europe · UAE Pro League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Al NasrUAE Pro League
  • WA3-1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiUAE Pro League
  • WH3-0 AjmanUAE Pro League
  • WA2-0 Sharjah FCUAE Pro League
  • WA2-0 Hatta SCUAE Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,0,5,2,5
Key players Malcom 69.0, Marcus Meloni 65.7, Willyan Rocha 60.7, Mamadou Coulibaly 57.2, Milson 55.8
Season pulse season 2026
161st08-16 v Hatta SC: +3.008-23 v Sharjah FC: +3.008-29 v Ajman: +4.009-05 v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: +3.009-10 v Al Nasr: +0.0