Research · EFL League One
Season-level reference. Single-matchday material has been stripped: this is the shape of the division, not a form guide. Nothing here feeds the model.
Compiled 22 August 2026. Where I've derived a number myself rather than lifted it from a source, I've said so. Manager entries are tagged [V] where verified from sources this week and [bg] where carried from background knowledge and worth verifying before you wire them into anything.
Model implication. The four-down structure means the bottom-half survival fight involves more clubs for longer than in either division above or below. It also means the expected-points cost of a bad start is higher here than anywhere else in the pyramid.
| Club | Title odds (range) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester City | 9/4 to 11/4 | Shortest price anywhere in the EFL |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 6/1 to 7/1 | |
| Luton Town | 8/1 to 9/1 | |
| Plymouth Argyle | 12/1 to 14/1 | |
| Huddersfield Town | 12/1 to 14/1 | |
| Stockport County | 12/1 to 16/1 | |
| Oxford United | 12/1 to 25/1 | Wide spread, see below |
| Bradford City | 14/1 | |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 12/1 to 16/1 | Shortest of the four promoted clubs |
| Notts County | 28/1 | |
| Cambridge United | 50/1 | |
| Bromley | 125/1 to 150/1 | Rank outsiders |
Opta supercomputer (10,000 sims) tells a very different story:
| Club | Opta title % | Opta top-two % |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Argyle | 14.0% | 24.9% |
| Stockport County | 9.9% | 18.8% |
| Leicester City | 8.1% | 15.5% |
| Luton Town | high (favourite group) |
Interpretive notes.
Champions: Lincoln City, 103 points, 89 goals, a 29-game unbeaten run, 12 points clear. That is the headline: a club with the smallest budget and a 10,669-capacity ground produced one of the great third-tier seasons and went to the Championship for the first time since 1961.
Alphabetical.
City: London (Wimbledon, SW17). Ground: Plough Lane (9,215). Manager: Johnnie Jackson [bg]. Second season in League One after the 2025 League Two playoff win. Fan-owned, which makes them structurally unlike anything else at this level.
Expectation: survival, with several tipsters flagging them as a top-six value pick at 7/4 for a playoff finish.
Lore: the phoenix club formed in 2002 after the original Wimbledon was relocated to Milton Keynes. They now share a division with MK Dons again, which is the fixture of the season for anyone who cares about English football's ownership politics.
City: Barnsley, South Yorkshire. Ground: Oakwell (23,287). Manager: Daniel Stendel, returned summer 2026 [V]. Beat Luton 5-0 in November. Stendel returns to the club he took up from League One in 2018/19 with an aggressive, high-pressing style that made him a cult figure.
Expectation: backed by Sporting Life as a promotion value pick despite not featuring in most previews' favourites.
Model note: Stendel's Barnsley teams historically ran extreme pressing metrics. If you have pressing or PPDA features, expect a step change here.
City: Blackpool, Lancashire. Ground: Bloomfield Road (16,500). Manager: Ian Evatt, appointed 21 October 2025 [V]. Steve Bruce departed 4 October 2025, Evatt in from Bolton, where he had won promotion from League Two and reached two Wembley finals.
Expectation: mid-table with playoff upside.
City: Bradford, West Yorkshire. Ground: Valley Parade (24,840). Manager: Graham Alexander [V]. Finished 4th on 77 points and lost the playoff semi to Bolton without scoring in either leg. Alexander is a genuine promotion specialist, having gone up with Fleetwood and Salford earlier in his career.
Expectation: 14/1 title, 2/1 for a top-six finish. One of the better-supported promotion cases in the division.
Lore: Valley Parade holds 24,840 in the third tier and Bradford routinely outdraws Championship clubs. The largest average attendance-to-league-position gap in England.
City: London (Bromley, BR2). Ground: Hayes Lane (5,150). Manager: Andy Woodman [V].
League Two champions with 87 points and a 21-game unbeaten run. In the third tier for the first time in their 134-year history, and this is back-to-back promotions: National League playoff winners in 2024, EFL entry in 2024/25, League Two title in 2025/26.
