Daily Football Model

2026-07-28 · 6 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇪🇺 Champions League

KuPS v Sabah FA

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH✈ LONG TRIP: 2,898 KM
1 42%
X 27%
2 31%
Prediction: KuPS to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 41%
Club briefings

KuPS

Kuopio powerhouse: 2024+2025 champions, leaders again mid-2026 (30pts, one loss). Deep squad, European group-stage experience (UECL). Savon Sanomat Areena turf. Three-peat is the base case; Euro-qualifier fatigue the main threat.

Squad quality 36.7 all Europe · Veikkausliiga
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • LA0-1 Sabah FAUCL
  • WA2-0 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • LH2-3 Vardar SkopjeUCL
  • WA2-0 Vardar SkopjeUCL
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,1,2,4,1
Key players Johannes Kreidl 52.2, Petteri Pennanen 42.7, Bob Nii Armah 41.5, Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba 39.3, Taneli Hämäläinen 38.1

Sabah FA

Modern Baku club (Sabah), a rising title challenger; Bank Respublika Arena. UCL entrant (champions route); ambitious, foreign-heavy.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 KuPSUCL
  • WA2-1 The New SaintsUCL
  • WH2-0 The New SaintsUCL
  • LH0-2 Levski SofiaUECL
  • LA0-1 Levski SofiaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 1,2,2,3,1

Lincoln Red Imps FC v Mjallby AIF

✈ LONG TRIP: 2,673 KM
1 20%
X 24%
2 56%
Prediction: Mjallby AIF to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
Club briefings

Lincoln Red Imps FC

Gibraltar's dominant club, serial champions; famed for a 2016 shock of Celtic. Victoria Stadium, artificial turf. Qualified via the Champions League route. Best in the territory.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 Mjallby AIFUCL
  • DA1-1 Inter Club d'EscaldesUCL
  • WH3-1 Inter Club d'EscaldesUCL
  • LA1-4 Legia WarszawaUECL
  • WH2-1 Sigma OlomoucUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 3,5,4,2,3
Key players T. De Barr, B. Lopes, K. Gómez

Mjallby AIF

Solvesborg. Fairytale: fishing-village club (pop ~800, 7.5k Strandvallen) won a first-ever 2025 title with record points, plus the 25/26 cup double. Now in 26/27 UCL qualifiers under new coach Aksum. Elite defensive structure; title retention historically rare.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 36.7 all Europe · Allsvenskan
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • WH3-0 Lincoln Red Imps FCUCL
  • DH0-0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • LH1-2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • DA4-4 SiriusAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 Y match totals 3
Key players Elliot Stroud 50.4, Robin Wallinder 46.9, Axel Norén 43.8, Áki Samuelsen 42.0, Abdoulie Manneh 38.4

Dinamo Zagreb v FC Thun

1 70%
X 21%
2 9%
Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 60%
Club briefings

Dinamo Zagreb

strong at home

Croatia's dominant club, record champions and UCL/UEL group regular; Maksimir Stadium. Qualified via the Champions League route as 25/26 champions. Elite academy (Modrić/Kovačić lineage).

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 55.2 all Europe · HNL
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 FC ThunUCL
  • DH0-0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • WA4-1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • WH2-0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • WA2-1 HNK GoricaHNL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 5,2,4,6,2
Key players Dion Drena Beljo 73.6, Sergi Domínguez 63.1, Scott McKenna 61.7, Josip Mišić 61.4, Stjepan Radeljić 60.6

FC Thun

Bernese Oberland club (Thun) enjoying a remarkable rise into the Champions League route - a breakthrough for the modest Stockhorn Arena side. Overachiever; Alpine setting.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 48.0 all Europe · Swiss Super League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-1 FC LuzernSwiss Super League
  • DH1-1 Dinamo ZagrebUCL
  • DA1-1 FC ST. GallenSwiss Super League
  • LH3-8 BSC Young BoysSwiss Super League
  • LA0-2 FC SionSwiss Super League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYN match totals 5,3,2
Key players Michael Heule 64.9, Genís Montolio 61.2, Jan Bamert 55.4, Nils Reichmuth 51.6, Christopher Ibayi 49.0

