Research · Segunda División
Season-level reference. Single-matchday material has been stripped: this is the shape of the division, not a form guide. Nothing here feeds the model.
Compiled 22 August 2026. Where I've derived a number myself rather than lifted it from a source, I've said so. Manager entries are tagged [V] where verified this week and omitted where I could not verify them rather than guessed.
Model implications.
| Club | Predicted points | Promotion probability | Relegation probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | ~82 | ~85% | 0% |
| Mallorca | 65% | ||
| Castellón | 27% | ||
| Almería | 24% | ||
| Las Palmas | 23% | ||
| Cádiz | ~43 | 61% (relegation favourite) |
Interpretive notes.
Model note on Zaragoza. Their absence removes a club that had been a Segunda fixture for 13 years and whose home fixtures were high-attendance, high-pressure games. Any home-advantage or crowd-effect prior calibrated on recent Segunda seasons should be re-fit.
Alphabetical. Twenty-two clubs.
City: Albacete, Castilla-La Mancha. Ground: Carlos Belmonte (17,300). A long-term Segunda resident with occasional Primera cameos in the 1990s and 2003-05.
Expectation: mid-table to survival.
City: Almería, Andalusia. Ground: Power Horse Stadium (15,000).
Lost the 2026 promotion playoff final to Málaga. Saudi-owned (Turki Al-Sheikh), one of the biggest budgets in the division. Exercised the purchase option on Miguel de la Fuente and renewed Leo Baptistão.
Expectation: promotion contender. Driblab 24%.
Note: the psychological residue of a lost Wembley-equivalent is a real variable, and Almería have now failed at this level repeatedly.
City: Andorra la Vella, Andorra. Ground: Estadi Nacional (3,306). The only non-Spanish club in the division, founded by Gerard Piqué's Kosmos group.
Model note: the smallest ground in the division by some distance, at altitude (~1,000m in the Pyrenees), with a synthetic-adjacent playing surface history and a genuinely unusual travel burden for visiting clubs. This is the clearest per-club venue-effect case in the division and worth an explicit altitude and travel term if your model supports one.
City: Burgos, Castilla y León. Ground: El Plantío (12,000).
Expectation: upper mid-table.
City: Cádiz, Andalusia. Ground: Nuevo Mirandilla (20,724).
Driblab's relegation favourite at 61%, predicted to finish on 43 points. A summer described in the reporting as marked by a surprising coaching change and turnover. Four Primera seasons from 2020 to 2024.
Expectation: the market and the model agree this is the most at-risk big club. Interrogate this one: a 20,724-capacity ground and a recent Primera squad base is not a typical relegation profile.
City: Castellón de la Plana, Valencian Community. Ground: Nou Castàlia (15,500).
Driblab's third-most-likely promotion side at 27%, above Almería and Las Palmas. Promoted to Segunda in 2024 and has consolidated.
Expectation: the model's contrarian pick. Genuine value if your ratings agree.
City: Vigo, Galicia. Ground: Estadio Afouteza / Balaídos. Celta Vigo's B team, promoted via the Primera Federación playoffs as Group 1 runners-up. Cannot be promoted to Primera while the first team is there.
Expectation: survival. Filiales historically struggle in Segunda.
Model note: filiales have extreme squad churn (players promoted to and recalled from the first team mid-season) and no promotion incentive from March onwards. Both should carry explicit terms.
City: Ceuta, North Africa (Spanish autonomous city). Ground: Alfonso Murube (6,500). Second season in Segunda after promotion in 2025.
Model note: every away team has to fly or take a ferry across the Strait of Gibraltar. Ceuta's travel burden on opponents is the second-most distinctive venue effect in the division after Andorra, and it works in Ceuta's favour.
City: Córdoba, Andalusia. Ground: Nuevo Arcángel (21,822). Promoted in 2024 and stabilising. Large ground, large fanbase for the level.
Expectation: mid-table.
City: Eibar, Basque Country. Ground: Ipurua (8,164). The great overachievement story of the 2010s (eight consecutive Primera seasons from a town of 27,000), now in their sixth straight Segunda campaign.
Expectation: survival fight. The model that made Eibar special has decayed.
City: Elda, Alicante. Ground: Nuevo Pepico Amat (~4,000). Promoted as a Primera Federación group champion, back in Segunda after relegation in 2025.
Expectation: relegation favourite alongside Sabadell. One of the smallest budgets and grounds in the division.
City: Girona, Catalonia. Ground: Montilivi (14,624). Manager: Quique Álvarez, promoted from the B team on 20 June 2026 [V].
Driblab's clear favourite: ~82 points, ~85% promotion probability, 0% relegation probability. Relegated from LaLiga on 41 points after their longest ever top-flight run, including the extraordinary third-place Champions League season of 2023/24. Retained a strong squad.