Expectation: 125/1 to 150/1, rank outsiders, and 33/1 for promotion.
Model note: the smallest ground in the division at 5,150 and by far the smallest revenue base. But their 87-point League Two total was the division's best, and Squawka's projection notes that the market's blanket scepticism about promoted clubs is exactly the kind of blanket assumption that gets beaten once a season.
City: Burton upon Trent, Staffordshire. Ground: Pirelli Stadium (6,912). Manager: Gary Bowyer [V].
Under EFL charges with punishment pending as of the season start. Signings Corey Addai, Curtis Tilt and Gbemi Arubi read well on paper, but the regulatory overhang is the dominant fact.
Expectation: relegation. Tipped at 9/1 to finish bottom, which is short for a 24-team market.
Model note: if a points deduction lands, it lands mid-season. Build the possibility into your relegation probabilities rather than treating it as a shock.
City: Cambridge. Ground: Abbey Stadium (8,127). Manager: Neil Harris [bg]. Promoted automatically in 3rd, straight back up after relegation from League One in 2024/25.
Expectation: 50/1, survival. One of the smaller operations at this level.
City: Doncaster, South Yorkshire. Ground: Eco-Power Stadium (15,231). Manager: Grant McCann [bg]. Second season in League One after the 2024/25 League Two title. Lost Luke Molyneux to Salford City in League Two for an undisclosed fee, which caused real anger among their supporters given the divisional step down.
Expectation: mid-table.
City: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire. Ground: John Smith's Stadium (24,500). Manager: Martin Drury, appointed 27 May 2026 [V].
Three managers in about fourteen months: Lee Grant appointed May 2025 and sacked January 2026, Liam Manning from January 2026 and gone on 11 May 2026 (departed for personal reasons), then Drury. Finished 9th after two wins from their final ten games, described by their own supporters as a heavy underachievement relative to squad investment.
Expectation: 12/1 to 14/1. Drury gets a full season.
Model note: third consecutive young, low-experience appointment. Coaching-stability features should penalise heavily.
City: Leicester. Ground: King Power Stadium (32,312). Manager: Russell Martin [V].
Premier League champions in 2015/16, in the third tier ten years later. Back-to-back relegations: down from the Premier League in 2024/25, then down from the Championship in 2025/26 after a six-point deduction for PSR breaches turned 52 on-pitch points into 46 and 23rd place. Ruud van Nistelrooy left in June 2025, Martí Cifuentes lasted to January 2026, Gary Rowett saw out the season, Martin arrived for the rebuild.
Squad: Oliver Skipp, Stephy Mavididi, Bobby Decordova-Reid and Wes Burns all still on the books. Alex McCarthy signed in goal.
Expectation: market favourite at 9/4 to 11/4. Opta has them at 8.1% for the title. The single biggest divergence in the EFL.
Model note: the comparison being drawn is Wolves 2013/14, who won League One with 103 points after back-to-back relegations. The counter-argument is that Leicester's on-pitch Championship level last season was 52 points, which is not a dominant profile, and that the "losing mentality" problem is real and not captured by squad-value features.
City: London (Leyton, E10). Ground: Brisbane Road (9,271). Manager: Richie Wellens [bg]. Reached the playoff final in 2024/25 (losing to Charlton at Wembley), then slid down the table in 2025/26. Signed Jaze Kabia from Grimsby Town.
Expectation: 7/1 for a top-six finish, flagged by Betway as an interesting price after a summer of recruitment.
City: Luton, Bedfordshire. Ground: Kenilworth Road (12,000). Manager: Jack Wilshere, appointed 13 October 2025 [V].
Premier League in 2023/24, League One two seasons later. Matt Bloomfield sacked 6 October 2025, Wilshere in a week later in his first senior job. He steadied it: 74 points and 7th, one point and one place off the playoffs, after winning their final three games. They also won the EFL Trophy, beating Stockport in the final.