Celje v Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1 54%
X 26%
2 21%
Prediction: Celje to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 67%
Club briefings

Celje

Reigning-era force: 24/25 Slovenian champions and a strong 25/26 UECL run; Arena Z'dežele. Qualified via the Champions League route. Attacking, well-coached, sells stars.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA3-3 Egnatia RrogozhinëUCL
  • WA2-0 AEK Athens FCUECL
  • LH0-4 AEK Athens FCUECL
  • WH3-2 DritaUECL
  • WA3-2 DritaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 5,5,4,2,6
Key players F. Kovačević, S. Sluga, M. Kvesić

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Small-town Egnatia, a modern Albanian success story and recent title challenger from tiny Rrogozhinë. Qualified via the Champions League route. Compact ground; overachiever.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH3-3 CeljeUCL
  • WH6-1 PetrocubUCL
  • DA1-1 PetrocubUCL
  • LH2-4 Olimpija LjubljanaUECL
  • DA0-0 Olimpija LjubljanaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 0,4,2,7,6

Heart Of Midlothian v Sturm Graz

1 25%
X 26%
2 50%
Prediction: Sturm Graz to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%
Club briefings

Heart Of Midlothian

strong at home

Edinburgh giant (Hearts), traditionally Scotland's third force; Tynecastle, tight and hostile. UCL/UECL entrant; big fanbase, fan-owned era, European regular.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 44.7 all Europe · Scottish Premiership
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-4 Sturm GrazUCL
  • LA1-3 CelticScottish Premiership
  • WH3-0 FalkirkScottish Premiership
  • DA1-1 MotherwellScottish Premiership
  • WH2-1 RangersScottish Premiership
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,2,2,4,4
Key players Marc Leonard 60.6, Harry Milne 59.1, Craig Halkett 54.4, Blair Spittal 51.9, Stuart Findlay 46.6

Sturm Graz

Back-to-back-era Austrian champions, breaking Salzburg's grip; Merkur Arena, loud Graz support. Qualified via the Champions League route. Strong, well-coached.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 51.0 all Europe · Austrian Bundesliga
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-0 Heart Of MidlothianUCL
  • WH2-0 Rapid ViennaAustrian Bundesliga
  • WA4-2 TSV HartbergAustrian Bundesliga
  • DA1-1 Red Bull SalzburgAustrian Bundesliga
  • DH1-1 Austria ViennaAustrian Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,1,3,1,4
Key players Otar Kiteishvili 68.0, Jeyland Mitchell 59.9, Daniil Khudyakov 56.9, Albert Vallci 55.6, Paul-Friedrich Koller 53.5

Shamrock Rovers v Ararat-Armenia

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH✈ LONG TRIP: 4,033 KM
1 47%
X 26%
2 26%
Prediction: Shamrock Rovers to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 54%
Club briefings

Shamrock Rovers

strong at home

Dublin. Record champions: 2025 title (their latest of a record haul) and UCL qualifying money; Tallaght 8k the league's best setup. 2026: in the hunt but Bohs set the pace. European-run fixture congestion is their recurring handicap.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 27.4 all Europe · Ireland PD
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 Ararat-ArmeniaUCL
  • WH5-1 FlorianaUCL
  • LA0-2 FlorianaUCL
  • WA2-1 Sligo RoversIreland PD
  • WH3-1 Galway UnitedIreland PD
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 4,4,2,6,2
Key players Jack Byrne 39.4, Matthew Healy 37.0, Lee Grace 35.8, Roberto Lopes 33.7, John McGovern 28.0

Ararat-Armenia

Modern Armenian force, several recent titles and European runs; Yerevan-based (~1,000m altitude). Qualified via the Champions League route. Foreign-heavy squad.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 Shamrock RoversUCL
  • LA2-3 RigaUCL
  • WH2-0 RigaUCL
  • LH1-2 Sparta PrahaUECL
  • LA1-4 Sparta PrahaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 5,3,2,5,2