Expectation: champions or automatic promotion.
Note: appointing the filial coach rather than an external name is a cost-controlled, City Football Group-style decision. Girona are part of the CFG network, which is worth flagging given Palermo's position in the Serie B report.
City: Granada, Andalusia. Ground: Nuevo Los Cármenes (19,336). Third season back in Segunda after relegation in 2024. Shipped 0-5 at home to Norwich-style away days repeatedly last season (they were on the wrong end of one of the division's biggest away wins).
Expectation: upper mid-table with promotion ambition on budget, though recent execution has been poor.
City: Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands. Ground: Estadio de Gran Canaria (32,400). Reached the playoffs last season. Presented a new head coach and four signings on 22 June 2026 [V, name not confirmed in my sources]. One of the two largest budgets outside the relegated trio.
Expectation: promotion contender. Driblab 23%.
Model note: Canary Islands travel. Las Palmas and Tenerife both impose a flight on every visiting club, and both play in a different time zone from the peninsula (kick-off times at Gran Canaria are published in peninsular time, which has historically caused confusion in data feeds). Check your fixture timestamps for both Canary clubs.
City: Leganés, Madrid. Ground: Butarque (12,454). Segunda champions in 2023/24, relegated from Primera in 2025.
Expectation: playoff contender.
City: Palma, Balearic Islands. Ground: Son Moix (23,142). Relegated from LaLiga after five consecutive Primera seasons. Driblab's second favourite at 65% promotion probability.
Expectation: automatic promotion contender. US-backed ownership (Andy Kohlberg, with Steve Nash among the investors).
Model note: Balearic travel, same category as the Canary clubs but a shorter flight.
City: Oviedo, Asturias. Ground: Carlos Tartiere (30,500).
Finished bottom of LaLiga on 29 points, back down after one season up following a 24-year absence. 39 Primera seasons and 42 in Segunda historically.
Expectation: promotion contender on paper. The market has them in the top three; Driblab is less enthusiastic than about Girona and Mallorca.
Lore: Mexican investment (Grupo Pachuca) revived a club that had fallen to the third tier in 2003 and been saved by a global crowdfunding campaign in 2012.
City: San Sebastián, Basque Country. Ground: Zubieta (2,500). Real Sociedad's B team. Cannot be promoted. Hosted the season's opening fixture against Castellón on Friday 14 August.
Signing note: the parent club purchased Kita on a deal to 2030 [V], which is the kind of transaction that affects the filial's squad availability.
Expectation: survival. Same filial caveats as Celta Fortuna.
City: Sabadell, Catalonia. Ground: Nova Creu Alta (11,908). Promoted via the Primera Federación playoffs as Group 2 runners-up. Back in Segunda after a long absence.
Expectation: relegation favourite alongside Eldense.
Lore: a founder-era Catalan club with 14 Primera seasons, none since 1988.
City: Gijón, Asturias. Ground: El Molinón (29,029).
El Molinón is the oldest football ground still in use in Spain (1908). Long-term Segunda resident, perennially in the promotion conversation without delivering.
Expectation: playoff fringe.
Lore: the Asturian derby against Real Oviedo returns with both clubs in the same division. This is the single most intense fixture in the division and one of the most policed in Spain.
City: Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands. Ground: Heliodoro Rodríguez López (22,824). Primera Federación group champions. Movistar's analyst explicitly flags them as the division's unknown quantity: promoted from the third tier but with the history and fanbase of a Segunda mainstay.
Expectation: the promoted club most likely to overachieve.
Model note: Canary travel and timestamp caveat as per Las Palmas.
City: Valladolid, Castilla y León. Ground: José Zorrilla (27,846). Segunda champions in 2023/24, relegated from Primera in 2025, and a serial yo-yo club.
Expectation: should be a promotion contender on ground size and history; the early signs and the market do not agree.
Lore: owned by Ronaldo Nazário from 2018 until a 2025 sale, one of the more scrutinised ownership periods in Spanish football.
League-level priors
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Clubs | 22 | Largest division covered. |
| Matchdays | 42 | Longest season covered, running to June. |
| Relegation rate | 4 of 22 (18.2%) | Second-harshest after League One. |
| Promotion rate | 3 of 22 (13.6%) | With two clubs structurally ineligible. |
| Filiales | 2 of 22 | Ineligible for promotion; heavy in-season squad churn. |
| Clubs with recent Primera experience | 10 of 22 | The deepest second tier covered by that measure. |
Structural features to encode
Clubs with distinct markers
Main sources: Wikipedia ES (Segunda División 2025-26 and 2026-27, Primera Federación 2025-26), Wikipedia EN (2026 Primera Federación play-offs), LaLiga official, Movistar Plus, Marca (via secondary reporting), El Desmarque / Driblab, Elopi23, Kirolbet, BetBrothers.