Signings: Kasey Palmer, Harrison Ashby, George Johnston.
Expectation: 8/1 to 9/1 and among Opta's favourites. Squawka's projection has them taking the second automatic spot on continuity grounds: most of the clubs that finished above them last season either went up or lost key players. Star Sports' preview calls them the best team in the division.
Model note: still receiving parachute payments. Continuity plus parachutes plus a full pre-season under Wilshere is the strongest combination available at this level.
City: Mansfield, Nottinghamshire. Ground: Field Mill / One Call Stadium (9,186). Manager: Nigel Clough [bg]. Third season in League One after the 2023/24 promotion.
Expectation: mid-table.
City: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire. Ground: Stadium MK (30,500). Manager: Paul Warne [bg]. Promoted in 2nd on 86 points, one behind Bromley. Signed Ryan Wintle and Daniel Barlaser to add Championship-level midfield quality.
Notable: they recorded the highest League Two attendance of 2025/26 (23,465 v Harrogate) and three of the division's biggest away wins, all 4-0 or better.
Expectation: 12/1 to 16/1, shortest of the four promoted clubs. Squawka projects 11th and flags the top six as reachable if the recruitment carries.
Lore: the relocated Wimbledon franchise. Sharing a division with AFC Wimbledon again is the most politically charged fixture in English football.
City: Nottingham. Ground: Meadow Lane (19,841). Manager: Martin Paterson, appointed 22 June 2025 [V]. Promoted via the League Two playoffs, beating Salford City 3-0 at Wembley, having finished 5th. Stuart Maynard was sacked in May 2025 before Paterson took over.
Expectation: 28/1, and Betfair's tipster recommends them at 11/4 for relegation, so opinion is split.
Lore: the oldest professional football club in the world, founded 1862. Meadow Lane at 19,841 in the third tier is another significant attendance-to-level outlier.
City: Oxford. Ground: Kassam Stadium (12,500). Manager: Aaron Ramsey, appointed 23 June 2026 [V]. Relegated in 22nd on 47 points, four points from safety. Gary Rowett out December 2025, Matt Bloomfield in January 2026 and then surprisingly out on 20 June 2026, and Aaron Ramsey appointed three days later in his first permanent managerial role. He has confirmed his playing career is over.
The problem: Oxford are under a transfer embargo for failing to meet EFL Salary Cost Management Protocol requirements and have been unable to sign anyone. A rookie manager, a relegated squad, and no reinforcements.
Expectation: drifted from 12/1 to 25/1. Relegation risk is real.
Model note: the embargo is the dominant variable. A club that cannot replace departures over a 46-game season with four relegation places is in a structurally bad position regardless of coaching.
City: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire. Ground: London Road / Weston Homes Stadium (15,314). Manager: Luke Williams, appointed 26 October 2025 [V]. Darragh MacAnthony's club, always active in the market and always selling. Recorded five of the division's biggest home wins last season, including 6-1 v Wigan and three separate 5-0s.
Expectation: mid-table with high home variance.
Model note: the most extreme home-scoring profile in the division. Worth a per-club home attacking term.
City: Plymouth, Devon. Ground: Home Park (17,900). Manager: Tom Cleverley, appointed 13 June 2025 [V]. Finished on six unbeaten games and missed the playoffs by two points. Lost top scorer Lorent Tolaj (22 goals) to Bristol City for around £4m.
Expectation: 12/1 to 14/1 in the market, but Opta's outright favourite: title in 14.0% of sims, top two in 24.9%. They win the league in marginally more simulations than anyone else.
Model note: this is the value side of the Leicester divergence. If your model agrees with Opta that Plymouth are the strongest side by recent performance, the market price is generous.
City: Reading, Berkshire. Ground: Select Car Leasing Stadium (24,161). Manager: appointed October 2025 following Noel Hunt's departure on 26 October [V, name not confirmed in my sources]. Rob Couhig's ownership stabilised the club after years of crisis under Dai Yongge.
Expectation: mid-table.
City: Sheffield. Ground: Hillsborough (39,732). Manager: Henrik Pedersen, appointed 31 July 2025 [V].
The most damaged club in the EFL. Filed for administration on 24 October 2025 (-12 points), took a further -6 on 1 December for failing to meet payment obligations. They earned 18 points on the pitch and finished the Championship season on zero. A 39-game winless run and a 13-game losing run. Their home game against Middlesbrough in October drew 7,081, the division's lowest attendance, in a 39,732-seat stadium.
Rebuild signs: Barry Bannan returned from Millwall, and Louie Barry signed from Aston Villa for an undisclosed fee on a four-year deal, which is a genuine statement.
Pedersen's win rate over the last twelve months is 5.9%. He starts under pressure.
Expectation: 6/1 to 7/1, second favourite. Bet365 rate them 2/1 for promotion, which several previews prefer to the title price.
Model note: any strength rating derived from 2025/26 will read Sheffield Wednesday as the worst team in the history of the modern EFL. That is a measure of an unpaid, collapsing squad, not of the club that will play this season. Consider a manual reset or heavy shrinkage toward a squad-value prior.
Lore: Hillsborough is the largest ground in League One by a margin and hosted FA Cup semi-finals for decades.
City: Stevenage, Hertfordshire. Ground: Lamex Stadium (7,800). Manager: Alex Revell [bg].
Reached the playoffs ahead of Luton last season, which is the fact most previews use to illustrate how little squad budget predicts at this level.
Expectation: mid-table to playoff fringe. Consistently punches above weight.
City: Stockport, Greater Manchester. Ground: Edgeley Park (10,852). Manager: Jimmy McNulty, appointed following Dave Challinor's departure on 1 June 2026 [V].
Lost the playoff final 4-1 to Bolton at Wembley and also lost the EFL Trophy final to Luton. Then lost Challinor, the architect of three promotions, and their CEO.
McNulty is a former Stockport player who got Rochdale back into the EFL from the National League last season, which is a strong recent credential.
Expectation: 12/1 to 16/1 in the market, but Opta backs McNulty hard: top two in 18.8% of sims, title in 9.9%, both above Leicester.
Model note: the market is pricing the losses (manager, CEO, half the playoff final team per their own supporters). Opta is pricing the squad and the coach's promotion record. Genuine disagreement worth resolving.
City: Wigan, Greater Manchester. Ground: Brick Community Stadium (25,138). Manager: Gary Caldwell, appointed 16 February 2026 [V], his second spell. Ryan Lowe sacked 7 February 2026 after eleven months. Shipped a 6-1 defeat at Peterborough.
Expectation: mid-table. Regularly fancied, regularly disappoints.
Lore: FA Cup winners in 2013, relegated from the Premier League the same season, then two administrations and two points deductions since.
City: High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire. Ground: Adams Park (10,137). Manager: Mike Duff, appointed 18 September 2025 [V]. Reached the League One playoff semi-finals in 2024/25 (losing to Charlton). Michael Dodds was sacked in September 2025 with Duff replacing him.
Expectation: mid-table to playoff fringe.
League-level priors from 2025/26
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per match | 2.60 | Almost identical to the Championship (2.61) and Serie B (2.56). |
| Points to win | 103 (Lincoln) | Unusually high. The ten-year League One average is closer to 90. |
| Winning margin | 12 points | A runaway, not a race. |
| Relegation quota | 4 of 24 | Highest in the EFL. Survival threshold is higher than in either neighbouring division. |
| Top scorer | 23 (Dom Ballard) | Same figure as the Championship's top scorer. |
Structural features worth encoding
Clubs with distinct markers
I have used 15 August.
Main sources: Wikipedia (2025/26 and 2026/27 EFL League One, 2025/26 EFL, 2026 EFL play-offs), Opta Analyst supercomputer projections, Sky Sports EFL preview, Squawka, Betfair, bet365 News, William Hill News, Betway, Sporting Life, Star Sports, LiveScore, Football League World, club official sites.